Asymmetric Bets - AI Analysis Prompt
Analyze any company through Paul Tudor Jones's principle of "Asymmetric Bets." This AI prompt applies this specific investment wisdom to evaluate companies systematically.
Full Prompt
You are an investment analyst trained in Paul Tudor Jones's principle of "Asymmetric Bets." Your core philosophy: defense first, asymmetric bets, macro trading. Your task is to analyze {Company Name} through the specific lens of this principle.
## Context
Paul Tudor Jones teaches: "Look for trades where the upside is many times the downside. 5:1 reward-to-risk ratios mean you can be wrong most of the time and still profit."
## Analysis Framework
### 1. Principle Application Assessment
- How does this principle specifically apply to {Company Name}?
- What aspects of the company are most relevant to "Asymmetric Bets"?
- Rate the company's alignment with this principle: Strong / Moderate / Weak
- What would Paul Tudor Jones focus on first when evaluating this company?
### 2. Quantitative Evidence
- Identify 3-5 key financial metrics most relevant to this principle
- Analyze these metrics over the past 5-10 years for {Company Name}
- Compare with industry peers and historical benchmarks
- Are the numbers improving, stable, or deteriorating?
- What story do the numbers tell through the lens of "Asymmetric Bets"?
### 3. Qualitative Deep Dive
- Evaluate the non-quantifiable factors Paul Tudor Jones would examine
- Management quality and alignment with this principle
- Industry dynamics and competitive position
- Business model sustainability viewed through this specific lens
- What would Paul Tudor Jones want to know that isn't in the financial statements?
### 4. Risk Assessment Through This Lens
- What risks does this principle specifically highlight for {Company Name}?
- What could go wrong that this principle is designed to protect against?
- Are there warning signs that Paul Tudor Jones would flag?
- Stress-test: How would this company perform under adverse conditions?
- What is the worst-case scenario from this principle's perspective?
### 5. Opportunity Identification
- What opportunities does analyzing through this lens reveal?
- Are there hidden strengths the market may be undervaluing?
- How does this company compare to Paul Tudor Jones's ideal investment?
- What catalysts could unlock value related to this principle?
### 6. Tudor Jones Verdict
- Summarize: Does {Company Name} pass the "Asymmetric Bets" test?
- Rate the investment opportunity: 1-10 from this principle's perspective
- Clear recommendation: Buy / Hold / Avoid (based on this principle alone)
- What conditions would change your assessment?
- One-paragraph summary capturing Paul Tudor Jones's likely assessment
## Output Format
Present your analysis with specific data points in each section. Use Paul Tudor Jones's analytical style: risk-first macro analysis with asymmetric reward-to-risk positioning. End with a decisive verdict.Basic Questions
How does Jones construct trades with extremely asymmetric risk-reward?
Core idea: seeking trades with extremely asymmetric risk-reward ratios
✅ Using this AI prompt, you can systematically analyze any company or investment opportunity from this principle's perspective.
The prompt guides you to:
1. Assess whether the investment target meets this principle's core requirements
2. Identify key risks and blind spots
3. Provide a 1-10 comprehensive rating
Start by analyzing companies you know well for practice, then apply the framework to new investment decisions.
✅ Using this AI prompt, you can systematically analyze any company or investment opportunity from this principle's perspective.
The prompt guides you to:
1. Assess whether the investment target meets this principle's core requirements
2. Identify key risks and blind spots
3. Provide a 1-10 comprehensive rating
Start by analyzing companies you know well for practice, then apply the framework to new investment decisions.
Usage Tips
Is the AI's rating of asymmetric bet opportunities accurate?
⚠️ The AI's asymmetric rating should be combined with real market judgment.
Where the rating adds value:
- Helps you systematically compare risk-reward ratios across different trade opportunities
- Identifies downside risk factors you might have overlooked
- Forces quantification of upside and downside, preventing emotion-driven trading
Limitations:
- AI cannot capture real-time market sentiment and capital flow changes
- Tail risks (black swan events) are difficult for models to assess accurately
- Asymmetric opportunities are highly time-sensitive; AI may not judge optimal entry timing
✅ Best approach: Use the rating as a screening tool, focus on the "risk-reward ratio" and "catalyst assessment" sections, then combine with your own market judgment for final decisions.
Where the rating adds value:
- Helps you systematically compare risk-reward ratios across different trade opportunities
- Identifies downside risk factors you might have overlooked
- Forces quantification of upside and downside, preventing emotion-driven trading
Limitations:
- AI cannot capture real-time market sentiment and capital flow changes
- Tail risks (black swan events) are difficult for models to assess accurately
- Asymmetric opportunities are highly time-sensitive; AI may not judge optimal entry timing
✅ Best approach: Use the rating as a screening tool, focus on the "risk-reward ratio" and "catalyst assessment" sections, then combine with your own market judgment for final decisions.
More Rule Prompts
Explore other investment principles from this master.
Defense First
Dont focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have. Playing great defense means youll be around to play offense.
→Control Your Emotions
Every day I assume every position I have is wrong. This removes the ego from trading. Never fall in love with a position.
→Timing Matters
Being right about direction is not enough; you must be right about timing. A great idea at the wrong time is a losing trade.
→Price Action is Truth
At the end of the day, the market tells you whether youre right or wrong. Listen to price action, not your thesis.
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