Bottom-Up Analysis - Prompt de Análisis IA
Use this Seth Klarman rule prompt to apply “Análisis Bottom-Up” to a specific company. It turns a vague opinion into a repeatable checklist: what facts you must verify, which assumptions matter most, what would invalidate the thesis, and the common misreads that create false certainty. Expect a written output you can save: a thesis summary, key risks, and next-step questions for filings and earnings calls. If a claim matters, require primary-source citations before you act. Educational only — not investment advice.
Prompt completo
Eres un analista de inversiones entrenado en el principio de Seth Klarman: "Bottom-Up Analysis". Tu tarea es analizar {Nombre de la Empresa} a través de esta perspectiva específica.
## Contexto
Seth Klarman enseña: "We are bottom-up investors. We don't make macro predictions - we find individual securities that are mispriced."
## Marco de Análisis
### 1. Evaluación de Aplicación del Principio
- ¿Cómo se aplica específicamente este principio a {Nombre de la Empresa}?
- ¿Qué aspectos de la empresa son más relevantes para "Bottom-Up Analysis"?
- Califica la alineación: Fuerte / Moderada / Débil
- ¿En qué se enfocaría Seth Klarman primero?
### 2. Evidencia Cuantitativa
- Identifica 3-5 métricas financieras clave relevantes
- Analiza estas métricas durante los últimos 5-10 años
- Compara con competidores y benchmarks históricos
- ¿Los números están mejorando, estables o deteriorándose?
### 3. Análisis Cualitativo
- Evalúa factores no cuantificables que Seth Klarman examinaría
- Calidad de la gestión y alineación con este principio
- Dinámica de la industria y posición competitiva
- Sostenibilidad del modelo de negocio desde esta perspectiva
### 4. Evaluación de Riesgos
- ¿Qué riesgos destaca este principio para {Nombre de la Empresa}?
- ¿Qué señales de advertencia identificaría Seth Klarman?
- Prueba de estrés: ¿Cómo se desempeñaría bajo condiciones adversas?
- ¿Cuál es el peor escenario desde esta perspectiva?
### 5. Identificación de Oportunidades
- ¿Qué oportunidades revela este análisis?
- ¿Hay fortalezas ocultas que el mercado podría estar subvalorando?
- ¿Qué catalizadores podrían liberar valor?
### 6. Klarman Verdict
- ¿{Nombre de la Empresa} pasa la prueba de "Bottom-Up Analysis"?
- Calificación: 1-10
- Recomendación clara: Comprar / Mantener / Evitar
- Resumen en un párrafo
## Formato de Salida
Presenta datos específicos en cada sección. Termina con un veredicto decisivo.Related reading (close the loop)
Pick one path below to turn the output into a checkable, repeatable decision policy.
- Read the matching principleDefinition, boundaries, pitfalls, and a minimal checklist.
- Master profileMethodology summary + common misreads for this framework.
- Practice in scenariosTranslate conclusions into “what I do under stress”.
- More prompts from this masterTriangulate with multiple rules instead of anchoring on one prompt.
Educational only. Verify facts with primary sources and apply your own constraints.
Este contenido solo está disponible en chino e inglés por el momento.
Basic Questions
Why is bottom-up analysis better suited for individual investors than macro forecasting?
Klarman insists on bottom-up analysis because:
📌 Problems with macro forecasting:
1. Extremely low accuracy — even central banks and economists frequently err
2. Even if direction is right, timing is hard
3. Correct macro doesn't mean correct stock picks
✅ Bottom-up advantages:
1. You can study every detail of a single company
2. Company financial data is verifiable (unlike lagging macro indicators)
3. Finding undervalued good companies profits regardless of macro environment
Klarman's method: Find good companies first, then check if macro poses additional risk.
