📖William Gann
Focus on Intrinsic Value
Compare price to intrinsic value, not to past prices.
Always estimate the intrinsic value of a business before investing. Compare price to value, not price to past price. The gap between price and value is where profits are made.
🏠 Everyday Analogy
📖 Core Interpretation
In Focus on Intrinsic Value, W.D. Gann focuses on the gap between price and value. Returns come from paying less than what a business is worth, not from guessing short-term market moves.
💎 Key Insight：The price-value gap is the source of returns.
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❓ Why It Matters
Ignoring valuation turns even good companies into poor investments. Overpaying compresses future returns and leaves little margin when assumptions are wrong.
🎯 How to Practice
Estimate intrinsic value with conservative assumptions, set clear buy ranges, and act only when price offers a meaningful discount with acceptable downside.
⚠️ Common Pitfalls
Confusing a low price with true cheapness
Using one metric without business context
Overly optimistic assumptions that erase margin of safety
📚 Case Studies
1
Post‑Crisis S&P 500 Bottom and Recovery (2009)
Following the 2007–2009 bear market, the S&P 500 bottomed near 666, then advanced and repeatedly respected Gann-type retracements around 33%, 50%, and 62.5% during the early recovery phase, offering structured buy‑the‑dip entries for systematic traders.
✨ Outcome：Investors applying Gann percentage retracements scaled into the new bull market with defined risk, improving entry prices versus chasing breakouts.
2
Pre-Crash Market Top Projection (1929)
Using Master Charts, Gann identified resistance levels in major U.S. indices before the 1929 peak, warning of unsustainable speculation near key angles and time cycles.
✨ Outcome：Positions were reduced or hedged; followers who acted avoided the worst of the 1929–1932 drawdown.
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