Don't Peek - AI Analysis Prompt
Use this John Bogle rule prompt to apply “Don't Peek” to a specific company. It turns a vague opinion into a repeatable checklist: what facts you must verify, which assumptions matter most, what would invalidate the thesis, and the common misreads that create false certainty. Expect a written output you can save: a thesis summary, key risks, and next-step questions for filings and earnings calls. If a claim matters, require primary-source citations before you act. Educational only — not investment advice.
Full Prompt
You are an investment analyst trained in John Bogle's principle of "Don't Peek." Your core philosophy: index investing, low costs, long-term simplicity. Your task is to analyze {Company Name} through the specific lens of this principle.
## Context
John Bogle teaches: "Don't peek at your portfolio constantly. The more you look, the more likely you are to make an emotional mistake."
## Analysis Framework
### 1. Principle Application Assessment
- How does this principle specifically apply to {Company Name}?
- What aspects of the company are most relevant to "Don't Peek"?
- Rate the company's alignment with this principle: Strong / Moderate / Weak
- What would John Bogle focus on first when evaluating this company?
### 2. Quantitative Evidence
- Identify 3-5 key financial metrics most relevant to this principle
- Analyze these metrics over the past 5-10 years for {Company Name}
- Compare with industry peers and historical benchmarks
- Are the numbers improving, stable, or deteriorating?
- What story do the numbers tell through the lens of "Don't Peek"?
### 3. Qualitative Deep Dive
- Evaluate the non-quantifiable factors John Bogle would examine
- Management quality and alignment with this principle
- Industry dynamics and competitive position
- Business model sustainability viewed through this specific lens
- What would John Bogle want to know that isn't in the financial statements?
### 4. Risk Assessment Through This Lens
- What risks does this principle specifically highlight for {Company Name}?
- What could go wrong that this principle is designed to protect against?
- Are there warning signs that John Bogle would flag?
- Stress-test: How would this company perform under adverse conditions?
- What is the worst-case scenario from this principle's perspective?
### 5. Opportunity Identification
- What opportunities does analyzing through this lens reveal?
- Are there hidden strengths the market may be undervaluing?
- How does this company compare to John Bogle's ideal investment?
- What catalysts could unlock value related to this principle?
### 6. Bogle Verdict
- Summarize: Does {Company Name} pass the "Don't Peek" test?
- Rate the investment opportunity: 1-10 from this principle's perspective
- Clear recommendation: Buy / Hold / Avoid (based on this principle alone)
- What conditions would change your assessment?
- One-paragraph summary capturing John Bogle's likely assessment
## Output Format
Present your analysis with specific data points in each section. Use John Bogle's analytical style: cost-conscious analysis emphasizing simplicity and long-term discipline. End with a decisive verdict.Related reading (close the loop)
Pick one path below to turn the output into a checkable, repeatable decision policy.
- Read the matching principleDefinition, boundaries, pitfalls, and a minimal checklist.
- Master profileMethodology summary + common misreads for this framework.
- Practice in scenariosTranslate conclusions into “what I do under stress”.
- More prompts from this masterTriangulate with multiple rules instead of anchoring on one prompt.
Educational only. Verify facts with primary sources and apply your own constraints.
Basic Questions
How does the 'don't peek' strategy help you avoid emotional trading?
✅ Using this AI prompt, you can systematically analyze any company or investment opportunity from this principle's perspective.
The prompt guides you to:
1. Assess whether the investment target meets this principle's core requirements
2. Identify key risks and blind spots
3. Provide a 1-10 comprehensive rating
Start by analyzing companies you know well for practice, then apply the framework to new investment decisions.
Usage Tips
Is the AI's 1-10 rating reliable?
The rating's unique logic:
- Bogle's classic finding: If you check your stock portfolio daily, roughly 46% of days you'll see losses, but if you only check annual returns, losing years are only about 25%
- A high score means you can resist the temptation to constantly check, reducing emotional trading
- A low score warns you may be caught in a "over-monitoring → emotional volatility → impulsive trading" vicious cycle
Bogle's insight:
- The shorter the timeframe, the lower the signal-to-noise ratio — daily volatility is almost entirely noise; annual trends are the signal
- Every check depletes your "discipline capital" — frequent checking eventually leads to irrational decisions
- AI can help design automated checking mechanisms to reduce unnecessary "peeking"
Getting started
Does this prompt give investment advice or buy/sell calls?
What inputs should I provide for a reliable result?
Validation and boundaries
How do I validate the output?
When should I NOT act on the output?
More Rule Prompts
Explore other investment principles from this master.
Enough
There is no amount of money that will ever be enough for someone who doesn't know what enough is. Define your enough.
→Bond Allocation Rule
A rough rule: hold your age in bonds. A 30-year-old might hold 30% bonds, a 60-year-old 60% bonds.
→Asset Allocation
Your asset allocation - the mix of stocks, bonds, and cash - is the most important investment decision you'll make.
→Reversion to the Mean
Fund returns tend to revert to the mean. Yesterday's winners become tomorrow's losers, and vice versa.
→