📖Benjamin Graham

Price Returns to Value

🌿 Intermediate★★★★★

Market cycles of overvaluation and undervaluation repeat endlessly as human psychology remains constant.

💬

In the financial markets, history repeats itself in a never-ending cycle of boom and bust.

— _Security Analysis_，1934

🏠 Everyday Analogy

Just like a pendulum, market prices always oscillate around intrinsic value. At times, it swings toward the extreme of greed, driving stock prices to dizzying heights; at other times, it swings toward the extreme of fear, dumping high-quality stocks at bargain-basement prices. But no matter how far it swings, the pendulum always returns to its center—this is the power of value reversion.

📖 Core Interpretation

Prices ultimately revert to their intrinsic value; this is a fundamental principle of the market.
💎 Key Insight：Bubbles and crashes are not anomalies but inherent features of markets driven by human emotion. Graham's framework assumes prices will deviate substantially from value in both directions and eventually revert. Position your portfolio to survive extremes and capitalize on the inevitable return to rational pricing.

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❓ Why It Matters

The cycle of boom and bust is eternal, but value serves as the anchor.

🎯 How to Practice

Buy when the price is significantly below its intrinsic value and wait for convergence; the reverse applies as well.

🎙️ Master's Voice

Mr. Market does not mind being ignored. He will return tomorrow with a new price.
Graham noted that there is no penalty for patience. Mr. Market returns every day with new offers. Time is on the investor's side.

⚔️ Practical Guide

✅ Decision Checklist

  • Am I patient?
  • Can I wait for better prices?
  • Am I using time to my advantage?

📋 Action Steps

  1. Be patient
  2. Wait for attractive prices
  3. Use time as advantage

🚨 Warning Signs

  • Impatience
  • Rushing to trade
  • Not waiting

⚠️ Common Pitfalls

✕The recovery may take a long time.
✕Patience and capital support are required.

📚 Case Studies

1
Northern Pipe Lines Mispricing (1921)
Pipeline company traded far below liquidation value despite strong assets and earnings, ignored by market pessimism after WWI.
✨ Outcome：Graham bought at deep discount, price rose toward intrinsic value over several years, delivering substantial capital gains.
2
Geico Early Investment (1933)
Young insurer with strong underwriting and growth sold at low multiple due to being little-known and market distrust of small insurers.
✨ Outcome：Graham purchased as a bargain; over the following decade, business value grew and market re-rated the stock, producing exceptional long-term returns.

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