Contrarianism - Prompt de Análisis IA
Use this Howard Marks rule prompt to apply “Contrarianism” to a specific company. It turns a vague opinion into a repeatable checklist: what facts you must verify, which assumptions matter most, what would invalidate the thesis, and the common misreads that create false certainty. Expect a written output you can save: a thesis summary, key risks, and next-step questions for filings and earnings calls. If a claim matters, require primary-source citations before you act. Educational only — not investment advice.
Prompt completo
Eres un analista de inversiones entrenado en el principio de Howard Marks: "Contrarianism". Tu tarea es analizar {Nombre de la Empresa} a través de esta perspectiva específica.
## Contexto
Howard Marks enseña: "To achieve superior results, you have to hold non-consensus views about value, and they have to be accurate."
## Marco de Análisis
### 1. Evaluación de Aplicación del Principio
- ¿Cómo se aplica específicamente este principio a {Nombre de la Empresa}?
- ¿Qué aspectos de la empresa son más relevantes para "Contrarianism"?
- Califica la alineación: Fuerte / Moderada / Débil
- ¿En qué se enfocaría Howard Marks primero?
### 2. Evidencia Cuantitativa
- Identifica 3-5 métricas financieras clave relevantes
- Analiza estas métricas durante los últimos 5-10 años
- Compara con competidores y benchmarks históricos
- ¿Los números están mejorando, estables o deteriorándose?
### 3. Análisis Cualitativo
- Evalúa factores no cuantificables que Howard Marks examinaría
- Calidad de la gestión y alineación con este principio
- Dinámica de la industria y posición competitiva
- Sostenibilidad del modelo de negocio desde esta perspectiva
### 4. Evaluación de Riesgos
- ¿Qué riesgos destaca este principio para {Nombre de la Empresa}?
- ¿Qué señales de advertencia identificaría Howard Marks?
- Prueba de estrés: ¿Cómo se desempeñaría bajo condiciones adversas?
- ¿Cuál es el peor escenario desde esta perspectiva?
### 5. Identificación de Oportunidades
- ¿Qué oportunidades revela este análisis?
- ¿Hay fortalezas ocultas que el mercado podría estar subvalorando?
- ¿Qué catalizadores podrían liberar valor?
### 6. Marks Verdict
- ¿{Nombre de la Empresa} pasa la prueba de "Contrarianism"?
- Calificación: 1-10
- Recomendación clara: Comprar / Mantener / Evitar
- Resumen en un párrafo
## Formato de Salida
Presenta datos específicos en cada sección. Termina con un veredicto decisivo.Related reading (close the loop)
Pick one path below to turn the output into a checkable, repeatable decision policy.
- Read the matching principleDefinition, boundaries, pitfalls, and a minimal checklist.
- Master profileMethodology summary + common misreads for this framework.
- Practice in scenariosTranslate conclusions into “what I do under stress”.
- More prompts from this masterTriangulate with multiple rules instead of anchoring on one prompt.
Educational only. Verify facts with primary sources and apply your own constraints.
Este contenido solo está disponible en chino e inglés por el momento.
Basic Questions
What's the difference between contrarian investing and 'buying the dip'?
Many equate contrarianism with dip-buying, but Marks has deeper insight:
❌ NOT contrarian:
- Buying just because a stock dropped (could be a value trap)
- Being contrary for its own sake (consensus is right most of the time)
✅ TRUE contrarianism:
- Buying when others sell due to panic emotions (not fundamental deterioration)
- Selling when others buy due to euphoria (not fundamental improvement)
- Requires independent thinking: Why are you more right than the market?
Key: It's not about going against the market, but acting when the market makes emotional errors.
❌ NOT contrarian:
- Buying just because a stock dropped (could be a value trap)
- Being contrary for its own sake (consensus is right most of the time)
✅ TRUE contrarianism:
- Buying when others sell due to panic emotions (not fundamental deterioration)
- Selling when others buy due to euphoria (not fundamental improvement)
- Requires independent thinking: Why are you more right than the market?
Key: It's not about going against the market, but acting when the market makes emotional errors.
Usage Tips
Is the AI's 1-10 rating reliable?
⚠️ The contrarian score reflects "degree of deviation from market consensus" and must be validated against fundamentals.
The rating's unique value:
- Helps quantify a stock's "contrarian appeal" — a high score suggests the market may be excessively pessimistic
- Identifies "false contrarian" opportunities (being cheap alone doesn't justify contrarian buying)
- Distinguishes between "contrarian" and "foolish" — some companies are cheap for good reason
Important reminders:
- Contrarian investing doesn't mean simply doing the opposite; you must verify your logic is sounder than market consensus
- AI cannot predict "when the market will correct its mispricing" — timing is your responsibility
- The best contrarian opportunities often appear when you feel most uncomfortable
The rating's unique value:
- Helps quantify a stock's "contrarian appeal" — a high score suggests the market may be excessively pessimistic
- Identifies "false contrarian" opportunities (being cheap alone doesn't justify contrarian buying)
- Distinguishes between "contrarian" and "foolish" — some companies are cheap for good reason
Important reminders:
- Contrarian investing doesn't mean simply doing the opposite; you must verify your logic is sounder than market consensus
- AI cannot predict "when the market will correct its mispricing" — timing is your responsibility
- The best contrarian opportunities often appear when you feel most uncomfortable
Getting started
Does this prompt give investment advice or buy/sell calls?
No. It is a research helper that turns your thinking into checkable inputs and constraints: what evidence you must verify, what would prove the thesis wrong, and what common misreads to avoid. Treat the output as a draft, not a signal. Validate every material number against primary sources (filings, earnings releases, investor presentations, transcripts), and do not act unless you can write down (1) position-size limits and (2) explicit invalidation triggers.
What inputs should I provide for a reliable result?
At minimum: a 1-sentence business model summary, your current thesis (why it wins/loses), time horizon, and risk constraints; a valuation/price range; and the latest financial statements (profit quality, cash flow, debt/liquidity). Add context that reduces hallucinations: the exact filing period, known one-offs, key competitors, and what you do NOT know yet. If an input is missing, label it as missing evidence instead of letting the model guess.
Validation and boundaries
How do I validate the output?
Validate falsifiable claims one by one. Rewrite each key statement into something you can check: the metric, the period, and the source. Numbers must match filings; management claims must be traceable to transcripts/guidance; and “moat” claims need observable evidence (pricing power, retention, switching costs, cost structure). Anything you cannot verify becomes a follow-up task, not a decision trigger. If the model cites dates, confirm they are not beyond its knowledge cutoff.
When should I NOT act on the output?
If you cannot write down invalidation triggers, a position-size cap, or primary-source evidence for the key claims behind “Contrarianism”, do not act. The safer move is usually to reduce size, slow down, and schedule the next review.
Más prompts de reglas
Explora otros principios de inversión de este maestro.
Saber Lo Que No Sabes
La mayor ventaja en la inversión es la humildad - saber lo que no sabes y actuar en consecuencia.
→Oportunismo Paciente
La clave del éxito en la inversión es esperar el lanzamiento perfecto - la oportunidad que ofrece valor excepcional con riesgo limitado.
→Combatir Influencias Negativas
Los mayores errores de inversión provienen de factores psicológicos - codicia, miedo, envidia, ego y el deseo de conformarse.
→El Péndulo
Los cambios de humor de los mercados de valores se asemejan al movimiento de un péndulo. Aunque el punto medio describe mejor el promedio, el péndulo pasa muy poco tiempo allí.
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