Contrarianism - AI Analysis Prompt
Use this Howard Marks rule prompt to apply “Contrarianism” to a specific company. It turns a vague opinion into a repeatable checklist: what facts you must verify, which assumptions matter most, what would invalidate the thesis, and the common misreads that create false certainty. Expect a written output you can save: a thesis summary, key risks, and next-step questions for filings and earnings calls. If a claim matters, require primary-source citations before you act. Educational only — not investment advice.
Full Prompt
You are an investment analyst trained in Howard Marks's principle of "Contrarianism." Your core philosophy: second-level thinking, risk awareness, market cycles. Your task is to analyze {Company Name} through the specific lens of this principle.
## Context
Howard Marks teaches: "To achieve superior results, you have to hold non-consensus views about value, and they have to be accurate."
## Analysis Framework
### 1. Principle Application Assessment
- How does this principle specifically apply to {Company Name}?
- What aspects of the company are most relevant to "Contrarianism"?
- Rate the company's alignment with this principle: Strong / Moderate / Weak
- What would Howard Marks focus on first when evaluating this company?
### 2. Quantitative Evidence
- Identify 3-5 key financial metrics most relevant to this principle
- Analyze these metrics over the past 5-10 years for {Company Name}
- Compare with industry peers and historical benchmarks
- Are the numbers improving, stable, or deteriorating?
- What story do the numbers tell through the lens of "Contrarianism"?
### 3. Qualitative Deep Dive
- Evaluate the non-quantifiable factors Howard Marks would examine
- Management quality and alignment with this principle
- Industry dynamics and competitive position
- Business model sustainability viewed through this specific lens
- What would Howard Marks want to know that isn't in the financial statements?
### 4. Risk Assessment Through This Lens
- What risks does this principle specifically highlight for {Company Name}?
- What could go wrong that this principle is designed to protect against?
- Are there warning signs that Howard Marks would flag?
- Stress-test: How would this company perform under adverse conditions?
- What is the worst-case scenario from this principle's perspective?
### 5. Opportunity Identification
- What opportunities does analyzing through this lens reveal?
- Are there hidden strengths the market may be undervaluing?
- How does this company compare to Howard Marks's ideal investment?
- What catalysts could unlock value related to this principle?
### 6. Marks Verdict
- Summarize: Does {Company Name} pass the "Contrarianism" test?
- Rate the investment opportunity: 1-10 from this principle's perspective
- Clear recommendation: Buy / Hold / Avoid (based on this principle alone)
- What conditions would change your assessment?
- One-paragraph summary capturing Howard Marks's likely assessment
## Output Format
Present your analysis with specific data points in each section. Use Howard Marks's analytical style: contrarian risk-focused analysis with emphasis on what could go wrong. End with a decisive verdict.Related reading (close the loop)
Pick one path below to turn the output into a checkable, repeatable decision policy.
- Read the matching principleDefinition, boundaries, pitfalls, and a minimal checklist.
- Master profileMethodology summary + common misreads for this framework.
- Practice in scenariosTranslate conclusions into “what I do under stress”.
- More prompts from this masterTriangulate with multiple rules instead of anchoring on one prompt.
Educational only. Verify facts with primary sources and apply your own constraints.
Basic Questions
What's the difference between contrarian investing and 'buying the dip'?
Many equate contrarianism with dip-buying, but Marks has deeper insight:
❌ NOT contrarian:
- Buying just because a stock dropped (could be a value trap)
- Being contrary for its own sake (consensus is right most of the time)
✅ TRUE contrarianism:
- Buying when others sell due to panic emotions (not fundamental deterioration)
- Selling when others buy due to euphoria (not fundamental improvement)
- Requires independent thinking: Why are you more right than the market?
Key: It's not about going against the market, but acting when the market makes emotional errors.
❌ NOT contrarian:
- Buying just because a stock dropped (could be a value trap)
- Being contrary for its own sake (consensus is right most of the time)
✅ TRUE contrarianism:
- Buying when others sell due to panic emotions (not fundamental deterioration)
- Selling when others buy due to euphoria (not fundamental improvement)
- Requires independent thinking: Why are you more right than the market?
Key: It's not about going against the market, but acting when the market makes emotional errors.
Usage Tips
Is the AI's 1-10 rating reliable?
⚠️ The contrarian score reflects "degree of deviation from market consensus" and must be validated against fundamentals.
The rating's unique value:
- Helps quantify a stock's "contrarian appeal" — a high score suggests the market may be excessively pessimistic
- Identifies "false contrarian" opportunities (being cheap alone doesn't justify contrarian buying)
- Distinguishes between "contrarian" and "foolish" — some companies are cheap for good reason
Important reminders:
- Contrarian investing doesn't mean simply doing the opposite; you must verify your logic is sounder than market consensus
- AI cannot predict "when the market will correct its mispricing" — timing is your responsibility
- The best contrarian opportunities often appear when you feel most uncomfortable
The rating's unique value:
- Helps quantify a stock's "contrarian appeal" — a high score suggests the market may be excessively pessimistic
- Identifies "false contrarian" opportunities (being cheap alone doesn't justify contrarian buying)
- Distinguishes between "contrarian" and "foolish" — some companies are cheap for good reason
Important reminders:
- Contrarian investing doesn't mean simply doing the opposite; you must verify your logic is sounder than market consensus
- AI cannot predict "when the market will correct its mispricing" — timing is your responsibility
- The best contrarian opportunities often appear when you feel most uncomfortable
Getting started
Does this prompt give investment advice or buy/sell calls?
No. It is a research helper that turns your thinking into checkable inputs and constraints: what evidence you must verify, what would prove the thesis wrong, and what common misreads to avoid. Treat the output as a draft, not a signal. Validate every material number against primary sources (filings, earnings releases, investor presentations, transcripts), and do not act unless you can write down (1) position-size limits and (2) explicit invalidation triggers.
What inputs should I provide for a reliable result?
At minimum: a 1-sentence business model summary, your current thesis (why it wins/loses), time horizon, and risk constraints; a valuation/price range; and the latest financial statements (profit quality, cash flow, debt/liquidity). Add context that reduces hallucinations: the exact filing period, known one-offs, key competitors, and what you do NOT know yet. If an input is missing, label it as missing evidence instead of letting the model guess.
Validation and boundaries
How do I validate the output?
Validate falsifiable claims one by one. Rewrite each key statement into something you can check: the metric, the period, and the source. Numbers must match filings; management claims must be traceable to transcripts/guidance; and “moat” claims need observable evidence (pricing power, retention, switching costs, cost structure). Anything you cannot verify becomes a follow-up task, not a decision trigger. If the model cites dates, confirm they are not beyond its knowledge cutoff.
When should I NOT act on the output?
If you cannot write down invalidation triggers, a position-size cap, or primary-source evidence for the key claims behind “Contrarianism”, do not act. The safer move is usually to reduce size, slow down, and schedule the next review.
More Rule Prompts
Explore other investment principles from this master.
Knowing What You Don't Know
The greatest investing advantage is humility - knowing what you don't know and acting accordingly.
→Patient Opportunism
The key to investment success is waiting for the fat pitch - the opportunity that offers exceptional value with limited risk.
→Combating Negative Influences
The biggest investing errors come from psychological factors - greed, fear, envy, ego, and the desire to conform.
→The Pendulum
The mood swings of the securities markets resemble the movement of a pendulum. Although the midpoint best describes the average, the pendulum spends very little time there.
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