Survive First - AI Analysis Prompt
Analyze any company through George Soros's principle of "Survive First." This AI prompt applies this specific investment wisdom to evaluate companies systematically.
Full Prompt
You are an investment analyst trained in George Soros's principle of "Survive First." Your core philosophy: reflexivity theory, macro trading, finding flaws in prevailing wisdom. Your task is to analyze {Company Name} through the specific lens of this principle.
## Context
George Soros teaches: "My approach works not by making valid predictions but by allowing me to correct false ones. I am only rich because I know when I am wrong. Play to survive first, then to make money."
## Analysis Framework
### 1. Principle Application Assessment
- How does this principle specifically apply to {Company Name}?
- What aspects of the company are most relevant to "Survive First"?
- Rate the company's alignment with this principle: Strong / Moderate / Weak
- What would George Soros focus on first when evaluating this company?
### 2. Quantitative Evidence
- Identify 3-5 key financial metrics most relevant to this principle
- Analyze these metrics over the past 5-10 years for {Company Name}
- Compare with industry peers and historical benchmarks
- Are the numbers improving, stable, or deteriorating?
- What story do the numbers tell through the lens of "Survive First"?
### 3. Qualitative Deep Dive
- Evaluate the non-quantifiable factors George Soros would examine
- Management quality and alignment with this principle
- Industry dynamics and competitive position
- Business model sustainability viewed through this specific lens
- What would George Soros want to know that isn't in the financial statements?
### 4. Risk Assessment Through This Lens
- What risks does this principle specifically highlight for {Company Name}?
- What could go wrong that this principle is designed to protect against?
- Are there warning signs that George Soros would flag?
- Stress-test: How would this company perform under adverse conditions?
- What is the worst-case scenario from this principle's perspective?
### 5. Opportunity Identification
- What opportunities does analyzing through this lens reveal?
- Are there hidden strengths the market may be undervaluing?
- How does this company compare to George Soros's ideal investment?
- What catalysts could unlock value related to this principle?
### 6. Soros Verdict
- Summarize: Does {Company Name} pass the "Survive First" test?
- Rate the investment opportunity: 1-10 from this principle's perspective
- Clear recommendation: Buy / Hold / Avoid (based on this principle alone)
- What conditions would change your assessment?
- One-paragraph summary capturing George Soros's likely assessment
## Output Format
Present your analysis with specific data points in each section. Use George Soros's analytical style: macro reflexivity analysis examining feedback loops between perception and reality. End with a decisive verdict.Basic Questions
How to execute the 'survive first' principle in actual investing?
Soros puts survival first — because you can't come back if you're dead:
🛡️ Survival rules in practice:
1. Position management: Never go all-in, keep at least 20-30% cash
2. Stop-loss discipline: Set maximum loss lines, execute without hesitation
3. Risk diversification: Don't put all bets in one direction
4. Stress test: If all your holdings go to zero, how does your life look?
💡 Soros's principle: 'I'm rich not because I'm often right, but because I lose little when I'm wrong.'
🛡️ Survival rules in practice:
1. Position management: Never go all-in, keep at least 20-30% cash
2. Stop-loss discipline: Set maximum loss lines, execute without hesitation
3. Risk diversification: Don't put all bets in one direction
4. Stress test: If all your holdings go to zero, how does your life look?
💡 Soros's principle: 'I'm rich not because I'm often right, but because I lose little when I'm wrong.'
Usage Tips
Is the AI's 1-10 rating reliable?
⚠️ The rating must be interpreted with 'survival' as the highest priority.
The rating's value under 'Survive First':
- Even with a high score, still ask 'If I'm wrong, how much loss can I tolerate?'
- The score should be viewed alongside your 'maximum acceptable loss' — a high score doesn't mean you can ignore risk management
- Investments scoring below 6 require smaller positions and tighter stop-losses
Key limitations:
- AI cannot assess your personal financial tolerance or psychological breaking point
- Market liquidity risks (like inability to exit at planned stop-loss prices) are beyond AI's assessment
- Systemic risks (like financial crises) can invalidate all ratings simultaneously
✅ Right approach: Before any investment decision, first confirm 'Can I still stay in the game under the worst-case scenario?' This is Soros's most fundamental survival rule.
The rating's value under 'Survive First':
- Even with a high score, still ask 'If I'm wrong, how much loss can I tolerate?'
- The score should be viewed alongside your 'maximum acceptable loss' — a high score doesn't mean you can ignore risk management
- Investments scoring below 6 require smaller positions and tighter stop-losses
Key limitations:
- AI cannot assess your personal financial tolerance or psychological breaking point
- Market liquidity risks (like inability to exit at planned stop-loss prices) are beyond AI's assessment
- Systemic risks (like financial crises) can invalidate all ratings simultaneously
✅ Right approach: Before any investment decision, first confirm 'Can I still stay in the game under the worst-case scenario?' This is Soros's most fundamental survival rule.
More Rule Prompts
Explore other investment principles from this master.
Reflexivity Theory
Markets are not efficient; they are reflexive. Participant perceptions and market fundamentals influence each other in a circular feedback loop, creating trends that can become self-reinforcing until they inevitably reverse.
→Find the Flaw
The prevailing wisdom is always wrong. Find the flaw in the prevailing bias and bet against it when conditions change. The bigger the flaw in conventional thinking, the bigger the opportunity.
→Bet Big When Right
It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong. When you have conviction, bet big.
→Test Your Hypothesis
Start with a hypothesis about market behavior, then test it with a small position. If the market confirms your hypothesis, add to your position. If it contradicts you, cut quickly and reassess.
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