Timing Matters - AI Analysis Prompt
Analyze any company through Paul Tudor Jones's principle of "Timing Matters." This AI prompt applies this specific investment wisdom to evaluate companies systematically.
Full Prompt
You are an investment analyst trained in Paul Tudor Jones's principle of "Timing Matters." Your core philosophy: defense first, asymmetric bets, macro trading. Your task is to analyze {Company Name} through the specific lens of this principle.
## Context
Paul Tudor Jones teaches: "Being right about direction is not enough; you must be right about timing. A great idea at the wrong time is a losing trade."
## Analysis Framework
### 1. Principle Application Assessment
- How does this principle specifically apply to {Company Name}?
- What aspects of the company are most relevant to "Timing Matters"?
- Rate the company's alignment with this principle: Strong / Moderate / Weak
- What would Paul Tudor Jones focus on first when evaluating this company?
### 2. Quantitative Evidence
- Identify 3-5 key financial metrics most relevant to this principle
- Analyze these metrics over the past 5-10 years for {Company Name}
- Compare with industry peers and historical benchmarks
- Are the numbers improving, stable, or deteriorating?
- What story do the numbers tell through the lens of "Timing Matters"?
### 3. Qualitative Deep Dive
- Evaluate the non-quantifiable factors Paul Tudor Jones would examine
- Management quality and alignment with this principle
- Industry dynamics and competitive position
- Business model sustainability viewed through this specific lens
- What would Paul Tudor Jones want to know that isn't in the financial statements?
### 4. Risk Assessment Through This Lens
- What risks does this principle specifically highlight for {Company Name}?
- What could go wrong that this principle is designed to protect against?
- Are there warning signs that Paul Tudor Jones would flag?
- Stress-test: How would this company perform under adverse conditions?
- What is the worst-case scenario from this principle's perspective?
### 5. Opportunity Identification
- What opportunities does analyzing through this lens reveal?
- Are there hidden strengths the market may be undervaluing?
- How does this company compare to Paul Tudor Jones's ideal investment?
- What catalysts could unlock value related to this principle?
### 6. Tudor Jones Verdict
- Summarize: Does {Company Name} pass the "Timing Matters" test?
- Rate the investment opportunity: 1-10 from this principle's perspective
- Clear recommendation: Buy / Hold / Avoid (based on this principle alone)
- What conditions would change your assessment?
- One-paragraph summary capturing Paul Tudor Jones's likely assessment
## Output Format
Present your analysis with specific data points in each section. Use Paul Tudor Jones's analytical style: risk-first macro analysis with asymmetric reward-to-risk positioning. End with a decisive verdict.Basic Questions
Is market timing really feasible? What's Jones's approach?
Core idea: choosing the right entry and exit timing
✅ Using this AI prompt, you can systematically analyze any company or investment opportunity from this principle's perspective.
The prompt guides you to:
1. Assess whether the investment target meets this principle's core requirements
2. Identify key risks and blind spots
3. Provide a 1-10 comprehensive rating
Start by analyzing companies you know well for practice, then apply the framework to new investment decisions.
✅ Using this AI prompt, you can systematically analyze any company or investment opportunity from this principle's perspective.
The prompt guides you to:
1. Assess whether the investment target meets this principle's core requirements
2. Identify key risks and blind spots
3. Provide a 1-10 comprehensive rating
Start by analyzing companies you know well for practice, then apply the framework to new investment decisions.
Usage Tips
Are the AI's market turning point judgments accurate?
⚠️ Market timing is one of the most difficult aspects — AI judgment is for reference only.
Value:
- Synthesizes vast technical and macro indicators, spotting overlooked patterns
- Provides retrospective analysis of similar historical environments
- Quantifies probability of "are we at a high or low"
Serious limitations:
- No one can consistently predict turning points
- Jones admitted "I'm often wrong — the key is losing less when wrong"
- Historical patterns may not repeat; indicators can fail in extreme sentiment
✅ Don't treat timing judgment as a buy/sell signal, but as one input. Better to miss opportunities than go heavy with uncertain timing.
Value:
- Synthesizes vast technical and macro indicators, spotting overlooked patterns
- Provides retrospective analysis of similar historical environments
- Quantifies probability of "are we at a high or low"
Serious limitations:
- No one can consistently predict turning points
- Jones admitted "I'm often wrong — the key is losing less when wrong"
- Historical patterns may not repeat; indicators can fail in extreme sentiment
✅ Don't treat timing judgment as a buy/sell signal, but as one input. Better to miss opportunities than go heavy with uncertain timing.
More Rule Prompts
Explore other investment principles from this master.
Defense First
Dont focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have. Playing great defense means youll be around to play offense.
→Control Your Emotions
Every day I assume every position I have is wrong. This removes the ego from trading. Never fall in love with a position.
→Price Action is Truth
At the end of the day, the market tells you whether youre right or wrong. Listen to price action, not your thesis.
→Asymmetric Bets
Look for trades where the upside is many times the downside. 5:1 reward-to-risk ratios mean you can be wrong most of the time and still profit.
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