📖Duan Yongping
Process-Oriented Investing
Good process outperforms lucky outcomes over time.
Focus on process, not outcomes. A good process can produce bad outcomes in the short run, but will generate superior results over time.
🏠 Everyday Analogy
📖 Core Interpretation
Duan Yongping sees markets as cyclical rather than linear. Understanding cycle position improves risk-taking decisions more than trying to call exact tops and bottoms.
💎 Key Insight：Process discipline is more reliable than chasing results.
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❓ Why It Matters
Ignoring cycles repeats the same mistakes: excessive optimism at peaks and excessive pessimism near troughs. Context matters for position sizing.
🎯 How to Practice
Monitor credit, valuation, earnings, and sentiment signals; reduce aggressiveness in euphoric phases and preserve flexibility in fearful phases.
⚠️ Common Pitfalls
Treating short rebounds as full cycle turns
Extrapolating peak conditions indefinitely
Becoming maximally defensive near valuation troughs
📚 Case Studies
1
Tencent Regulation and Gaming Freeze (2018)
China froze new game approvals, hitting Tencent’s core business and causing a steep share price decline and broad pessimism.
✨ Outcome：Duan maintained a long‑term view on Tencent’s ecosystem and network effects; the stock recovered as approvals resumed and business normalized.
2
Berkshire Hathaway Purchase (2006)
Duan applied his ‘simple is better’ approach by buying Berkshire Hathaway, focusing on Buffett’s track record, business quality, and capital allocation, without overanalyzing macro forecasts or short-term earnings.
✨ Outcome：Long-term holding appreciated significantly, reinforcing his conviction in concentrated, high-quality, understandable investments.
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