Bond Allocation Rule - Prompt de Análisis IA
Use this John Bogle rule prompt to apply “Regla de Asignación de Bonos” to a specific company. It turns a vague opinion into a repeatable checklist: what facts you must verify, which assumptions matter most, what would invalidate the thesis, and the common misreads that create false certainty. Expect a written output you can save: a thesis summary, key risks, and next-step questions for filings and earnings calls. If a claim matters, require primary-source citations before you act. Educational only — not investment advice.
Prompt completo
Eres un analista de inversiones entrenado en el principio de John Bogle: "Bond Allocation Rule". Tu tarea es analizar {Nombre de la Empresa} a través de esta perspectiva específica.
## Contexto
John Bogle enseña: "A rough rule: hold your age in bonds. A 30-year-old might hold 30% bonds, a 60-year-old 60% bonds."
## Marco de Análisis
### 1. Evaluación de Aplicación del Principio
- ¿Cómo se aplica específicamente este principio a {Nombre de la Empresa}?
- ¿Qué aspectos de la empresa son más relevantes para "Bond Allocation Rule"?
- Califica la alineación: Fuerte / Moderada / Débil
- ¿En qué se enfocaría John Bogle primero?
### 2. Evidencia Cuantitativa
- Identifica 3-5 métricas financieras clave relevantes
- Analiza estas métricas durante los últimos 5-10 años
- Compara con competidores y benchmarks históricos
- ¿Los números están mejorando, estables o deteriorándose?
### 3. Análisis Cualitativo
- Evalúa factores no cuantificables que John Bogle examinaría
- Calidad de la gestión y alineación con este principio
- Dinámica de la industria y posición competitiva
- Sostenibilidad del modelo de negocio desde esta perspectiva
### 4. Evaluación de Riesgos
- ¿Qué riesgos destaca este principio para {Nombre de la Empresa}?
- ¿Qué señales de advertencia identificaría John Bogle?
- Prueba de estrés: ¿Cómo se desempeñaría bajo condiciones adversas?
- ¿Cuál es el peor escenario desde esta perspectiva?
### 5. Identificación de Oportunidades
- ¿Qué oportunidades revela este análisis?
- ¿Hay fortalezas ocultas que el mercado podría estar subvalorando?
- ¿Qué catalizadores podrían liberar valor?
### 6. Bogle Verdict
- ¿{Nombre de la Empresa} pasa la prueba de "Bond Allocation Rule"?
- Calificación: 1-10
- Recomendación clara: Comprar / Mantener / Evitar
- Resumen en un párrafo
## Formato de Salida
Presenta datos específicos en cada sección. Termina con un veredicto decisivo.Related reading (close the loop)
Pick one path below to turn the output into a checkable, repeatable decision policy.
- Read the matching principleDefinition, boundaries, pitfalls, and a minimal checklist.
- Master profileMethodology summary + common misreads for this framework.
- Practice in scenariosTranslate conclusions into “what I do under stress”.
- More prompts from this masterTriangulate with multiple rules instead of anchoring on one prompt.
Educational only. Verify facts with primary sources and apply your own constraints.
Este contenido solo está disponible en chino e inglés por el momento.
Basic Questions
Is the 'own your age in bonds' rule still applicable today?
Core idea: hold bonds proportional to your age to control risk
✅ Using this AI prompt, you can systematically analyze any company or investment opportunity from this principle's perspective.
The prompt guides you to:
1. Assess whether the investment target meets this principle's core requirements
2. Identify key risks and blind spots
3. Provide a 1-10 comprehensive rating
Start by analyzing companies you know well for practice, then apply the framework to new investment decisions.
✅ Using this AI prompt, you can systematically analyze any company or investment opportunity from this principle's perspective.
The prompt guides you to:
1. Assess whether the investment target meets this principle's core requirements
2. Identify key risks and blind spots
3. Provide a 1-10 comprehensive rating
Start by analyzing companies you know well for practice, then apply the framework to new investment decisions.
Usage Tips
Is the AI's 1-10 rating reliable?
⚠️ "Age = bond percentage" is a simplified rule of thumb that needs flexible adjustment based on personal circumstances.
The rating's unique value:
- The rule's core wisdom: As you age, your ability to absorb losses and recovery time both decrease, so gradually increase safe assets
- A high score means your stock-to-bond ratio matches your age stage with appropriate risk exposure
- A low score may mean you're taking age-inappropriate risk — all bonds at 30 is too conservative, all stocks at 60 is too aggressive
Important adjustment factors:
- If you have a stable pension, you can lower the bond percentage (pension itself is a form of "bond")
- In extremely low interest rate environments, too many bonds may not beat inflation
- Bogle himself acknowledged in later years that this rule needs flexible application — the direction matters more than the exact ratio
The rating's unique value:
- The rule's core wisdom: As you age, your ability to absorb losses and recovery time both decrease, so gradually increase safe assets
- A high score means your stock-to-bond ratio matches your age stage with appropriate risk exposure
- A low score may mean you're taking age-inappropriate risk — all bonds at 30 is too conservative, all stocks at 60 is too aggressive
Important adjustment factors:
- If you have a stable pension, you can lower the bond percentage (pension itself is a form of "bond")
- In extremely low interest rate environments, too many bonds may not beat inflation
- Bogle himself acknowledged in later years that this rule needs flexible application — the direction matters more than the exact ratio
Getting started
Does this prompt give investment advice or buy/sell calls?
No. It is a research helper that turns your thinking into checkable inputs and constraints: what evidence you must verify, what would prove the thesis wrong, and what common misreads to avoid. Treat the output as a draft, not a signal. Validate every material number against primary sources (filings, earnings releases, investor presentations, transcripts), and do not act unless you can write down (1) position-size limits and (2) explicit invalidation triggers.
What inputs should I provide for a reliable result?
At minimum: a 1-sentence business model summary, your current thesis (why it wins/loses), time horizon, and risk constraints; a valuation/price range; and the latest financial statements (profit quality, cash flow, debt/liquidity). Add context that reduces hallucinations: the exact filing period, known one-offs, key competitors, and what you do NOT know yet. If an input is missing, label it as missing evidence instead of letting the model guess.
Validation and boundaries
How do I validate the output?
Validate falsifiable claims one by one. Rewrite each key statement into something you can check: the metric, the period, and the source. Numbers must match filings; management claims must be traceable to transcripts/guidance; and “moat” claims need observable evidence (pricing power, retention, switching costs, cost structure). Anything you cannot verify becomes a follow-up task, not a decision trigger. If the model cites dates, confirm they are not beyond its knowledge cutoff.
When should I NOT act on the output?
If you cannot write down invalidation triggers, a position-size cap, or primary-source evidence for the key claims behind “Regla de Asignación de Bonos”, do not act. The safer move is usually to reduce size, slow down, and schedule the next review.
Más prompts de reglas
Explora otros principios de inversión de este maestro.
Suficiente
No hay cantidad de dinero que sea suficiente para alguien que no sabe qué es suficiente. Define tu suficiente.
→No Mires Constantemente
No mires tu portafolio constantemente. Cuanto más miras, más probable es que cometas un error emocional.
→Asignación de Activos
Tu asignación de activos - la mezcla de acciones, bonos y efectivo - es la decisión de inversión más importante que tomarás.
→Reversión a la Media
Los retornos de los fondos tienden a revertir a la media. Los ganadores de ayer se convierten en los perdedores de mañana, y viceversa.
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