Prompt d'Analyse d'Investissement de Philip Fisher
Un cadre complet d'investissement en actions de croissance basé sur la philosophie de Philip Fisher. Couvre la qualité des produits, l'évaluation de la direction, l'innovation R&D et le potentiel de croissance.
Contenu Complet du Prompt
Règles d'Investissement Classiques
Plongez dans les principes d'investissement intemporels qui ont guidé des générations d'investisseurs prospères.
Trois Raisons de Vendre
Vendez seulement quand: 1) Vous avez fait une erreur dans l'analyse originale, 2) L'entreprise ne répond plus aux quinze points, ou 3) Une meilleure opportunité existe clairement.
→Quelques Investissements Exceptionnels
Je ne veux pas beaucoup de bons investissements; j'en veux quelques-uns exceptionnels. La concentration sur vos meilleures idées est essentielle.
→Conserver Pour Toujours
Si le travail a été correctement fait lors de l'achat d'une action, le moment de la vendre n'arrive presque jamais.
→Intégrité de la Direction
La direction a-t-elle une intégrité irréprochable? Une direction qui trompe les actionnaires finira par tromper les investisseurs.
→Marges Bénéficiaires Significatives
L'entreprise a-t-elle une marge bénéficiaire significative? La croissance sans profit n'a pas de sens.
→Le texte du prompt à copier est disponible en chinois et en anglais. Le contenu de la page a été traduit en français.
Common Misconceptions
What are common misunderstandings about Fisher?
❌ **Myth 1**: "Buying any growth stock makes money"
- **Reality**: Fisher only bought **super growth stocks** (annual growth >20% sustained 5+ years), ordinary growth stocks don't meet standards.
❌ **Myth 2**: "Growth stocks don't care about valuation"
- **Reality**: Fisher focused on "**reasonable prices**," wouldn't buy during extreme bubbles (e.g., 2000 dot-com bubble).
❌ **Myth 3**: "Scuttlebutt is just gossip gathering"
- **Reality**: Scuttlebutt is **systematic research**, requires interviewing 10+ people, cross-verifying information authenticity.
❌ **Myth 4**: "Never sell"
- **Reality**: When company **fundamentals deteriorate**, **industry declines**, **find better targets**, Fisher would sell.
- **Reality**: Fisher only bought **super growth stocks** (annual growth >20% sustained 5+ years), ordinary growth stocks don't meet standards.
❌ **Myth 2**: "Growth stocks don't care about valuation"
- **Reality**: Fisher focused on "**reasonable prices**," wouldn't buy during extreme bubbles (e.g., 2000 dot-com bubble).
❌ **Myth 3**: "Scuttlebutt is just gossip gathering"
- **Reality**: Scuttlebutt is **systematic research**, requires interviewing 10+ people, cross-verifying information authenticity.
❌ **Myth 4**: "Never sell"
- **Reality**: When company **fundamentals deteriorate**, **industry declines**, **find better targets**, Fisher would sell.
Usage Scenarios
When should you use Fisher's method?
✅ **Best For**:
1. **Growth Markets** (tech innovation cycles, emerging industry booms)
2. **Long Bull Markets** (strong economic growth, continuous earnings expansion)
3. **Deep Research Capability** (can understand tech trends, industry changes)
4. **Ample Funds** (can lock up long-term, don't need money for 5-10 years)
❌ **Not For**:
1. **Bear Markets/Crises** (growth stocks often fall more)
2. **Short-Term Trading** (Fisher emphasizes long-term holding)
3. **Lack Research Ability** (cannot judge company growth potential)
4. **Need Cash Flow** (growth stocks typically don't pay dividends)
1. **Growth Markets** (tech innovation cycles, emerging industry booms)
2. **Long Bull Markets** (strong economic growth, continuous earnings expansion)
3. **Deep Research Capability** (can understand tech trends, industry changes)
4. **Ample Funds** (can lock up long-term, don't need money for 5-10 years)
❌ **Not For**:
1. **Bear Markets/Crises** (growth stocks often fall more)
2. **Short-Term Trading** (Fisher emphasizes long-term holding)
3. **Lack Research Ability** (cannot judge company growth potential)
4. **Need Cash Flow** (growth stocks typically don't pay dividends)
Comparison & Selection
How does Fisher differ from Buffett?
