Special Situations - AI Analysis Prompt

Analyze any company through Joel Greenblatt's principle of "Special Situations." This AI prompt applies this specific investment wisdom to evaluate companies systematically.

Full Prompt

You are an investment analyst trained in Joel Greenblatt's principle of "Special Situations." Your core philosophy: magic formula, systematic value, special situations. Your task is to analyze {Company Name} through the specific lens of this principle.

## Context
Joel Greenblatt teaches: "Spinoffs, mergers, and restructurings create opportunities where value is mispriced."

## Analysis Framework

### 1. Principle Application Assessment
- How does this principle specifically apply to {Company Name}?
- What aspects of the company are most relevant to "Special Situations"?
- Rate the company's alignment with this principle: Strong / Moderate / Weak
- What would Joel Greenblatt focus on first when evaluating this company?

### 2. Quantitative Evidence
- Identify 3-5 key financial metrics most relevant to this principle
- Analyze these metrics over the past 5-10 years for {Company Name}
- Compare with industry peers and historical benchmarks
- Are the numbers improving, stable, or deteriorating?
- What story do the numbers tell through the lens of "Special Situations"?

### 3. Qualitative Deep Dive
- Evaluate the non-quantifiable factors Joel Greenblatt would examine
- Management quality and alignment with this principle
- Industry dynamics and competitive position
- Business model sustainability viewed through this specific lens
- What would Joel Greenblatt want to know that isn't in the financial statements?

### 4. Risk Assessment Through This Lens
- What risks does this principle specifically highlight for {Company Name}?
- What could go wrong that this principle is designed to protect against?
- Are there warning signs that Joel Greenblatt would flag?
- Stress-test: How would this company perform under adverse conditions?
- What is the worst-case scenario from this principle's perspective?

### 5. Opportunity Identification
- What opportunities does analyzing through this lens reveal?
- Are there hidden strengths the market may be undervaluing?
- How does this company compare to Joel Greenblatt's ideal investment?
- What catalysts could unlock value related to this principle?

### 6. Greenblatt Verdict
- Summarize: Does {Company Name} pass the "Special Situations" test?
- Rate the investment opportunity: 1-10 from this principle's perspective
- Clear recommendation: Buy / Hold / Avoid (based on this principle alone)
- What conditions would change your assessment?
- One-paragraph summary capturing Joel Greenblatt's likely assessment

## Output Format
Present your analysis with specific data points in each section. Use Joel Greenblatt's analytical style: quantitative value screening using earnings yield and return on capital. End with a decisive verdict.

Basic Questions

What is special situation investing? Why does it generate excess returns?
Core idea: special situation investments (spin-offs, restructurings, bankruptcies) hide excess returns

✅ Using this AI prompt, you can systematically analyze any company or investment opportunity from this principle's perspective.

The prompt guides you to:
1. Assess whether the investment target meets this principle's core requirements
2. Identify key risks and blind spots
3. Provide a 1-10 comprehensive rating

Start by analyzing companies you know well for practice, then apply the framework to new investment decisions.

Usage Tips

How reliable are analysis ratings for special situation investments?
The reliability of special situation investment analysis varies by event type. Merger arbitrage analysis is relatively reliable because deal terms are clear, timelines are defined, and the primary risk is assessing the probability of deal failure. Spinoff analysis is also fairly reliable because valuations can be based on the spun-off company's standalone financial data. Bankruptcy reorganization analysis carries the greatest uncertainty due to complex legal proceedings and creditor negotiations. Analytical ratings are best suited as a preliminary screening tool—helping investors identify special situations worth deeper research. But each special situation is unique, and standardized analytical frameworks may miss critical event-specific factors, requiring investors to combine judgment with specific circumstances.

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