📖Benjamin Graham

Avoid Speculation

🌿 Intermediate★★★★☆

Stay within your circle of competence and resist the allure of unfamiliar investments promising higher returns.

💬

The defensive investor will avoid the temptation to stray into the unknown in search of higher returns.

— _The Intelligent Investor_，1949

🏠 Everyday Analogy

Just as a seasoned traditional Chinese medicine practitioner only treats ailments within their expertise and never ventures into unfamiliar, complex diseases for profit, the same principle applies to investing. It is better to miss an opportunity than to recklessly pursue exorbitant gains in areas one does not understand.

📖 Core Interpretation

Defensive investors must resist the temptation to chase high returns and remain firmly within their circle of competence.
💎 Key Insight：The defensive investor's strength is knowing what to avoid. Graham warns against venturing into complex or unfamiliar securities in pursuit of higher yields. Every step beyond your competence increases the probability of unrecoverable mistakes. The returns from discipline and patience ultimately exceed those from adventurism.

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❓ Why It Matters

Pursuing high returns often entails high risks, and venturing beyond one's circle of competence is even more perilous.

🎯 How to Practice

Establish strict investment rules, and when faced with temptation, ask yourself whether it meets the criteria.

🎙️ Master's Voice

Diversification is an established tenet of conservative investment.
Graham advocated diversification for defensive investors. Spreading risk protected against any single mistake destroying the portfolio.

⚔️ Practical Guide

✅ Decision Checklist

  • Am I adequately diversified?
  • Is concentration appropriate for my skill?
  • Is risk spread?

📋 Action Steps

  1. Diversify for safety
  2. Spread across sectors
  3. Limit position sizes

🚨 Warning Signs

  • Excessive concentration
  • Single stock risk
  • Undiversified portfolio

⚠️ Common Pitfalls

✕It's painful to watch others make money.
✕But discipline must be upheld.

📚 Case Studies

1
Dot-com Bubble Hype (1999)
An investor buys unprofitable internet stocks solely on momentum, ignoring earnings, valuation, and balance sheets, expecting quick riches.
✨ Outcome：Bubble bursts in 2000; portfolio loses over 80%. A Graham-style focus on intrinsic value and margins of safety would have avoided most positions.
2
Meme Stock Frenzy (2021)
Retail traders speculate in heavily shorted stocks driven by social media, not fundamentals, treating shares like lottery tickets.
✨ Outcome：Early buyers profit, latecomers face steep losses as prices collapse. A Graham-style investor avoids the craze, preserving capital and waiting for sound, undervalued businesses.

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