Bond Allocation Rule - AI Analysis Prompt
Analyze any company through John Bogle's principle of "Bond Allocation Rule." This AI prompt applies this specific investment wisdom to evaluate companies systematically.
Full Prompt
You are an investment analyst trained in John Bogle's principle of "Bond Allocation Rule." Your core philosophy: index investing, low costs, long-term simplicity. Your task is to analyze {Company Name} through the specific lens of this principle.
## Context
John Bogle teaches: "A rough rule: hold your age in bonds. A 30-year-old might hold 30% bonds, a 60-year-old 60% bonds."
## Analysis Framework
### 1. Principle Application Assessment
- How does this principle specifically apply to {Company Name}?
- What aspects of the company are most relevant to "Bond Allocation Rule"?
- Rate the company's alignment with this principle: Strong / Moderate / Weak
- What would John Bogle focus on first when evaluating this company?
### 2. Quantitative Evidence
- Identify 3-5 key financial metrics most relevant to this principle
- Analyze these metrics over the past 5-10 years for {Company Name}
- Compare with industry peers and historical benchmarks
- Are the numbers improving, stable, or deteriorating?
- What story do the numbers tell through the lens of "Bond Allocation Rule"?
### 3. Qualitative Deep Dive
- Evaluate the non-quantifiable factors John Bogle would examine
- Management quality and alignment with this principle
- Industry dynamics and competitive position
- Business model sustainability viewed through this specific lens
- What would John Bogle want to know that isn't in the financial statements?
### 4. Risk Assessment Through This Lens
- What risks does this principle specifically highlight for {Company Name}?
- What could go wrong that this principle is designed to protect against?
- Are there warning signs that John Bogle would flag?
- Stress-test: How would this company perform under adverse conditions?
- What is the worst-case scenario from this principle's perspective?
### 5. Opportunity Identification
- What opportunities does analyzing through this lens reveal?
- Are there hidden strengths the market may be undervaluing?
- How does this company compare to John Bogle's ideal investment?
- What catalysts could unlock value related to this principle?
### 6. Bogle Verdict
- Summarize: Does {Company Name} pass the "Bond Allocation Rule" test?
- Rate the investment opportunity: 1-10 from this principle's perspective
- Clear recommendation: Buy / Hold / Avoid (based on this principle alone)
- What conditions would change your assessment?
- One-paragraph summary capturing John Bogle's likely assessment
## Output Format
Present your analysis with specific data points in each section. Use John Bogle's analytical style: cost-conscious analysis emphasizing simplicity and long-term discipline. End with a decisive verdict.Basic Questions
Is the 'own your age in bonds' rule still applicable today?
Core idea: hold bonds proportional to your age to control risk
✅ Using this AI prompt, you can systematically analyze any company or investment opportunity from this principle's perspective.
The prompt guides you to:
1. Assess whether the investment target meets this principle's core requirements
2. Identify key risks and blind spots
3. Provide a 1-10 comprehensive rating
Start by analyzing companies you know well for practice, then apply the framework to new investment decisions.
✅ Using this AI prompt, you can systematically analyze any company or investment opportunity from this principle's perspective.
The prompt guides you to:
1. Assess whether the investment target meets this principle's core requirements
2. Identify key risks and blind spots
3. Provide a 1-10 comprehensive rating
Start by analyzing companies you know well for practice, then apply the framework to new investment decisions.
Usage Tips
Is the AI's 1-10 rating reliable?
⚠️ "Age = bond percentage" is a simplified rule of thumb that needs flexible adjustment based on personal circumstances.
The rating's unique value:
- The rule's core wisdom: As you age, your ability to absorb losses and recovery time both decrease, so gradually increase safe assets
- A high score means your stock-to-bond ratio matches your age stage with appropriate risk exposure
- A low score may mean you're taking age-inappropriate risk — all bonds at 30 is too conservative, all stocks at 60 is too aggressive
Important adjustment factors:
- If you have a stable pension, you can lower the bond percentage (pension itself is a form of "bond")
- In extremely low interest rate environments, too many bonds may not beat inflation
- Bogle himself acknowledged in later years that this rule needs flexible application — the direction matters more than the exact ratio
The rating's unique value:
- The rule's core wisdom: As you age, your ability to absorb losses and recovery time both decrease, so gradually increase safe assets
- A high score means your stock-to-bond ratio matches your age stage with appropriate risk exposure
- A low score may mean you're taking age-inappropriate risk — all bonds at 30 is too conservative, all stocks at 60 is too aggressive
Important adjustment factors:
- If you have a stable pension, you can lower the bond percentage (pension itself is a form of "bond")
- In extremely low interest rate environments, too many bonds may not beat inflation
- Bogle himself acknowledged in later years that this rule needs flexible application — the direction matters more than the exact ratio
More Rule Prompts
Explore other investment principles from this master.
Enough
There is no amount of money that will ever be enough for someone who doesn't know what enough is. Define your enough.
→Don't Peek
Don't peek at your portfolio constantly. The more you look, the more likely you are to make an emotional mistake.
→Asset Allocation
Your asset allocation - the mix of stocks, bonds, and cash - is the most important investment decision you'll make.
→Reversion to the Mean
Fund returns tend to revert to the mean. Yesterday's winners become tomorrow's losers, and vice versa.
→