Commodities Cycles - AI Analysis Prompt
Use this Jim Rogers rule prompt to apply “Commodities Cycles” to a specific company. It turns a vague opinion into a repeatable checklist: what facts you must verify, which assumptions matter most, what would invalidate the thesis, and the common misreads that create false certainty. Expect a written output you can save: a thesis summary, key risks, and next-step questions for filings and earnings calls. If a claim matters, require primary-source citations before you act. Educational only — not investment advice.
Full Prompt
You are an investment analyst trained in Jim Rogers's principle of "Commodities Cycles." Your core philosophy: commodities cycles, global macro, buy hysteria. Your task is to analyze {Company Name} through the specific lens of this principle.
## Context
Jim Rogers teaches: "Commodities move in long cycles. Buy when nobody wants them; sell when everyone does."
## Analysis Framework
### 1. Principle Application Assessment
- How does this principle specifically apply to {Company Name}?
- What aspects of the company are most relevant to "Commodities Cycles"?
- Rate the company's alignment with this principle: Strong / Moderate / Weak
- What would Jim Rogers focus on first when evaluating this company?
### 2. Quantitative Evidence
- Identify 3-5 key financial metrics most relevant to this principle
- Analyze these metrics over the past 5-10 years for {Company Name}
- Compare with industry peers and historical benchmarks
- Are the numbers improving, stable, or deteriorating?
- What story do the numbers tell through the lens of "Commodities Cycles"?
### 3. Qualitative Deep Dive
- Evaluate the non-quantifiable factors Jim Rogers would examine
- Management quality and alignment with this principle
- Industry dynamics and competitive position
- Business model sustainability viewed through this specific lens
- What would Jim Rogers want to know that isn't in the financial statements?
### 4. Risk Assessment Through This Lens
- What risks does this principle specifically highlight for {Company Name}?
- What could go wrong that this principle is designed to protect against?
- Are there warning signs that Jim Rogers would flag?
- Stress-test: How would this company perform under adverse conditions?
- What is the worst-case scenario from this principle's perspective?
### 5. Opportunity Identification
- What opportunities does analyzing through this lens reveal?
- Are there hidden strengths the market may be undervaluing?
- How does this company compare to Jim Rogers's ideal investment?
- What catalysts could unlock value related to this principle?
### 6. Rogers Verdict
- Summarize: Does {Company Name} pass the "Commodities Cycles" test?
- Rate the investment opportunity: 1-10 from this principle's perspective
- Clear recommendation: Buy / Hold / Avoid (based on this principle alone)
- What conditions would change your assessment?
- One-paragraph summary capturing Jim Rogers's likely assessment
## Output Format
Present your analysis with specific data points in each section. Use Jim Rogers's analytical style: global macro analysis focusing on supply-demand dynamics and cycles. End with a decisive verdict.Related reading (close the loop)
Pick one path below to turn the output into a checkable, repeatable decision policy.
- Read the matching principleDefinition, boundaries, pitfalls, and a minimal checklist.
- Master profileMethodology summary + common misreads for this framework.
- Practice in scenariosTranslate conclusions into “what I do under stress”.
- More prompts from this masterTriangulate with multiple rules instead of anchoring on one prompt.
Educational only. Verify facts with primary sources and apply your own constraints.
Basic Questions
What patterns exist in long-term commodity cycles? How to leverage them?
Core idea: understanding and leveraging long-term commodity cycles
✅ Using this AI prompt, you can systematically analyze any company or investment opportunity from this principle's perspective.
The prompt guides you to:
1. Assess whether the investment target meets this principle's core requirements
2. Identify key risks and blind spots
3. Provide a 1-10 comprehensive rating
Start by analyzing companies you know well for practice, then apply the framework to new investment decisions.
✅ Using this AI prompt, you can systematically analyze any company or investment opportunity from this principle's perspective.
The prompt guides you to:
1. Assess whether the investment target meets this principle's core requirements
2. Identify key risks and blind spots
3. Provide a 1-10 comprehensive rating
Start by analyzing companies you know well for practice, then apply the framework to new investment decisions.
Usage Tips
Are AI commodity cycle judgments accurate?
⚠️ Commodity cycles are very long (10-20 years); AI's shorter-term view may be insufficient.
Value: Integrates global supply-demand data, cross-commodity analysis, quantifies trends.
Limitations: Geopolitics are unpredictable, Rogers visited 60+ countries personally, energy transition may break historical patterns.
✅ Use AI for data trends, but cycle judgment needs your own long-term perspective. Rogers: "I only invest in what I understand — and understanding requires extensive research."
Value: Integrates global supply-demand data, cross-commodity analysis, quantifies trends.
Limitations: Geopolitics are unpredictable, Rogers visited 60+ countries personally, energy transition may break historical patterns.
✅ Use AI for data trends, but cycle judgment needs your own long-term perspective. Rogers: "I only invest in what I understand — and understanding requires extensive research."
Getting started
Does this prompt give investment advice or buy/sell calls?
No. It is a research helper that turns your thinking into checkable inputs and constraints: what evidence you must verify, what would prove the thesis wrong, and what common misreads to avoid. Treat the output as a draft, not a signal. Validate every material number against primary sources (filings, earnings releases, investor presentations, transcripts), and do not act unless you can write down (1) position-size limits and (2) explicit invalidation triggers.
What inputs should I provide for a reliable result?
At minimum: a 1-sentence business model summary, your current thesis (why it wins/loses), time horizon, and risk constraints; a valuation/price range; and the latest financial statements (profit quality, cash flow, debt/liquidity). Add context that reduces hallucinations: the exact filing period, known one-offs, key competitors, and what you do NOT know yet. If an input is missing, label it as missing evidence instead of letting the model guess.
Validation and boundaries
How do I validate the output?
Validate falsifiable claims one by one. Rewrite each key statement into something you can check: the metric, the period, and the source. Numbers must match filings; management claims must be traceable to transcripts/guidance; and “moat” claims need observable evidence (pricing power, retention, switching costs, cost structure). Anything you cannot verify becomes a follow-up task, not a decision trigger. If the model cites dates, confirm they are not beyond its knowledge cutoff.
When should I NOT act on the output?
If you cannot write down invalidation triggers, a position-size cap, or primary-source evidence for the key claims behind “Commodities Cycles”, do not act. The safer move is usually to reduce size, slow down, and schedule the next review.
More Rule Prompts
Explore other investment principles from this master.
Global Investing
The best opportunities are often outside your home country. Look at the whole world.
→Do Your Homework
Research exhaustively before investing. The person who knows the most usually wins.
→Buy Hysteria
Buy when there is blood in the streets, even if it is your own. Panic creates opportunity.
→Emerging Markets
Emerging markets offer better growth prospects than developed markets. Look East and South.
→