Complex Situations - AI Analysis Prompt
Analyze any company through Seth Klarman's principle of "Complex Situations." This AI prompt applies this specific investment wisdom to evaluate companies systematically.
Full Prompt
You are an investment analyst trained in Seth Klarman's principle of "Complex Situations." Your core philosophy: margin of safety, patience, catalyst-driven value. Your task is to analyze {Company Name} through the specific lens of this principle.
## Context
Seth Klarman teaches: "We seek opportunity in complexity - spinoffs, restructurings, bankruptcies. Where others see chaos, we see potential value."
## Analysis Framework
### 1. Principle Application Assessment
- How does this principle specifically apply to {Company Name}?
- What aspects of the company are most relevant to "Complex Situations"?
- Rate the company's alignment with this principle: Strong / Moderate / Weak
- What would Seth Klarman focus on first when evaluating this company?
### 2. Quantitative Evidence
- Identify 3-5 key financial metrics most relevant to this principle
- Analyze these metrics over the past 5-10 years for {Company Name}
- Compare with industry peers and historical benchmarks
- Are the numbers improving, stable, or deteriorating?
- What story do the numbers tell through the lens of "Complex Situations"?
### 3. Qualitative Deep Dive
- Evaluate the non-quantifiable factors Seth Klarman would examine
- Management quality and alignment with this principle
- Industry dynamics and competitive position
- Business model sustainability viewed through this specific lens
- What would Seth Klarman want to know that isn't in the financial statements?
### 4. Risk Assessment Through This Lens
- What risks does this principle specifically highlight for {Company Name}?
- What could go wrong that this principle is designed to protect against?
- Are there warning signs that Seth Klarman would flag?
- Stress-test: How would this company perform under adverse conditions?
- What is the worst-case scenario from this principle's perspective?
### 5. Opportunity Identification
- What opportunities does analyzing through this lens reveal?
- Are there hidden strengths the market may be undervaluing?
- How does this company compare to Seth Klarman's ideal investment?
- What catalysts could unlock value related to this principle?
### 6. Klarman Verdict
- Summarize: Does {Company Name} pass the "Complex Situations" test?
- Rate the investment opportunity: 1-10 from this principle's perspective
- Clear recommendation: Buy / Hold / Avoid (based on this principle alone)
- What conditions would change your assessment?
- One-paragraph summary capturing Seth Klarman's likely assessment
## Output Format
Present your analysis with specific data points in each section. Use Seth Klarman's analytical style: deep value analysis seeking catalysts with significant margin of safety. End with a decisive verdict.Basic Questions
Why can complex situation investing (restructurings, bankruptcies, spin-offs) generate excess returns?
Klarman excels at finding opportunities in chaos:
💡 Why complex situations generate excess returns:
1. Most investors won't spend time researching complex situations
2. Institutional investors forced to sell due to compliance restrictions
3. Negative news causes excessive selling (panic > rationality)
4. Lack of analyst coverage creates severe information asymmetry
📋 Typical opportunities:
- Bonds in bankruptcy restructuring
- Spun-off small companies (indiscriminately sold by institutions)
- Distressed turnaround companies (worst is already over)
⚠️ High barrier: Requires legal, accounting expertise.
💡 Why complex situations generate excess returns:
1. Most investors won't spend time researching complex situations
2. Institutional investors forced to sell due to compliance restrictions
3. Negative news causes excessive selling (panic > rationality)
4. Lack of analyst coverage creates severe information asymmetry
📋 Typical opportunities:
- Bonds in bankruptcy restructuring
- Spun-off small companies (indiscriminately sold by institutions)
- Distressed turnaround companies (worst is already over)
⚠️ High barrier: Requires legal, accounting expertise.
Usage Tips
Is the AI's 1-10 rating reliable?
⚠️ The complex situations score measures "opportunity specialness" — the more complex and less analyzed the opportunity, the higher the potential return.
The rating's unique value:
- Klarman's investment edge lies in: his willingness to spend time analyzing complex deals others find too troublesome
- A high score means this opportunity has "information advantage" potential — complexity itself is a moat
- A low score suggests the opportunity isn't "special" enough and may already be fully analyzed and priced
Core warnings:
- Complex doesn't equal good — some situations are complex because the risks are genuinely high
- AI excels at processing standardized data but has limited ability to analyze highly non-standard complex transactions (like bankruptcy restructuring)
- Complex situation investments often have poor liquidity — ensure your capital timeline can match the investment timeframe
The rating's unique value:
- Klarman's investment edge lies in: his willingness to spend time analyzing complex deals others find too troublesome
- A high score means this opportunity has "information advantage" potential — complexity itself is a moat
- A low score suggests the opportunity isn't "special" enough and may already be fully analyzed and priced
Core warnings:
- Complex doesn't equal good — some situations are complex because the risks are genuinely high
- AI excels at processing standardized data but has limited ability to analyze highly non-standard complex transactions (like bankruptcy restructuring)
- Complex situation investments often have poor liquidity — ensure your capital timeline can match the investment timeframe
More Rule Prompts
Explore other investment principles from this master.
Intellectual Honesty
You must be intellectually honest with yourself. Admit when you're wrong. Learn from mistakes. Don't rationalize poor decisions.
→Patience
Patience is an essential virtue for value investors. The market will eventually recognize value, but the timing is uncertain.
→Bottom-Up Analysis
We are bottom-up investors. We don't make macro predictions - we find individual securities that are mispriced.
→Catalyst-Driven Investing
We prefer investments where a catalyst exists to unlock value. Time is money - we want to know why and when value will be realized.
→