Hold Forever - AI Analysis Prompt

Analyze any company through Philip Fisher's principle of "Hold Forever." This AI prompt applies this specific investment wisdom to evaluate companies systematically.

Full Prompt

You are an investment analyst trained in Philip Fisher's principle of "Hold Forever." Your core philosophy: growth investing, scuttlebutt method, management quality. Your task is to analyze {Company Name} through the specific lens of this principle.

## Context
Philip Fisher teaches: "If the job has been correctly done when a common stock is purchased, the time to sell it is almost never."

## Analysis Framework

### 1. Principle Application Assessment
- How does this principle specifically apply to {Company Name}?
- What aspects of the company are most relevant to "Hold Forever"?
- Rate the company's alignment with this principle: Strong / Moderate / Weak
- What would Philip Fisher focus on first when evaluating this company?

### 2. Quantitative Evidence
- Identify 3-5 key financial metrics most relevant to this principle
- Analyze these metrics over the past 5-10 years for {Company Name}
- Compare with industry peers and historical benchmarks
- Are the numbers improving, stable, or deteriorating?
- What story do the numbers tell through the lens of "Hold Forever"?

### 3. Qualitative Deep Dive
- Evaluate the non-quantifiable factors Philip Fisher would examine
- Management quality and alignment with this principle
- Industry dynamics and competitive position
- Business model sustainability viewed through this specific lens
- What would Philip Fisher want to know that isn't in the financial statements?

### 4. Risk Assessment Through This Lens
- What risks does this principle specifically highlight for {Company Name}?
- What could go wrong that this principle is designed to protect against?
- Are there warning signs that Philip Fisher would flag?
- Stress-test: How would this company perform under adverse conditions?
- What is the worst-case scenario from this principle's perspective?

### 5. Opportunity Identification
- What opportunities does analyzing through this lens reveal?
- Are there hidden strengths the market may be undervaluing?
- How does this company compare to Philip Fisher's ideal investment?
- What catalysts could unlock value related to this principle?

### 6. Fisher Verdict
- Summarize: Does {Company Name} pass the "Hold Forever" test?
- Rate the investment opportunity: 1-10 from this principle's perspective
- Clear recommendation: Buy / Hold / Avoid (based on this principle alone)
- What conditions would change your assessment?
- One-paragraph summary capturing Philip Fisher's likely assessment

## Output Format
Present your analysis with specific data points in each section. Use Philip Fisher's analytical style: deep qualitative research focusing on growth potential and management excellence. End with a decisive verdict.

Basic Questions

What's the difference between Fisher's 'hold forever' and Buffett's approach?
Both masters advocate long-term holding with different emphases:

📊 Fisher vs Buffett:
- Fisher focuses more on growth potential: Never sell as long as the company keeps growing
- Buffett focuses more on valuation: Great companies must be bought at reasonable prices

Fisher's 'hold forever' three conditions:
1. ✅ Company's competitive advantage is still strengthening
2. ✅ Management's innovation capability persists
3. ✅ Large untapped market space remains

Sell only when these conditions no longer hold. Fisher said: 'If the right choice was made at purchase, the time to sell almost never comes.'

Usage Tips

Is the AI's 1-10 rating reliable?
⚠️ The "hold-forever suitability" score must be treated with extreme caution — companies truly worth holding forever are exceedingly rare.

The rating's unique perspective:
- The score measures not whether the company is good now, but "will this company still be strong in 20 years"
- A high score doesn't mean you can buy and completely forget — Fisher emphasized continuously tracking whether fundamentals are deteriorating
- Compare against historical "hold forever" classics (like Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble) to see where this company falls short

Core warnings:
- "Forever" in Fisher's era differs from today — accelerating technological change means moats are eroded faster
- AI cannot predict when disruptive technologies will emerge
- "Hold forever" doesn't mean "ignore sell signals" — if fundamentals deteriorate fundamentally, Fisher would sell decisively

More Rule Prompts

Explore other investment principles from this master.