Intellectual Honesty - AI Analysis Prompt
Analyze any company through Seth Klarman's principle of "Intellectual Honesty." This AI prompt applies this specific investment wisdom to evaluate companies systematically.
Full Prompt
You are an investment analyst trained in Seth Klarman's principle of "Intellectual Honesty." Your core philosophy: margin of safety, patience, catalyst-driven value. Your task is to analyze {Company Name} through the specific lens of this principle.
## Context
Seth Klarman teaches: "You must be intellectually honest with yourself. Admit when you're wrong. Learn from mistakes. Don't rationalize poor decisions."
## Analysis Framework
### 1. Principle Application Assessment
- How does this principle specifically apply to {Company Name}?
- What aspects of the company are most relevant to "Intellectual Honesty"?
- Rate the company's alignment with this principle: Strong / Moderate / Weak
- What would Seth Klarman focus on first when evaluating this company?
### 2. Quantitative Evidence
- Identify 3-5 key financial metrics most relevant to this principle
- Analyze these metrics over the past 5-10 years for {Company Name}
- Compare with industry peers and historical benchmarks
- Are the numbers improving, stable, or deteriorating?
- What story do the numbers tell through the lens of "Intellectual Honesty"?
### 3. Qualitative Deep Dive
- Evaluate the non-quantifiable factors Seth Klarman would examine
- Management quality and alignment with this principle
- Industry dynamics and competitive position
- Business model sustainability viewed through this specific lens
- What would Seth Klarman want to know that isn't in the financial statements?
### 4. Risk Assessment Through This Lens
- What risks does this principle specifically highlight for {Company Name}?
- What could go wrong that this principle is designed to protect against?
- Are there warning signs that Seth Klarman would flag?
- Stress-test: How would this company perform under adverse conditions?
- What is the worst-case scenario from this principle's perspective?
### 5. Opportunity Identification
- What opportunities does analyzing through this lens reveal?
- Are there hidden strengths the market may be undervaluing?
- How does this company compare to Seth Klarman's ideal investment?
- What catalysts could unlock value related to this principle?
### 6. Klarman Verdict
- Summarize: Does {Company Name} pass the "Intellectual Honesty" test?
- Rate the investment opportunity: 1-10 from this principle's perspective
- Clear recommendation: Buy / Hold / Avoid (based on this principle alone)
- What conditions would change your assessment?
- One-paragraph summary capturing Seth Klarman's likely assessment
## Output Format
Present your analysis with specific data points in each section. Use Seth Klarman's analytical style: deep value analysis seeking catalysts with significant margin of safety. End with a decisive verdict.Basic Questions
What does Klarman's 'intellectual honesty' look like in practice?
Intellectual honesty is the bedrock of Klarman's investing philosophy:
🪞 Practicing intellectual honesty:
1. Acknowledge uncertainty: Never say 'guaranteed profit,' say 'I believe probability is higher'
2. Distinguish facts from opinions: What you know is fact; what you judge is opinion
3. Record decision reasons: Write down why you buy, for post-verification
4. Welcome contrary evidence: Actively seek information proving you wrong
❌ Signs of dishonesty:
- Only reading analysis supporting your view
- Making excuses after losses instead of finding causes
- Boasting about successes while hiding failures
🪞 Practicing intellectual honesty:
1. Acknowledge uncertainty: Never say 'guaranteed profit,' say 'I believe probability is higher'
2. Distinguish facts from opinions: What you know is fact; what you judge is opinion
3. Record decision reasons: Write down why you buy, for post-verification
4. Welcome contrary evidence: Actively seek information proving you wrong
❌ Signs of dishonesty:
- Only reading analysis supporting your view
- Making excuses after losses instead of finding causes
- Boasting about successes while hiding failures
Usage Tips
Is the AI's 1-10 rating reliable?
⚠️ The intellectual honesty score is a "mirror" — it reflects not whether the company is good, but whether your analytical process is honest.
The rating's unique perspective:
- Klarman believes: The biggest enemy in investing isn't the market but your own biases and self-deception
- A high score means your analysis fully considers the possibility that you could be wrong — this is real risk management
- A low score reveals you may be unconsciously seeking only evidence that supports your conclusion
The most critical reminder:
- "Confirmation bias" is the most common and deadly bias among investors — the more certain you are, the more dangerous
- AI itself can exhibit "confirmation bias" — it may tend to provide analysis you want to hear
- The ultimate test of intellectual honesty: Are you truly willing to accept that your analysis could be completely wrong?
The rating's unique perspective:
- Klarman believes: The biggest enemy in investing isn't the market but your own biases and self-deception
- A high score means your analysis fully considers the possibility that you could be wrong — this is real risk management
- A low score reveals you may be unconsciously seeking only evidence that supports your conclusion
The most critical reminder:
- "Confirmation bias" is the most common and deadly bias among investors — the more certain you are, the more dangerous
- AI itself can exhibit "confirmation bias" — it may tend to provide analysis you want to hear
- The ultimate test of intellectual honesty: Are you truly willing to accept that your analysis could be completely wrong?
More Rule Prompts
Explore other investment principles from this master.
Patience
Patience is an essential virtue for value investors. The market will eventually recognize value, but the timing is uncertain.
→Bottom-Up Analysis
We are bottom-up investors. We don't make macro predictions - we find individual securities that are mispriced.
→Complex Situations
We seek opportunity in complexity - spinoffs, restructurings, bankruptcies. Where others see chaos, we see potential value.
→Catalyst-Driven Investing
We prefer investments where a catalyst exists to unlock value. Time is money - we want to know why and when value will be realized.
→