📖Warren Buffett

Gradual Position Building

🌿 Intermediate★★★★☆

Build positions gradually rather than trying to time the perfect entry point.

💬

I never try to buy at the bottom and I always buy too early. But that doesn't matter because I have long-term goals.

— 2008 Berkshire Hathaway Letter to Shareholders，2008

🏠 Everyday Analogy

Just like at a buffet, don’t fill your plate all at once—instead, make several trips to select dishes. The first round may offer average choices, but there will be chances later to pick better ones. The same applies to investing: buying in batches may not guarantee the lowest price each time, but it helps average out costs and reduces the risk of making a single poorly-timed investment.

📖 Core Interpretation

Do not attempt to buy at the absolute lowest point. Build positions in batches to reduce timing risk while preserving more opportunities.
💎 Key Insight：Nobody consistently buys at the exact bottom. Buffett acknowledges he often buys "too early" — but it doesn't matter because his time horizon is decades. Building a position over weeks or months averages out your entry price and removes the pressure of perfect timing. Long-term goals make short-term entry prices irrelevant.

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❓ Why It Matters

No one can accurately predict the bottom. Buying in batches allows for both market participation and risk control.

🎯 How to Practice

Strategy: After determining the total position size, establish the position in 3-5 increments. Add to the position during price declines, and reduce the pace or halt additions during price advances.

🎙️ Master's Voice

I never attempt to make money on the stock market. I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.
When Buffett started buying Apple in 2016, he didn't buy all at once. He accumulated shares over several quarters, building his position as he grew more confident. By spreading purchases, he reduced timing risk and allowed himself to learn more about the business as he invested.

⚔️ Practical Guide

✅ Decision Checklist

  • Am I trying to time the perfect entry?
  • Would I be upset if the price drops after buying?
  • Have I planned for multiple entry points?
  • Is my position size appropriate for my conviction level?

📋 Action Steps

  1. Divide your intended position into 3-5 tranches
  2. Set price levels for each tranche
  3. Buy more as your conviction increases
  4. Use time diversification (buy over months, not minutes)

🚨 Warning Signs

  • Going all-in on the first purchase
  • Trying to catch the exact bottom
  • Paralysis waiting for lower prices
  • Changing your mind after small price movements

⚠️ Common Pitfalls

✕Buying at the absolute lowest point is impossible; a phased approach is more prudent.
✕Buying too early is a mistake - If the price is below intrinsic value, buying early is not a problem.

📚 Case Studies

1
Investing in Wells Fargo (2008)
Gradually Building Positions Over the Years
✨ Outcome：Became one of the core holdings
2
Gradually building positions starting in 2008 (2008)
Purchased in Batches During the Financial Crisis
✨ Outcome：Do not attempt to time the bottom; build positions gradually.

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