📖Duan Yongping
Learn from Past Sells
Post-mortem every sell decision to improve.
After every sell, review the outcome. Did you sell too early, too late, or at the right time? Post-mortems on sell decisions improve future judgment.
🏠 Everyday Analogy
📖 Core Interpretation
Duan Yongping sees markets as cyclical rather than linear. Understanding cycle position improves risk-taking decisions more than trying to call exact tops and bottoms.
💎 Key Insight：Reviewing sell decisions sharpens future timing.
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❓ Why It Matters
Ignoring cycles repeats the same mistakes: excessive optimism at peaks and excessive pessimism near troughs. Context matters for position sizing.
🎯 How to Practice
Monitor credit, valuation, earnings, and sentiment signals; reduce aggressiveness in euphoric phases and preserve flexibility in fearful phases.
⚠️ Common Pitfalls
Treating short rebounds as full cycle turns
Extrapolating peak conditions indefinitely
Becoming maximally defensive near valuation troughs
📚 Case Studies
1
Charity Lunch with Buffett (2006)
Paid over USD 600,000 for a charity lunch with Warren Buffett to learn value investing and long-term thinking.
✨ Outcome：Reinforced focus on intrinsic value, circle of competence, and doing the right things over chasing short-term gains.
2
Investment in NetEase (2005)
Duan Yongping recognized NetEase’s strong gaming ecosystem and loyal user base as a durable moat and invested heavily when the market doubted its sustainability.
✨ Outcome：NetEase’s profits and market share grew significantly, and the stock multiplied over the next decade.
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