📖Warren Buffett

Value Reversion

🌿 Intermediate★★★★☆

Short-term prices are driven by sentiment, but long-term prices always converge to business value.

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In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.

— 2004 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting，2004

🏠 Everyday Analogy

The stock market is like the price of cabbage at a vegetable market. On a rainy day when there are fewer customers, good cabbage may not fetch a good price; the next day, due to rumors of price hikes, even poor-quality cabbage may be snapped up. But over time, good cabbage will always be worth more than bad cabbage—this is the market’s weighing mechanism at work.

📖 Core Interpretation

In the short term, prices are determined by sentiment and voting, while in the long term, they are determined by the true intrinsic value of the enterprise. Price will ultimately converge to value.
💎 Key Insight：In any given week, stock prices are driven by headlines, emotions, and momentum. Over five or ten years, they're driven by earnings, cash flows, and dividends. This is why value investing works: if you buy a business for less than it's worth, time is your friend. The market is a voting machine today, but a weighing machine tomorrow.

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❓ Why It Matters

This gives patient investors an advantage: stocks undervalued in the short term will be repriced by the market over the long run.

🎯 How to Practice

When making a purchase, consider: How large is the gap between price and value? How long will it take for convergence to occur? What catalysts exist to drive this process?

🎙️ Master's Voice

In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.
When Buffett bought Coca-Cola in 1988, the stock had lagged the market for years. Critics called it a slow-growing, overvalued company. But Buffett saw the franchise value. Over the next 35 years, the investment returned over 20x, proving that fundamentals eventually prevail over sentiment.

⚔️ Practical Guide

✅ Decision Checklist

  • Am I focused on business value or stock price?
  • Can I hold this investment for 5+ years?
  • Would I buy this business if the stock market closed?
  • Am I ignoring short-term price fluctuations?

📋 Action Steps

  1. Value the business, then forget the stock price
  2. Check stock prices infrequently
  3. Focus on earnings growth, not price movements
  4. Hold quality businesses through volatility

🚨 Warning Signs

  • Checking stock prices multiple times daily
  • Selling due to price drops without fundamental change
  • Making decisions based on price momentum
  • Confusing stock performance with business performance

⚠️ Common Pitfalls

✕Value will inevitably be recognized — this holds true in the long run, but the "long run" may be very long indeed.
✕Buy when the price is below intrinsic value — but also consider the margin of safety and the time to reversion.

📚 Case Studies

1
Coca-Cola (1998)
Stock price remained virtually unchanged from 1998 to 2016.
✨ Outcome：Ultimately, value was realized, driving the stock price to a record high.
2
Value Trap (2004)
Some Companies Appear Cheap
✨ Outcome：However, its value continues to decline and will never recover.

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