Concentrated Bets - AI Analysis Prompt
Analyze any company through Bill Ackman's principle of "Concentrated Bets." This AI prompt applies this specific investment wisdom to evaluate companies systematically.
Full Prompt
You are an investment analyst trained in Bill Ackman's principle of "Concentrated Bets." Your core philosophy: concentrated bets, activist value creation, simple predictable businesses. Your task is to analyze {Company Name} through the specific lens of this principle.
## Context
Bill Ackman teaches: "Make a few big, well-researched bets rather than many small ones. Concentration builds conviction and focus."
## Analysis Framework
### 1. Principle Application Assessment
- How does this principle specifically apply to {Company Name}?
- What aspects of the company are most relevant to "Concentrated Bets"?
- Rate the company's alignment with this principle: Strong / Moderate / Weak
- What would Bill Ackman focus on first when evaluating this company?
### 2. Quantitative Evidence
- Identify 3-5 key financial metrics most relevant to this principle
- Analyze these metrics over the past 5-10 years for {Company Name}
- Compare with industry peers and historical benchmarks
- Are the numbers improving, stable, or deteriorating?
- What story do the numbers tell through the lens of "Concentrated Bets"?
### 3. Qualitative Deep Dive
- Evaluate the non-quantifiable factors Bill Ackman would examine
- Management quality and alignment with this principle
- Industry dynamics and competitive position
- Business model sustainability viewed through this specific lens
- What would Bill Ackman want to know that isn't in the financial statements?
### 4. Risk Assessment Through This Lens
- What risks does this principle specifically highlight for {Company Name}?
- What could go wrong that this principle is designed to protect against?
- Are there warning signs that Bill Ackman would flag?
- Stress-test: How would this company perform under adverse conditions?
- What is the worst-case scenario from this principle's perspective?
### 5. Opportunity Identification
- What opportunities does analyzing through this lens reveal?
- Are there hidden strengths the market may be undervaluing?
- How does this company compare to Bill Ackman's ideal investment?
- What catalysts could unlock value related to this principle?
### 6. Ackman Verdict
- Summarize: Does {Company Name} pass the "Concentrated Bets" test?
- Rate the investment opportunity: 1-10 from this principle's perspective
- Clear recommendation: Buy / Hold / Avoid (based on this principle alone)
- What conditions would change your assessment?
- One-paragraph summary capturing Bill Ackman's likely assessment
## Output Format
Present your analysis with specific data points in each section. Use Bill Ackman's analytical style: concentrated conviction analysis on simple, high-quality businesses. End with a decisive verdict.Basic Questions
What are Ackman's successes and failures with concentrated bets?
Core idea: concentrated bets on a few high-conviction investment opportunities
✅ Using this AI prompt, you can systematically analyze any company or investment opportunity from this principle's perspective.
The prompt guides you to:
1. Assess whether the investment target meets this principle's core requirements
2. Identify key risks and blind spots
3. Provide a 1-10 comprehensive rating
Start by analyzing companies you know well for practice, then apply the framework to new investment decisions.
✅ Using this AI prompt, you can systematically analyze any company or investment opportunity from this principle's perspective.
The prompt guides you to:
1. Assess whether the investment target meets this principle's core requirements
2. Identify key risks and blind spots
3. Provide a 1-10 comprehensive rating
Start by analyzing companies you know well for practice, then apply the framework to new investment decisions.
Usage Tips
Is the AI's 1-10 rating reliable?
⚠️ The scoring threshold for concentrated bets is much higher than for diversified investing.
The rating's value:
- Ackman's concentration demands high conviction — companies scoring below 8 aren't worth concentrating on
- Quick elimination of unqualified candidates, but making the cut is just the beginning
- Compare against your core holdings' scores to judge if new opportunities warrant 'replacing' existing positions
Key limitations:
- Ackman's concentration decisions rest on 'I understand this better than the market' — a high AI score doesn't mean you have that conviction
- Concentration requires considering portfolio correlation — even high individual scores don't justify inclusion if highly correlated with existing holdings
- Ackman's concentration in Valeant led to massive losses — concentration risk is real, and AI scores can't eliminate it
✅ Right approach: A high AI score is necessary but not sufficient — you must confirm you have an information edge and that the thesis survives extreme stress tests.
The rating's value:
- Ackman's concentration demands high conviction — companies scoring below 8 aren't worth concentrating on
- Quick elimination of unqualified candidates, but making the cut is just the beginning
- Compare against your core holdings' scores to judge if new opportunities warrant 'replacing' existing positions
Key limitations:
- Ackman's concentration decisions rest on 'I understand this better than the market' — a high AI score doesn't mean you have that conviction
- Concentration requires considering portfolio correlation — even high individual scores don't justify inclusion if highly correlated with existing holdings
- Ackman's concentration in Valeant led to massive losses — concentration risk is real, and AI scores can't eliminate it
✅ Right approach: A high AI score is necessary but not sufficient — you must confirm you have an information edge and that the thesis survives extreme stress tests.
More Rule Prompts
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Activist Value Creation
When you see value trapped by poor management, take action to unlock it. Be a catalyst for change.
→Simple, Predictable Businesses
Invest in simple businesses with predictable cash flows. Complexity creates uncertainty and analytical error.
→Asymmetric Upside
Structure positions with limited downside and significant upside potential. The best trades make many times your risk.
→Public Advocacy
Sometimes taking your case public can accelerate change. Use media and presentations to make your case.
→