The Pendulum - Prompt de Análisis IA
Use this Howard Marks rule prompt to apply “El Péndulo” to a specific company. It turns a vague opinion into a repeatable checklist: what facts you must verify, which assumptions matter most, what would invalidate the thesis, and the common misreads that create false certainty. Expect a written output you can save: a thesis summary, key risks, and next-step questions for filings and earnings calls. If a claim matters, require primary-source citations before you act. Educational only — not investment advice.
Prompt completo
Eres un analista de inversiones entrenado en el principio de Howard Marks: "The Pendulum". Tu tarea es analizar {Nombre de la Empresa} a través de esta perspectiva específica.
## Contexto
Howard Marks enseña: "The mood swings of the securities markets resemble the movement of a pendulum. Although the midpoint best describes the average, the pendulum spends very little time there."
## Marco de Análisis
### 1. Evaluación de Aplicación del Principio
- ¿Cómo se aplica específicamente este principio a {Nombre de la Empresa}?
- ¿Qué aspectos de la empresa son más relevantes para "The Pendulum"?
- Califica la alineación: Fuerte / Moderada / Débil
- ¿En qué se enfocaría Howard Marks primero?
### 2. Evidencia Cuantitativa
- Identifica 3-5 métricas financieras clave relevantes
- Analiza estas métricas durante los últimos 5-10 años
- Compara con competidores y benchmarks históricos
- ¿Los números están mejorando, estables o deteriorándose?
### 3. Análisis Cualitativo
- Evalúa factores no cuantificables que Howard Marks examinaría
- Calidad de la gestión y alineación con este principio
- Dinámica de la industria y posición competitiva
- Sostenibilidad del modelo de negocio desde esta perspectiva
### 4. Evaluación de Riesgos
- ¿Qué riesgos destaca este principio para {Nombre de la Empresa}?
- ¿Qué señales de advertencia identificaría Howard Marks?
- Prueba de estrés: ¿Cómo se desempeñaría bajo condiciones adversas?
- ¿Cuál es el peor escenario desde esta perspectiva?
### 5. Identificación de Oportunidades
- ¿Qué oportunidades revela este análisis?
- ¿Hay fortalezas ocultas que el mercado podría estar subvalorando?
- ¿Qué catalizadores podrían liberar valor?
### 6. Marks Verdict
- ¿{Nombre de la Empresa} pasa la prueba de "The Pendulum"?
- Calificación: 1-10
- Recomendación clara: Comprar / Mantener / Evitar
- Resumen en un párrafo
## Formato de Salida
Presenta datos específicos en cada sección. Termina con un veredicto decisivo.Related reading (close the loop)
Pick one path below to turn the output into a checkable, repeatable decision policy.
- Read the matching principleDefinition, boundaries, pitfalls, and a minimal checklist.
- Master profileMethodology summary + common misreads for this framework.
- Practice in scenariosTranslate conclusions into “what I do under stress”.
- More prompts from this masterTriangulate with multiple rules instead of anchoring on one prompt.
Educational only. Verify facts with primary sources and apply your own constraints.
Este contenido solo está disponible en chino e inglés por el momento.
Basic Questions
What is the pendulum theory and how to judge where we are in the swing?
Marks observed markets swing like a pendulum between extremes:
⬅️ One end: Extreme pessimism (panic, selling, extremely low valuations)
➡️ Other end: Extreme optimism (euphoria, chasing, extremely high valuations)
⏺️ Middle: Reasonable state (but the pendulum spends the least time here)
🔍 Clues for current position:
1. News headline sentiment (all bad news = near pessimistic extreme)
2. IPO market heat (IPO frenzy = near optimistic extreme)
3. Credit standard tightness (easy lending = near optimistic extreme)
4. People around you (taxi drivers discussing stocks = extreme optimism)
⬅️ One end: Extreme pessimism (panic, selling, extremely low valuations)
➡️ Other end: Extreme optimism (euphoria, chasing, extremely high valuations)
⏺️ Middle: Reasonable state (but the pendulum spends the least time here)
🔍 Clues for current position:
1. News headline sentiment (all bad news = near pessimistic extreme)
2. IPO market heat (IPO frenzy = near optimistic extreme)
3. Credit standard tightness (easy lending = near optimistic extreme)
4. People around you (taxi drivers discussing stocks = extreme optimism)
Usage Tips
Is the AI's 1-10 rating reliable?
