Simple, Predictable Businesses - Prompt de Análisis IA
Analiza cualquier empresa usando el principio de Bill Ackman: "Simple, Predictable Businesses". Este prompt aplica esta sabiduría de inversión para evaluar empresas sistemáticamente.
Prompt completo
Eres un analista de inversiones entrenado en el principio de Bill Ackman: "Simple, Predictable Businesses". Tu tarea es analizar {Nombre de la Empresa} a través de esta perspectiva específica.
## Contexto
Bill Ackman enseña: "Invest in simple businesses with predictable cash flows. Complexity creates uncertainty and analytical error."
## Marco de Análisis
### 1. Evaluación de Aplicación del Principio
- ¿Cómo se aplica específicamente este principio a {Nombre de la Empresa}?
- ¿Qué aspectos de la empresa son más relevantes para "Simple, Predictable Businesses"?
- Califica la alineación: Fuerte / Moderada / Débil
- ¿En qué se enfocaría Bill Ackman primero?
### 2. Evidencia Cuantitativa
- Identifica 3-5 métricas financieras clave relevantes
- Analiza estas métricas durante los últimos 5-10 años
- Compara con competidores y benchmarks históricos
- ¿Los números están mejorando, estables o deteriorándose?
### 3. Análisis Cualitativo
- Evalúa factores no cuantificables que Bill Ackman examinaría
- Calidad de la gestión y alineación con este principio
- Dinámica de la industria y posición competitiva
- Sostenibilidad del modelo de negocio desde esta perspectiva
### 4. Evaluación de Riesgos
- ¿Qué riesgos destaca este principio para {Nombre de la Empresa}?
- ¿Qué señales de advertencia identificaría Bill Ackman?
- Prueba de estrés: ¿Cómo se desempeñaría bajo condiciones adversas?
- ¿Cuál es el peor escenario desde esta perspectiva?
### 5. Identificación de Oportunidades
- ¿Qué oportunidades revela este análisis?
- ¿Hay fortalezas ocultas que el mercado podría estar subvalorando?
- ¿Qué catalizadores podrían liberar valor?
### 6. Ackman Verdict
- ¿{Nombre de la Empresa} pasa la prueba de "Simple, Predictable Businesses"?
- Calificación: 1-10
- Recomendación clara: Comprar / Mantener / Evitar
- Resumen en un párrafo
## Formato de Salida
Presenta datos específicos en cada sección. Termina con un veredicto decisivo.Este contenido solo está disponible en chino e inglés por el momento.
Basic Questions
Why does Ackman prefer companies with simple business models?
Core idea: choose companies with simple business models and predictable revenue
✅ Using this AI prompt, you can systematically analyze any company or investment opportunity from this principle's perspective.
The prompt guides you to:
1. Assess whether the investment target meets this principle's core requirements
2. Identify key risks and blind spots
3. Provide a 1-10 comprehensive rating
Start by analyzing companies you know well for practice, then apply the framework to new investment decisions.
✅ Using this AI prompt, you can systematically analyze any company or investment opportunity from this principle's perspective.
The prompt guides you to:
1. Assess whether the investment target meets this principle's core requirements
2. Identify key risks and blind spots
3. Provide a 1-10 comprehensive rating
Start by analyzing companies you know well for practice, then apply the framework to new investment decisions.
Usage Tips
Is the AI's 1-10 rating reliable?
⚠️ The rating may overvalue complex businesses.
The rating's value:
- Simple, predictable companies typically score more consistently — because AI can 'understand' them more easily too
- If the AI's analysis is full of uncertain assumptions and complex conditionals, the company may not be 'simple' enough
- Companies with low score volatility are usually more predictable than those with high volatility
Key limitations:
- Complex companies' AI scores may look fine, but Ackman would say 'if you need a complex Excel model to understand it, it's too complicated'
- The score can't reflect a business model's 'intuitive understandability' — Ackman's core simplicity criterion
- Tech and cyclical companies may score high but fail the 'predictable' standard
✅ Right approach: If after reading the AI analysis you think 'this is too complex, I don't quite get it,' the company is probably not simple and predictable enough. Trust your instinct.
The rating's value:
- Simple, predictable companies typically score more consistently — because AI can 'understand' them more easily too
- If the AI's analysis is full of uncertain assumptions and complex conditionals, the company may not be 'simple' enough
- Companies with low score volatility are usually more predictable than those with high volatility
Key limitations:
- Complex companies' AI scores may look fine, but Ackman would say 'if you need a complex Excel model to understand it, it's too complicated'
- The score can't reflect a business model's 'intuitive understandability' — Ackman's core simplicity criterion
- Tech and cyclical companies may score high but fail the 'predictable' standard
✅ Right approach: If after reading the AI analysis you think 'this is too complex, I don't quite get it,' the company is probably not simple and predictable enough. Trust your instinct.
Más prompts de reglas
Explora otros principios de inversión de este maestro.
Concentrated Bets
Make a few big, well-researched bets rather than many small ones. Concentration builds conviction and focus.
→Activist Value Creation
When you see value trapped by poor management, take action to unlock it. Be a catalyst for change.
→Asymmetric Upside
Structure positions with limited downside and significant upside potential. The best trades make many times your risk.
→Public Advocacy
Sometimes taking your case public can accelerate change. Use media and presentations to make your case.
→