Avoid Speculation - Prompt de Análisis IA
Use this Benjamin Graham rule prompt to apply “Evita la Especulación” to a specific company. It turns a vague opinion into a repeatable checklist: what facts you must verify, which assumptions matter most, what would invalidate the thesis, and the common misreads that create false certainty. Expect a written output you can save: a thesis summary, key risks, and next-step questions for filings and earnings calls. If a claim matters, require primary-source citations before you act. Educational only — not investment advice.
Prompt completo
Eres un analista de inversiones entrenado en el principio de Benjamin Graham: "Avoid Speculation". Tu tarea es analizar {Nombre de la Empresa} a través de esta perspectiva específica.
## Contexto
Benjamin Graham enseña: "The defensive investor will avoid the temptation to stray into the unknown in search of higher returns."
## Marco de Análisis
### 1. Evaluación de Aplicación del Principio
- ¿Cómo se aplica específicamente este principio a {Nombre de la Empresa}?
- ¿Qué aspectos de la empresa son más relevantes para "Avoid Speculation"?
- Califica la alineación: Fuerte / Moderada / Débil
- ¿En qué se enfocaría Benjamin Graham primero?
### 2. Evidencia Cuantitativa
- Identifica 3-5 métricas financieras clave relevantes
- Analiza estas métricas durante los últimos 5-10 años
- Compara con competidores y benchmarks históricos
- ¿Los números están mejorando, estables o deteriorándose?
### 3. Análisis Cualitativo
- Evalúa factores no cuantificables que Benjamin Graham examinaría
- Calidad de la gestión y alineación con este principio
- Dinámica de la industria y posición competitiva
- Sostenibilidad del modelo de negocio desde esta perspectiva
### 4. Evaluación de Riesgos
- ¿Qué riesgos destaca este principio para {Nombre de la Empresa}?
- ¿Qué señales de advertencia identificaría Benjamin Graham?
- Prueba de estrés: ¿Cómo se desempeñaría bajo condiciones adversas?
- ¿Cuál es el peor escenario desde esta perspectiva?
### 5. Identificación de Oportunidades
- ¿Qué oportunidades revela este análisis?
- ¿Hay fortalezas ocultas que el mercado podría estar subvalorando?
- ¿Qué catalizadores podrían liberar valor?
### 6. Graham Verdict
- ¿{Nombre de la Empresa} pasa la prueba de "Avoid Speculation"?
- Calificación: 1-10
- Recomendación clara: Comprar / Mantener / Evitar
- Resumen en un párrafo
## Formato de Salida
Presenta datos específicos en cada sección. Termina con un veredicto decisivo.Related reading (close the loop)
Pick one path below to turn the output into a checkable, repeatable decision policy.
- Read the matching principleDefinition, boundaries, pitfalls, and a minimal checklist.
- Master profileMethodology summary + common misreads for this framework.
- Practice in scenariosTranslate conclusions into “what I do under stress”.
- More prompts from this masterTriangulate with multiple rules instead of anchoring on one prompt.
Educational only. Verify facts with primary sources and apply your own constraints.
Este contenido solo está disponible en chino e inglés por el momento.
Basic Questions
What is the fundamental difference between investing and speculating?
Graham defined this with strict criteria:
📌 Investment: An operation that, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and an adequate return
📌 Speculation: Everything that doesn't meet the above criteria
Key distinctions:
1. Whether thorough fundamental analysis was conducted
2. Whether principal safety is prioritized (not just returns)
3. Whether return expectations are reasonable (not fantasies)
Many people think they're investing when they're actually speculating — chasing hot stocks, trading frequently, or buying on tips.
📌 Investment: An operation that, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and an adequate return
📌 Speculation: Everything that doesn't meet the above criteria
Key distinctions:
1. Whether thorough fundamental analysis was conducted
2. Whether principal safety is prioritized (not just returns)
3. Whether return expectations are reasonable (not fantasies)
Many people think they're investing when they're actually speculating — chasing hot stocks, trading frequently, or buying on tips.
Usage Tips
Is the AI's 1-10 rating reliable?
⚠️ AI's "speculation risk score" helps objectively judge a trade's speculative degree, avoiding self-deception.
How to interpret:
- **8-10 (pure investment)**: Solid fundamental support, reasonable valuation, margin of safety — meets Graham's definition of investment
- **5-7 (gray zone)**: Some logic holds but speculative elements exist, like over-relying on growth expectations while ignoring current valuation
- **1-4 (highly speculative)**: Lacks fundamental support, driven mainly by price momentum or market sentiment
Graham's core teaching: An investment operation promises safety of principal and adequate return after thorough analysis. Anything not meeting these criteria is speculation. AI helps you honestly face this distinction.
How to interpret:
- **8-10 (pure investment)**: Solid fundamental support, reasonable valuation, margin of safety — meets Graham's definition of investment
- **5-7 (gray zone)**: Some logic holds but speculative elements exist, like over-relying on growth expectations while ignoring current valuation
- **1-4 (highly speculative)**: Lacks fundamental support, driven mainly by price momentum or market sentiment
Graham's core teaching: An investment operation promises safety of principal and adequate return after thorough analysis. Anything not meeting these criteria is speculation. AI helps you honestly face this distinction.
Getting started
Does this prompt give investment advice or buy/sell calls?
No. It is a research helper that turns your thinking into checkable inputs and constraints: what evidence you must verify, what would prove the thesis wrong, and what common misreads to avoid. Treat the output as a draft, not a signal. Validate every material number against primary sources (filings, earnings releases, investor presentations, transcripts), and do not act unless you can write down (1) position-size limits and (2) explicit invalidation triggers.
What inputs should I provide for a reliable result?
At minimum: a 1-sentence business model summary, your current thesis (why it wins/loses), time horizon, and risk constraints; a valuation/price range; and the latest financial statements (profit quality, cash flow, debt/liquidity). Add context that reduces hallucinations: the exact filing period, known one-offs, key competitors, and what you do NOT know yet. If an input is missing, label it as missing evidence instead of letting the model guess.
Validation and boundaries
How do I validate the output?
Validate falsifiable claims one by one. Rewrite each key statement into something you can check: the metric, the period, and the source. Numbers must match filings; management claims must be traceable to transcripts/guidance; and “moat” claims need observable evidence (pricing power, retention, switching costs, cost structure). Anything you cannot verify becomes a follow-up task, not a decision trigger. If the model cites dates, confirm they are not beyond its knowledge cutoff.
When should I NOT act on the output?
If you cannot write down invalidation triggers, a position-size cap, or primary-source evidence for the key claims behind “Evita la Especulación”, do not act. The safer move is usually to reduce size, slow down, and schedule the next review.
Más prompts de reglas
Explora otros principios de inversión de este maestro.
Busca Ayuda Profesional
El inversor defensivo necesita buscar asesoramiento profesional.
→Perspectiva a Largo Plazo
El inversor debe guiarse por consideraciones a largo plazo y no por fluctuaciones del mercado a corto plazo.
→Reequilibrio
El inversor debe reequilibrar periódicamente su cartera para mantener la asignación de activos deseada.
→Fondos Indexados
Un fondo indexado es la mejor opción para el inversor que no puede o no quiere dedicar tiempo a la selección de valores.
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