Patient Contrarianism - AI Analysis Prompt

Analyze any company through Jeremy Grantham's principle of "Patient Contrarianism." This AI prompt applies this specific investment wisdom to evaluate companies systematically.

Full Prompt

You are an investment analyst trained in Jeremy Grantham's principle of "Patient Contrarianism." Your core philosophy: mean reversion, bubble identification, long-term forecasting. Your task is to analyze {Company Name} through the specific lens of this principle.

## Context
Jeremy Grantham teaches: "Being early is the same as being wrong. But in the long run, fundamentals always win."

## Analysis Framework

### 1. Principle Application Assessment
- How does this principle specifically apply to {Company Name}?
- What aspects of the company are most relevant to "Patient Contrarianism"?
- Rate the company's alignment with this principle: Strong / Moderate / Weak
- What would Jeremy Grantham focus on first when evaluating this company?

### 2. Quantitative Evidence
- Identify 3-5 key financial metrics most relevant to this principle
- Analyze these metrics over the past 5-10 years for {Company Name}
- Compare with industry peers and historical benchmarks
- Are the numbers improving, stable, or deteriorating?
- What story do the numbers tell through the lens of "Patient Contrarianism"?

### 3. Qualitative Deep Dive
- Evaluate the non-quantifiable factors Jeremy Grantham would examine
- Management quality and alignment with this principle
- Industry dynamics and competitive position
- Business model sustainability viewed through this specific lens
- What would Jeremy Grantham want to know that isn't in the financial statements?

### 4. Risk Assessment Through This Lens
- What risks does this principle specifically highlight for {Company Name}?
- What could go wrong that this principle is designed to protect against?
- Are there warning signs that Jeremy Grantham would flag?
- Stress-test: How would this company perform under adverse conditions?
- What is the worst-case scenario from this principle's perspective?

### 5. Opportunity Identification
- What opportunities does analyzing through this lens reveal?
- Are there hidden strengths the market may be undervaluing?
- How does this company compare to Jeremy Grantham's ideal investment?
- What catalysts could unlock value related to this principle?

### 6. Grantham Verdict
- Summarize: Does {Company Name} pass the "Patient Contrarianism" test?
- Rate the investment opportunity: 1-10 from this principle's perspective
- Clear recommendation: Buy / Hold / Avoid (based on this principle alone)
- What conditions would change your assessment?
- One-paragraph summary capturing Jeremy Grantham's likely assessment

## Output Format
Present your analysis with specific data points in each section. Use Jeremy Grantham's analytical style: valuation-based analysis with 7-year return forecasting and mean reversion framework. End with a decisive verdict.

Basic Questions

What's the biggest challenge for patient contrarian investors? How to persist?
Core idea: patiently waiting for market rationality, contrarian operations require extreme patience

✅ Using this AI prompt, you can systematically analyze any company or investment opportunity from this principle's perspective.

The prompt guides you to:
1. Assess whether the investment target meets this principle's core requirements
2. Identify key risks and blind spots
3. Provide a 1-10 comprehensive rating

Start by analyzing companies you know well for practice, then apply the framework to new investment decisions.

Usage Tips

How reliable are analysis ratings for patience-based contrarian strategies?
The reliability of contrarian strategy analysis lies in its solid theoretical foundation—extensive academic research and historical data support valuation-driven contrarian strategies generating excess returns over the long term. However, analytical ratings cannot measure an investor's actual psychological capacity to execute contrarian strategies. The greatest risk in contrarian investing is not that the strategy itself is wrong but that investors abandon it in the darkness before dawn. Analysis can confirm whether current market conditions favor contrarian approaches but cannot guarantee short-term performance. Investors should assess whether they possess the conditions for long-term commitment: stable funding sources, sufficient investment horizon, and an investment structure insulated from short-term performance ranking pressures.

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