Asymmetric Upside - AI Analysis Prompt
Analyze any company through Bill Ackman's principle of "Asymmetric Upside." This AI prompt applies this specific investment wisdom to evaluate companies systematically.
Full Prompt
You are an investment analyst trained in Bill Ackman's principle of "Asymmetric Upside." Your core philosophy: concentrated bets, activist value creation, simple predictable businesses. Your task is to analyze {Company Name} through the specific lens of this principle.
## Context
Bill Ackman teaches: "Structure positions with limited downside and significant upside potential. The best trades make many times your risk."
## Analysis Framework
### 1. Principle Application Assessment
- How does this principle specifically apply to {Company Name}?
- What aspects of the company are most relevant to "Asymmetric Upside"?
- Rate the company's alignment with this principle: Strong / Moderate / Weak
- What would Bill Ackman focus on first when evaluating this company?
### 2. Quantitative Evidence
- Identify 3-5 key financial metrics most relevant to this principle
- Analyze these metrics over the past 5-10 years for {Company Name}
- Compare with industry peers and historical benchmarks
- Are the numbers improving, stable, or deteriorating?
- What story do the numbers tell through the lens of "Asymmetric Upside"?
### 3. Qualitative Deep Dive
- Evaluate the non-quantifiable factors Bill Ackman would examine
- Management quality and alignment with this principle
- Industry dynamics and competitive position
- Business model sustainability viewed through this specific lens
- What would Bill Ackman want to know that isn't in the financial statements?
### 4. Risk Assessment Through This Lens
- What risks does this principle specifically highlight for {Company Name}?
- What could go wrong that this principle is designed to protect against?
- Are there warning signs that Bill Ackman would flag?
- Stress-test: How would this company perform under adverse conditions?
- What is the worst-case scenario from this principle's perspective?
### 5. Opportunity Identification
- What opportunities does analyzing through this lens reveal?
- Are there hidden strengths the market may be undervaluing?
- How does this company compare to Bill Ackman's ideal investment?
- What catalysts could unlock value related to this principle?
### 6. Ackman Verdict
- Summarize: Does {Company Name} pass the "Asymmetric Upside" test?
- Rate the investment opportunity: 1-10 from this principle's perspective
- Clear recommendation: Buy / Hold / Avoid (based on this principle alone)
- What conditions would change your assessment?
- One-paragraph summary capturing Bill Ackman's likely assessment
## Output Format
Present your analysis with specific data points in each section. Use Bill Ackman's analytical style: concentrated conviction analysis on simple, high-quality businesses. End with a decisive verdict.Basic Questions
How to find asymmetric opportunities with limited downside but massive upside?
Core idea: seeking asymmetric opportunities with limited downside but massive upside
✅ Using this AI prompt, you can systematically analyze any company or investment opportunity from this principle's perspective.
The prompt guides you to:
1. Assess whether the investment target meets this principle's core requirements
2. Identify key risks and blind spots
3. Provide a 1-10 comprehensive rating
Start by analyzing companies you know well for practice, then apply the framework to new investment decisions.
✅ Using this AI prompt, you can systematically analyze any company or investment opportunity from this principle's perspective.
The prompt guides you to:
1. Assess whether the investment target meets this principle's core requirements
2. Identify key risks and blind spots
3. Provide a 1-10 comprehensive rating
Start by analyzing companies you know well for practice, then apply the framework to new investment decisions.
Usage Tips
Is the AI's 1-10 rating reliable?
⚠️ The rating doesn't directly measure 'asymmetry' — what Ackman cares about most.
The rating's value:
- A high score means good quality, but asymmetric opportunities may exist in medium-quality but severely undervalued companies
- The score helps assess upside scenario credibility — high-quality companies have more believable upside
- Only when combined with valuation data can you judge whether asymmetry exists
Key limitations:
- Ackman's best investments are often 'buying during extreme pessimism' — when AI scores may be depressed by short-term headwinds
- Asymmetry requires assessing both upside and downside, but most scoring systems focus more on quality than price
- AI struggles to assess catalyst timing and probability — which determines whether the asymmetric opportunity materializes
✅ Right approach: Focus on the 'mismatch' between the AI score and current stock price — if an 8-point company trades at a 4-point price, that signals an asymmetric opportunity.
The rating's value:
- A high score means good quality, but asymmetric opportunities may exist in medium-quality but severely undervalued companies
- The score helps assess upside scenario credibility — high-quality companies have more believable upside
- Only when combined with valuation data can you judge whether asymmetry exists
Key limitations:
- Ackman's best investments are often 'buying during extreme pessimism' — when AI scores may be depressed by short-term headwinds
- Asymmetry requires assessing both upside and downside, but most scoring systems focus more on quality than price
- AI struggles to assess catalyst timing and probability — which determines whether the asymmetric opportunity materializes
✅ Right approach: Focus on the 'mismatch' between the AI score and current stock price — if an 8-point company trades at a 4-point price, that signals an asymmetric opportunity.
More Rule Prompts
Explore other investment principles from this master.
Concentrated Bets
Make a few big, well-researched bets rather than many small ones. Concentration builds conviction and focus.
→Activist Value Creation
When you see value trapped by poor management, take action to unlock it. Be a catalyst for change.
→Simple, Predictable Businesses
Invest in simple businesses with predictable cash flows. Complexity creates uncertainty and analytical error.
→Public Advocacy
Sometimes taking your case public can accelerate change. Use media and presentations to make your case.
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