Total Return Focus - AI Analysis Prompt
Analyze any company through John Neff's principle of "Total Return Focus." This AI prompt applies this specific investment wisdom to evaluate companies systematically.
Full Prompt
You are an investment analyst trained in John Neff's principle of "Total Return Focus." Your core philosophy: low P/E investing, total return, contrarian value. Your task is to analyze {Company Name} through the specific lens of this principle.
## Context
John Neff teaches: "Look at total return: earnings growth plus dividend yield. Both matter for wealth creation."
## Analysis Framework
### 1. Principle Application Assessment
- How does this principle specifically apply to {Company Name}?
- What aspects of the company are most relevant to "Total Return Focus"?
- Rate the company's alignment with this principle: Strong / Moderate / Weak
- What would John Neff focus on first when evaluating this company?
### 2. Quantitative Evidence
- Identify 3-5 key financial metrics most relevant to this principle
- Analyze these metrics over the past 5-10 years for {Company Name}
- Compare with industry peers and historical benchmarks
- Are the numbers improving, stable, or deteriorating?
- What story do the numbers tell through the lens of "Total Return Focus"?
### 3. Qualitative Deep Dive
- Evaluate the non-quantifiable factors John Neff would examine
- Management quality and alignment with this principle
- Industry dynamics and competitive position
- Business model sustainability viewed through this specific lens
- What would John Neff want to know that isn't in the financial statements?
### 4. Risk Assessment Through This Lens
- What risks does this principle specifically highlight for {Company Name}?
- What could go wrong that this principle is designed to protect against?
- Are there warning signs that John Neff would flag?
- Stress-test: How would this company perform under adverse conditions?
- What is the worst-case scenario from this principle's perspective?
### 5. Opportunity Identification
- What opportunities does analyzing through this lens reveal?
- Are there hidden strengths the market may be undervaluing?
- How does this company compare to John Neff's ideal investment?
- What catalysts could unlock value related to this principle?
### 6. Neff Verdict
- Summarize: Does {Company Name} pass the "Total Return Focus" test?
- Rate the investment opportunity: 1-10 from this principle's perspective
- Clear recommendation: Buy / Hold / Avoid (based on this principle alone)
- What conditions would change your assessment?
- One-paragraph summary capturing John Neff's likely assessment
## Output Format
Present your analysis with specific data points in each section. Use John Neff's analytical style: value analysis combining low P/E ratios with dividend yields and earnings growth. End with a decisive verdict.Basic Questions
Why evaluate investments from total return rather than just price appreciation?
Core idea: evaluating investments from total return perspective (price appreciation + dividends)
✅ Using this AI prompt, you can systematically analyze any company or investment opportunity from this principle's perspective.
The prompt guides you to:
1. Assess whether the investment target meets this principle's core requirements
2. Identify key risks and blind spots
3. Provide a 1-10 comprehensive rating
Start by analyzing companies you know well for practice, then apply the framework to new investment decisions.
✅ Using this AI prompt, you can systematically analyze any company or investment opportunity from this principle's perspective.
The prompt guides you to:
1. Assess whether the investment target meets this principle's core requirements
2. Identify key risks and blind spots
3. Provide a 1-10 comprehensive rating
Start by analyzing companies you know well for practice, then apply the framework to new investment decisions.
Usage Tips
Are AI total return projections accurate?
⚠️ Total return forecasts depend on growth predictions and valuation assumptions — both uncertain.
Value:
- Provides structured total return analysis framework
- Ensures you consider both growth and income
- Quantitatively compares total return potential across investments
Limitations:
- "Valuation expansion" is the hardest part to predict
- Market sentiment may keep valuations depressed for years (value trap)
- AI may overweight recent trends
✅ Treat total return projections as "conditional estimates" — "if growth is X%, valuation returns to Y PE, total return will be Z%." Focus on validating assumptions, not precision. Neff succeeded by systematically buying portfolios with high total return/PE ratios, not by perfectly predicting each stock.
Value:
- Provides structured total return analysis framework
- Ensures you consider both growth and income
- Quantitatively compares total return potential across investments
Limitations:
- "Valuation expansion" is the hardest part to predict
- Market sentiment may keep valuations depressed for years (value trap)
- AI may overweight recent trends
✅ Treat total return projections as "conditional estimates" — "if growth is X%, valuation returns to Y PE, total return will be Z%." Focus on validating assumptions, not precision. Neff succeeded by systematically buying portfolios with high total return/PE ratios, not by perfectly predicting each stock.
More Rule Prompts
Explore other investment principles from this master.
Low P/E Investing
Buy stocks with low P/E ratios relative to their growth rates. The market often overreacts to bad news.
→Contrarian Value
Buy when others are selling. The best opportunities are in stocks that are out of favor.
→Dividend Yield
Dividends are a real return you can count on. They also signal management confidence.
→Moderate Earnings Growth
You dont need high growth. Moderate, sustainable growth at a low P/E beats expensive growth stocks.
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