**Core Differences**:
1. **Valuation Focus**: Fisher buys "**growth**" (future earnings growth), Buffett buys "**value**" (current low valuation)
2. **Holding Period**: Fisher "**almost never sells**" (unless company deteriorates), Buffett also holds long-term but more flexible
3. **Investment Targets**: Fisher prefers **tech/innovation** (Motorola, Texas Instruments), Buffett early preferred **traditional industries** (Coca-Cola, Gillette)
4. **Portfolio Concentration**: Fisher **extremely concentrated** (3-10 companies), Buffett relatively diversified (50+ companies)
**Similarities**:
- Both emphasize **long-term holding**, **deep research**, **management quality**
- Buffett admits being deeply influenced by Fisher, combining Graham (value) and Fisher (growth)
1. **Valuation Focus**: Fisher buys "**growth**" (future earnings growth), Buffett buys "**value**" (current low valuation)
2. **Holding Period**: Fisher "**almost never sells**" (unless company deteriorates), Buffett also holds long-term but more flexible
3. **Investment Targets**: Fisher prefers **tech/innovation** (Motorola, Texas Instruments), Buffett early preferred **traditional industries** (Coca-Cola, Gillette)
4. **Portfolio Concentration**: Fisher **extremely concentrated** (3-10 companies), Buffett relatively diversified (50+ companies)
**Similarities**:
- Both emphasize **long-term holding**, **deep research**, **management quality**
- Buffett admits being deeply influenced by Fisher, combining Graham (value) and Fisher (growth)
Practical Application
Can ordinary investors apply Fisher's method?
✅ **Yes, but needs simplification**:
**Original Scuttlebutt** (for institutions): Requires face-to-face interviews with customers, suppliers, etc., difficult for ordinary people.
**Simplified Version** (for ordinary people):
1. **Online research**: Check Amazon/JD reviews (customer feedback), Glassdoor employee reviews (company culture), industry forum discussions (expert views)
2. **Earnings calls**: Listen to quarterly earnings call recordings from CEO/CFO (free on IR websites)
3. **Use products**: Personally experience company products (e.g., iPhone, Tesla)
4. **Follow news**: Track industry news, competitor dynamics
**Suggestion**: Ordinary investors can buy growth ETFs (e.g., QQQ NASDAQ-100 ETF), or research 1-2 leading companies in familiar industries for deep holding.
**Original Scuttlebutt** (for institutions): Requires face-to-face interviews with customers, suppliers, etc., difficult for ordinary people.
**Simplified Version** (for ordinary people):
1. **Online research**: Check Amazon/JD reviews (customer feedback), Glassdoor employee reviews (company culture), industry forum discussions (expert views)
2. **Earnings calls**: Listen to quarterly earnings call recordings from CEO/CFO (free on IR websites)
3. **Use products**: Personally experience company products (e.g., iPhone, Tesla)
4. **Follow news**: Track industry news, competitor dynamics
**Suggestion**: Ordinary investors can buy growth ETFs (e.g., QQQ NASDAQ-100 ETF), or research 1-2 leading companies in familiar industries for deep holding.
Theory Deep Dive
What is the "Scuttlebutt Method"?
This is Fisher's original corporate research method, with the core being "**not just listen to what the company says, but also hear how others evaluate the company**." Specific practices:
1. **Customer interviews**: Ask about product satisfaction, repurchase rate, whether they recommend to others
2. **Supplier interviews**: Understand if company pays on time, if cooperation is stable
3. **Competitor interviews**: Learn about industry position, technological advantages
4. **Former employee interviews**: Understand company culture, management capability
5. **Industry expert interviews**: Learn about industry trends, company prospects
Fisher believed that through multi-party verification, one can discover true situations that financial statements cannot reflect, such as management integrity, employee morale, innovation capability, etc.
