📖Warren Buffett

Dollar Cost Averaging

🌱 Beginner★★★★★

For most investors, regular investing in index funds beats active stock picking.

💬

If you like spending six to eight hours per week working on investments, do it. If you don't, then dollar-cost average into index funds.

— 2008 Berkshire Hathaway Letter to Shareholders，2009

🏠 Everyday Analogy

Just as one makes monthly mortgage payments on time regardless of whether housing prices rise or fall, the same principle applies to dollar-cost averaging. Regardless of market conditions, a fixed amount is invested at regular intervals each month. This approach leverages the power of time to smooth out market volatility, ultimately accumulating substantial returns through consistent, incremental contributions.

📖 Core Interpretation

For most people, regularly investing a fixed amount in index funds is the best strategy. It is simple, effective, and avoids the pitfalls of market timing.
💎 Key Insight：Buffett famously bet — and won — that an S&P 500 index fund would outperform hedge funds over 10 years. For investors without the time or skill for deep analysis, dollar-cost averaging into low-cost index funds is the optimal strategy. It removes emotion, minimizes costs, and captures the long-term growth of the entire economy.

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❓ Why It Matters

Advantages: 1. No market timing required 2. Automatic purchasing 3. Cost averaging 4. Discipline cultivation 5. Substantial long-term returns

🎯 How to Practice

Invest a fixed amount in an index fund on a fixed date each month, regardless of market fluctuations.

🎙️ Master's Voice

By periodically investing in an index fund, the know-nothing investor can actually out-perform most investment professionals.
In 2008, Buffett bet $1 million that an S&P 500 index fund would beat a portfolio of hedge funds over 10 years. He won decisively. The index fund returned 7.1% annually while the hedge funds returned only 2.2%. Buffett donated his winnings to charity and proved that simplicity beats complexity for most investors.

⚔️ Practical Guide

✅ Decision Checklist

  • Am I beating the index over 5+ years?
  • Do I have the time for active investing?
  • Are my fees eating my returns?
  • Is active investing costing me sleep?

📋 Action Steps

  1. Compare your returns to a simple index fund
  2. Calculate your total costs including time
  3. Consider indexing at least part of your portfolio
  4. Dollar-cost average into index funds regularly

🚨 Warning Signs

  • Paying high fees for underperformance
  • Active trading without tracking results
  • Believing you can beat the market without evidence
  • Spending excessive time on stock picking

⚠️ Common Pitfalls

✕Low Returns from Dollar-Cost Averaging? – Over the long term, dollar-cost averaging into index funds can outperform most actively managed funds.
✕When the market is high, one should suspend regular investing - Maintain the discipline of regular investing, buying less when prices are high and more when prices are low.

📚 Case Studies

1
Warren Buffett's Advice for the Average Investor (2009)
Repeatedly Recommending the S&P 500 Index Fund
✨ Outcome：Simple and effective, with substantial long-term returns.
2
The Power of Compound Interest in Dollar-Cost Averaging (2009)
Monthly fixed investment, consistently maintained for 30 years.
✨ Outcome：can accumulate substantial wealth

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