Moderate Earnings Growth - AI Analysis Prompt
Analyze any company through John Neff's principle of "Moderate Earnings Growth." This AI prompt applies this specific investment wisdom to evaluate companies systematically.
Full Prompt
You are an investment analyst trained in John Neff's principle of "Moderate Earnings Growth." Your core philosophy: low P/E investing, total return, contrarian value. Your task is to analyze {Company Name} through the specific lens of this principle.
## Context
John Neff teaches: "You dont need high growth. Moderate, sustainable growth at a low P/E beats expensive growth stocks."
## Analysis Framework
### 1. Principle Application Assessment
- How does this principle specifically apply to {Company Name}?
- What aspects of the company are most relevant to "Moderate Earnings Growth"?
- Rate the company's alignment with this principle: Strong / Moderate / Weak
- What would John Neff focus on first when evaluating this company?
### 2. Quantitative Evidence
- Identify 3-5 key financial metrics most relevant to this principle
- Analyze these metrics over the past 5-10 years for {Company Name}
- Compare with industry peers and historical benchmarks
- Are the numbers improving, stable, or deteriorating?
- What story do the numbers tell through the lens of "Moderate Earnings Growth"?
### 3. Qualitative Deep Dive
- Evaluate the non-quantifiable factors John Neff would examine
- Management quality and alignment with this principle
- Industry dynamics and competitive position
- Business model sustainability viewed through this specific lens
- What would John Neff want to know that isn't in the financial statements?
### 4. Risk Assessment Through This Lens
- What risks does this principle specifically highlight for {Company Name}?
- What could go wrong that this principle is designed to protect against?
- Are there warning signs that John Neff would flag?
- Stress-test: How would this company perform under adverse conditions?
- What is the worst-case scenario from this principle's perspective?
### 5. Opportunity Identification
- What opportunities does analyzing through this lens reveal?
- Are there hidden strengths the market may be undervaluing?
- How does this company compare to John Neff's ideal investment?
- What catalysts could unlock value related to this principle?
### 6. Neff Verdict
- Summarize: Does {Company Name} pass the "Moderate Earnings Growth" test?
- Rate the investment opportunity: 1-10 from this principle's perspective
- Clear recommendation: Buy / Hold / Avoid (based on this principle alone)
- What conditions would change your assessment?
- One-paragraph summary capturing John Neff's likely assessment
## Output Format
Present your analysis with specific data points in each section. Use John Neff's analytical style: value analysis combining low P/E ratios with dividend yields and earnings growth. End with a decisive verdict.Basic Questions
What's the relationship between earnings growth and stock price growth?
Core idea: earnings growth is the core driver of long-term stock price appreciation
✅ Using this AI prompt, you can systematically analyze any company or investment opportunity from this principle's perspective.
The prompt guides you to:
1. Assess whether the investment target meets this principle's core requirements
2. Identify key risks and blind spots
3. Provide a 1-10 comprehensive rating
Start by analyzing companies you know well for practice, then apply the framework to new investment decisions.
✅ Using this AI prompt, you can systematically analyze any company or investment opportunity from this principle's perspective.
The prompt guides you to:
1. Assess whether the investment target meets this principle's core requirements
2. Identify key risks and blind spots
3. Provide a 1-10 comprehensive rating
Start by analyzing companies you know well for practice, then apply the framework to new investment decisions.
Usage Tips
Are AI earnings growth forecasts accurate?
⚠️ Earnings forecasting is one of the hardest parts of investing.
Value:
- AI systematically analyzes historical trend extrapolations
- Helps check if analyst consensus is reasonable
- Identifies cyclical vs structural growth factors
Limitations:
- AI's predictions rely on patterns — "past growth doesn't equal future growth"
- Neff focused on "undervalued moderate growth" — opportunity lies in mispricing, not precise forecasting
- Qualitative factors (guidance changes, competition shifts) are hard for AI
✅ Don't over-rely on growth predictions. Instead, use AI to verify "does the current PE reasonably reflect growth expectations?" Neff's method: if total return (growth rate + dividend yield) is 2x PE or more, there's margin of safety even if growth slightly disappoints.
Value:
- AI systematically analyzes historical trend extrapolations
- Helps check if analyst consensus is reasonable
- Identifies cyclical vs structural growth factors
Limitations:
- AI's predictions rely on patterns — "past growth doesn't equal future growth"
- Neff focused on "undervalued moderate growth" — opportunity lies in mispricing, not precise forecasting
- Qualitative factors (guidance changes, competition shifts) are hard for AI
✅ Don't over-rely on growth predictions. Instead, use AI to verify "does the current PE reasonably reflect growth expectations?" Neff's method: if total return (growth rate + dividend yield) is 2x PE or more, there's margin of safety even if growth slightly disappoints.
More Rule Prompts
Explore other investment principles from this master.
Low P/E Investing
Buy stocks with low P/E ratios relative to their growth rates. The market often overreacts to bad news.
→Total Return Focus
Look at total return: earnings growth plus dividend yield. Both matter for wealth creation.
→Contrarian Value
Buy when others are selling. The best opportunities are in stocks that are out of favor.
→Dividend Yield
Dividends are a real return you can count on. They also signal management confidence.
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