📌 Problems with macro forecasting:
1. Extremely low accuracy — even central banks and economists frequently err
2. Even if direction is right, timing is hard
3. Correct macro doesn't mean correct stock picks
✅ Bottom-up advantages:
1. You can study every detail of a single company
2. Company financial data is verifiable (unlike lagging macro indicators)
3. Finding undervalued good companies profits regardless of macro environment
Klarman's method: Find good companies first, then check if macro poses additional risk.
Usage Tips
Is the AI's 1-10 rating reliable?
⚠️ The bottom-up score measures "your depth of understanding of this specific company," not macro trend judgment.
The rating's unique logic:
- Klarman believes most investors err because they decide top-down — looking at macro first then finding targets, rather than starting from the specific company
- A high score means your analysis focuses on the company's intrinsic value, undistracted by macro noise
- A low score suggests your analysis may over-rely on macro judgments or industry trends while neglecting company specifics
Usage notes:
- Bottom-up doesn't mean "ignore macro" but rather "look at the company first, then consider how macro affects the company"
- AI may unconsciously inject too much macro narrative — insist it focus on company-specific data
- The best bottom-up analysis answers: "What is this company worth at a minimum?" (liquidation value thinking)
The rating's unique logic:
- Klarman believes most investors err because they decide top-down — looking at macro first then finding targets, rather than starting from the specific company
- A high score means your analysis focuses on the company's intrinsic value, undistracted by macro noise
- A low score suggests your analysis may over-rely on macro judgments or industry trends while neglecting company specifics
Usage notes:
- Bottom-up doesn't mean "ignore macro" but rather "look at the company first, then consider how macro affects the company"
- AI may unconsciously inject too much macro narrative — insist it focus on company-specific data
- The best bottom-up analysis answers: "What is this company worth at a minimum?" (liquidation value thinking)
Getting started
Does this prompt give investment advice or buy/sell calls?
No. It is a research helper that turns your thinking into checkable inputs and constraints: what evidence you must verify, what would prove the thesis wrong, and what common misreads to avoid. Treat the output as a draft, not a signal. Validate every material number against primary sources (filings, earnings releases, investor presentations, transcripts), and do not act unless you can write down (1) position-size limits and (2) explicit invalidation triggers.
What inputs should I provide for a reliable result?
At minimum: a 1-sentence business model summary, your current thesis (why it wins/loses), time horizon, and risk constraints; a valuation/price range; and the latest financial statements (profit quality, cash flow, debt/liquidity). Add context that reduces hallucinations: the exact filing period, known one-offs, key competitors, and what you do NOT know yet. If an input is missing, label it as missing evidence instead of letting the model guess.
Validation and boundaries
How do I validate the output?
Validate falsifiable claims one by one. Rewrite each key statement into something you can check: the metric, the period, and the source. Numbers must match filings; management claims must be traceable to transcripts/guidance; and “moat” claims need observable evidence (pricing power, retention, switching costs, cost structure). Anything you cannot verify becomes a follow-up task, not a decision trigger. If the model cites dates, confirm they are not beyond its knowledge cutoff.
When should I NOT act on the output?
If you cannot write down invalidation triggers, a position-size cap, or primary-source evidence for the key claims behind “Análisis Bottom-Up”, do not act. The safer move is usually to reduce size, slow down, and schedule the next review.
Más prompts de reglas
Explora otros principios de inversión de este maestro.
Honestidad Intelectual
Debes ser intelectualmente honesto contigo mismo. Admite cuando te equivocas. Aprende de los errores. No racionalices malas decisiones.
→Paciencia
La paciencia es una virtud esencial para los inversores en valor. El mercado eventualmente reconocerá el valor, pero el momento es incierto.
→Situaciones Complejas
Buscamos oportunidad en la complejidad - escisiones, reestructuraciones, quiebras. Donde otros ven caos, nosotros vemos valor potencial.
→Inversión Impulsada por Catalizadores
Preferimos inversiones donde existe un catalizador para desbloquear valor. El tiempo es dinero - queremos saber por qué y cuándo se realizará el valor.
→