⚠️ The cycle score's value lies in "positioning" not "predicting" — it tells you where the pendulum is, but cannot precisely predict when it will reverse.
The rating's special significance:
- Extreme high/low scores are most informative — the pendulum is more likely to reverse at extreme positions
- Scores in the middle range have lower discriminative power, as the pendulum rarely lingers at the midpoint
- The speed of score change matters more than the absolute value — rapid changes suggest violent sentiment swings
Usage principles:
- The pendulum won't exactly repeat history, but the tendency toward "mean reversion" is eternal
- When the score shows an extreme, don't try to pick the exact bottom — scale in gradually
- AI's cycle assessment is based on historical patterns, but each cycle has unique drivers
The rating's special significance:
- Extreme high/low scores are most informative — the pendulum is more likely to reverse at extreme positions
- Scores in the middle range have lower discriminative power, as the pendulum rarely lingers at the midpoint
- The speed of score change matters more than the absolute value — rapid changes suggest violent sentiment swings
Usage principles:
- The pendulum won't exactly repeat history, but the tendency toward "mean reversion" is eternal
- When the score shows an extreme, don't try to pick the exact bottom — scale in gradually
- AI's cycle assessment is based on historical patterns, but each cycle has unique drivers
Getting started
Does this prompt give investment advice or buy/sell calls?
No. It is a research helper that turns your thinking into checkable inputs and constraints: what evidence you must verify, what would prove the thesis wrong, and what common misreads to avoid. Treat the output as a draft, not a signal. Validate every material number against primary sources (filings, earnings releases, investor presentations, transcripts), and do not act unless you can write down (1) position-size limits and (2) explicit invalidation triggers.
What inputs should I provide for a reliable result?
At minimum: a 1-sentence business model summary, your current thesis (why it wins/loses), time horizon, and risk constraints; a valuation/price range; and the latest financial statements (profit quality, cash flow, debt/liquidity). Add context that reduces hallucinations: the exact filing period, known one-offs, key competitors, and what you do NOT know yet. If an input is missing, label it as missing evidence instead of letting the model guess.
Validation and boundaries
How do I validate the output?
Validate falsifiable claims one by one. Rewrite each key statement into something you can check: the metric, the period, and the source. Numbers must match filings; management claims must be traceable to transcripts/guidance; and “moat” claims need observable evidence (pricing power, retention, switching costs, cost structure). Anything you cannot verify becomes a follow-up task, not a decision trigger. If the model cites dates, confirm they are not beyond its knowledge cutoff.
When should I NOT act on the output?
If you cannot write down invalidation triggers, a position-size cap, or primary-source evidence for the key claims behind “El Péndulo”, do not act. The safer move is usually to reduce size, slow down, and schedule the next review.
Más prompts de reglas
Explora otros principios de inversión de este maestro.
Saber Lo Que No Sabes
La mayor ventaja en la inversión es la humildad - saber lo que no sabes y actuar en consecuencia.
→Oportunismo Paciente
La clave del éxito en la inversión es esperar el lanzamiento perfecto - la oportunidad que ofrece valor excepcional con riesgo limitado.
→Contrarianism
Para lograr resultados superiores, debes tener opiniones no consensuadas sobre el valor, y deben ser precisas.
→Combatir Influencias Negativas
Los mayores errores de inversión provienen de factores psicológicos - codicia, miedo, envidia, ego y el deseo de conformarse.
→