Concentrated Bets - Prompt de Análisis IA
Analiza cualquier empresa usando el principio de Bill Ackman: "Concentrated Bets". Este prompt aplica esta sabiduría de inversión para evaluar empresas sistemáticamente.
Prompt completo
Eres un analista de inversiones entrenado en el principio de Bill Ackman: "Concentrated Bets". Tu tarea es analizar {Nombre de la Empresa} a través de esta perspectiva específica.
## Contexto
Bill Ackman enseña: "Make a few big, well-researched bets rather than many small ones. Concentration builds conviction and focus."
## Marco de Análisis
### 1. Evaluación de Aplicación del Principio
- ¿Cómo se aplica específicamente este principio a {Nombre de la Empresa}?
- ¿Qué aspectos de la empresa son más relevantes para "Concentrated Bets"?
- Califica la alineación: Fuerte / Moderada / Débil
- ¿En qué se enfocaría Bill Ackman primero?
### 2. Evidencia Cuantitativa
- Identifica 3-5 métricas financieras clave relevantes
- Analiza estas métricas durante los últimos 5-10 años
- Compara con competidores y benchmarks históricos
- ¿Los números están mejorando, estables o deteriorándose?
### 3. Análisis Cualitativo
- Evalúa factores no cuantificables que Bill Ackman examinaría
- Calidad de la gestión y alineación con este principio
- Dinámica de la industria y posición competitiva
- Sostenibilidad del modelo de negocio desde esta perspectiva
### 4. Evaluación de Riesgos
- ¿Qué riesgos destaca este principio para {Nombre de la Empresa}?
- ¿Qué señales de advertencia identificaría Bill Ackman?
- Prueba de estrés: ¿Cómo se desempeñaría bajo condiciones adversas?
- ¿Cuál es el peor escenario desde esta perspectiva?
### 5. Identificación de Oportunidades
- ¿Qué oportunidades revela este análisis?
- ¿Hay fortalezas ocultas que el mercado podría estar subvalorando?
- ¿Qué catalizadores podrían liberar valor?
### 6. Ackman Verdict
- ¿{Nombre de la Empresa} pasa la prueba de "Concentrated Bets"?
- Calificación: 1-10
- Recomendación clara: Comprar / Mantener / Evitar
- Resumen en un párrafo
## Formato de Salida
Presenta datos específicos en cada sección. Termina con un veredicto decisivo.Este contenido solo está disponible en chino e inglés por el momento.
Basic Questions
What are Ackman's successes and failures with concentrated bets?
Core idea: concentrated bets on a few high-conviction investment opportunities
✅ Using this AI prompt, you can systematically analyze any company or investment opportunity from this principle's perspective.
The prompt guides you to:
1. Assess whether the investment target meets this principle's core requirements
2. Identify key risks and blind spots
3. Provide a 1-10 comprehensive rating
Start by analyzing companies you know well for practice, then apply the framework to new investment decisions.
✅ Using this AI prompt, you can systematically analyze any company or investment opportunity from this principle's perspective.
The prompt guides you to:
1. Assess whether the investment target meets this principle's core requirements
2. Identify key risks and blind spots
3. Provide a 1-10 comprehensive rating
Start by analyzing companies you know well for practice, then apply the framework to new investment decisions.
Usage Tips
Is the AI's 1-10 rating reliable?
⚠️ The scoring threshold for concentrated bets is much higher than for diversified investing.
The rating's value:
- Ackman's concentration demands high conviction — companies scoring below 8 aren't worth concentrating on
- Quick elimination of unqualified candidates, but making the cut is just the beginning
- Compare against your core holdings' scores to judge if new opportunities warrant 'replacing' existing positions
Key limitations:
- Ackman's concentration decisions rest on 'I understand this better than the market' — a high AI score doesn't mean you have that conviction
- Concentration requires considering portfolio correlation — even high individual scores don't justify inclusion if highly correlated with existing holdings
- Ackman's concentration in Valeant led to massive losses — concentration risk is real, and AI scores can't eliminate it
✅ Right approach: A high AI score is necessary but not sufficient — you must confirm you have an information edge and that the thesis survives extreme stress tests.
The rating's value:
- Ackman's concentration demands high conviction — companies scoring below 8 aren't worth concentrating on
- Quick elimination of unqualified candidates, but making the cut is just the beginning
- Compare against your core holdings' scores to judge if new opportunities warrant 'replacing' existing positions
Key limitations:
- Ackman's concentration decisions rest on 'I understand this better than the market' — a high AI score doesn't mean you have that conviction
- Concentration requires considering portfolio correlation — even high individual scores don't justify inclusion if highly correlated with existing holdings
- Ackman's concentration in Valeant led to massive losses — concentration risk is real, and AI scores can't eliminate it
✅ Right approach: A high AI score is necessary but not sufficient — you must confirm you have an information edge and that the thesis survives extreme stress tests.
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