1. **Customer interviews**: Ask about product satisfaction, repurchase rate, whether they recommend to others
2. **Supplier interviews**: Understand if company pays on time, if cooperation is stable
3. **Competitor interviews**: Learn about industry position, technological advantages
4. **Former employee interviews**: Understand company culture, management capability
5. **Industry expert interviews**: Learn about industry trends, company prospects
Fisher believed that through multi-party verification, one can discover true situations that financial statements cannot reflect, such as management integrity, employee morale, innovation capability, etc.
Basic Usage
What is Fisher's investment philosophy?
Philip Fisher was the pioneer of growth stock investing. His core philosophy is: "Buy superior growth stocks and hold them long-term." Fisher didn't pursue buying cheap, but sought excellent companies with sustained growth potential. He invented the famous "Scuttlebutt Method": learning the company's true situation comprehensively by talking with customers, suppliers, competitors, employees, etc. Fisher's portfolio was very concentrated, usually holding only 3-10 companies, but each deeply researched. He emphasized: "Investment is about the future, not the past."
Effectiveness & Accuracy
Is Fisher's "scuttlebutt" method still effective in the information age?
Core concept still effective, tools and channels are richer:
✅ **Still effective**:
- Qualitative research (management, competitive advantage) can't be fully replaced by data
- Industry insider opinions remain most valuable information
- Product experience and user feedback remain important signals
🔄 **Modern "scuttlebutt"**:
- User reviews and complaints on social media
- Employee reviews on Glassdoor
- Industry forums and professional communities
- Product reviews and user data
💡 **Insight**: Scuttlebutt's essence is understanding a company from multiple angles, this principle never goes out of date
✅ **Still effective**:
- Qualitative research (management, competitive advantage) can't be fully replaced by data
- Industry insider opinions remain most valuable information
- Product experience and user feedback remain important signals
🔄 **Modern "scuttlebutt"**:
- User reviews and complaints on social media
- Employee reviews on Glassdoor
- Industry forums and professional communities
- Product reviews and user data
💡 **Insight**: Scuttlebutt's essence is understanding a company from multiple angles, this principle never goes out of date
Result Interpretation
Is AI's 'scuttlebutt' research reliable?
⚠️ AI cannot truly do 'scuttlebutt' research.
Fisher's scuttlebutt core: chatting with company employees, customers, suppliers, competitors for firsthand information. AI can't do this.
AI can help:
✅ Organize public user reviews, industry comments
✅ Analyze competitors' public assessments
✅ Compile analyst opinions
But you still need to:
🔍 Check real user feedback on review sites
🔍 Ask people around you about the company's products
🔍 Monitor employee satisfaction (Glassdoor, etc.)
Fisher's scuttlebutt core: chatting with company employees, customers, suppliers, competitors for firsthand information. AI can't do this.
AI can help:
✅ Organize public user reviews, industry comments
✅ Analyze competitors' public assessments
✅ Compile analyst opinions
But you still need to:
🔍 Check real user feedback on review sites
🔍 Ask people around you about the company's products
🔍 Monitor employee satisfaction (Glassdoor, etc.)
After Fisher-style analysis, what to do next?
✅ Fisher's 15 stock selection principles (condensed):
1️⃣ Does company have growing market?
2️⃣ Is management committed to new products?
3️⃣ How is R&D spending relative to size?
4️⃣ Are profit margins excellent and improving?
5️⃣ Is management honest and open?
If all answers are "yes", worth deep research.
Fisher's core: buy excellent growth stocks, hold for life.
1️⃣ Does company have growing market?
2️⃣ Is management committed to new products?
3️⃣ How is R&D spending relative to size?
4️⃣ Are profit margins excellent and improving?
5️⃣ Is management honest and open?
If all answers are "yes", worth deep research.
Fisher's core: buy excellent growth stocks, hold for life.