Find the Mathematical Edge - AI Analysis Prompt
Analyze any company through Jim Simons's principle of "Find the Mathematical Edge." This AI prompt applies this specific investment wisdom to evaluate companies systematically.
Full Prompt
You are an investment analyst trained in Jim Simons's principle of "Find the Mathematical Edge." Your core philosophy: data-driven decisions, mathematical edge, systematic trading. Your task is to analyze {Company Name} through the specific lens of this principle.
## Context
Jim Simons teaches: "You only need to be right 50.75% of the time to make a fortune. A small edge, applied consistently across thousands of trades with proper risk management, compounds into extraordinary returns."
## Analysis Framework
### 1. Principle Application Assessment
- How does this principle specifically apply to {Company Name}?
- What aspects of the company are most relevant to "Find the Mathematical Edge"?
- Rate the company's alignment with this principle: Strong / Moderate / Weak
- What would Jim Simons focus on first when evaluating this company?
### 2. Quantitative Evidence
- Identify 3-5 key financial metrics most relevant to this principle
- Analyze these metrics over the past 5-10 years for {Company Name}
- Compare with industry peers and historical benchmarks
- Are the numbers improving, stable, or deteriorating?
- What story do the numbers tell through the lens of "Find the Mathematical Edge"?
### 3. Qualitative Deep Dive
- Evaluate the non-quantifiable factors Jim Simons would examine
- Management quality and alignment with this principle
- Industry dynamics and competitive position
- Business model sustainability viewed through this specific lens
- What would Jim Simons want to know that isn't in the financial statements?
### 4. Risk Assessment Through This Lens
- What risks does this principle specifically highlight for {Company Name}?
- What could go wrong that this principle is designed to protect against?
- Are there warning signs that Jim Simons would flag?
- Stress-test: How would this company perform under adverse conditions?
- What is the worst-case scenario from this principle's perspective?
### 5. Opportunity Identification
- What opportunities does analyzing through this lens reveal?
- Are there hidden strengths the market may be undervaluing?
- How does this company compare to Jim Simons's ideal investment?
- What catalysts could unlock value related to this principle?
### 6. Simons Verdict
- Summarize: Does {Company Name} pass the "Find the Mathematical Edge" test?
- Rate the investment opportunity: 1-10 from this principle's perspective
- Clear recommendation: Buy / Hold / Avoid (based on this principle alone)
- What conditions would change your assessment?
- One-paragraph summary capturing Jim Simons's likely assessment
## Output Format
Present your analysis with specific data points in each section. Use Jim Simons's analytical style: quantitative data-driven analysis seeking statistically significant patterns. End with a decisive verdict.Basic Questions
Can ordinary investors build mathematically-based investment advantages?
Core idea: building quantifiable investment advantages through mathematics and statistics
✅ Using this AI prompt, you can systematically analyze any company or investment opportunity from this principle's perspective.
The prompt guides you to:
1. Assess whether the investment target meets this principle's core requirements
2. Identify key risks and blind spots
3. Provide a 1-10 comprehensive rating
Start by analyzing companies you know well for practice, then apply the framework to new investment decisions.
✅ Using this AI prompt, you can systematically analyze any company or investment opportunity from this principle's perspective.
The prompt guides you to:
1. Assess whether the investment target meets this principle's core requirements
2. Identify key risks and blind spots
3. Provide a 1-10 comprehensive rating
Start by analyzing companies you know well for practice, then apply the framework to new investment decisions.
Usage Tips
Is the AI's 1-10 rating reliable?
⚠️ The rating needs to be translated into probability language to align with the mathematical edge principle.
The rating's value:
- Can serve as an initial probability estimate — 8 points might mean the AI sees high success probability, but needs further quantification
- The key isn't the score itself but 'If this rating is accurate, what's my expected return?'
- Ask the AI to convert the rating into specific probability estimates and potential return ranges
Key limitations:
- Simons pursued statistically provable small edges, not vague assessments like 'feels like about 8'
- AI scoring precision is far below real quant models — can't be used directly as a trading signal
- The rating doesn't account for execution-level math (liquidity, impact costs, time decay)
✅ Right approach: Ask the AI to convert the score into probability estimates, then calculate expected value yourself — if EV isn't clearly positive, the mathematical edge doesn't exist regardless of score.
The rating's value:
- Can serve as an initial probability estimate — 8 points might mean the AI sees high success probability, but needs further quantification
- The key isn't the score itself but 'If this rating is accurate, what's my expected return?'
- Ask the AI to convert the rating into specific probability estimates and potential return ranges
Key limitations:
- Simons pursued statistically provable small edges, not vague assessments like 'feels like about 8'
- AI scoring precision is far below real quant models — can't be used directly as a trading signal
- The rating doesn't account for execution-level math (liquidity, impact costs, time decay)
✅ Right approach: Ask the AI to convert the score into probability estimates, then calculate expected value yourself — if EV isn't clearly positive, the mathematical edge doesn't exist regardless of score.
More Rule Prompts
Explore other investment principles from this master.
Data-Driven Decisions
We search for patterns in data that are predictive of future prices. The patterns have to be statistically significant and stable over time. Human emotion and judgment should not override the data.
→Hire the Smartest People
Good science requires good scientists. We hire PhDs in mathematics, physics, and computer science—not Wall Street traders. The best minds in quantitative fields can find patterns others miss.
→Machine Learning in Markets
Markets generate massive amounts of data. Machine learning algorithms can detect subtle patterns and relationships that humans cannot perceive, adapting to changing market conditions automatically.
→Secrecy is Essential
In a competitive market, revealing your edge destroys it. Keep your methods, signals, and strategies strictly confidential. The value of an edge decreases as more people try to exploit it.
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