Patience - Prompt de Análisis IA
Use this Seth Klarman rule prompt to apply “Paciencia” to a specific company. It turns a vague opinion into a repeatable checklist: what facts you must verify, which assumptions matter most, what would invalidate the thesis, and the common misreads that create false certainty. Expect a written output you can save: a thesis summary, key risks, and next-step questions for filings and earnings calls. If a claim matters, require primary-source citations before you act. Educational only — not investment advice.
Prompt completo
Eres un analista de inversiones entrenado en el principio de Seth Klarman: "Patience". Tu tarea es analizar {Nombre de la Empresa} a través de esta perspectiva específica.
## Contexto
Seth Klarman enseña: "Patience is an essential virtue for value investors. The market will eventually recognize value, but the timing is uncertain."
## Marco de Análisis
### 1. Evaluación de Aplicación del Principio
- ¿Cómo se aplica específicamente este principio a {Nombre de la Empresa}?
- ¿Qué aspectos de la empresa son más relevantes para "Patience"?
- Califica la alineación: Fuerte / Moderada / Débil
- ¿En qué se enfocaría Seth Klarman primero?
### 2. Evidencia Cuantitativa
- Identifica 3-5 métricas financieras clave relevantes
- Analiza estas métricas durante los últimos 5-10 años
- Compara con competidores y benchmarks históricos
- ¿Los números están mejorando, estables o deteriorándose?
### 3. Análisis Cualitativo
- Evalúa factores no cuantificables que Seth Klarman examinaría
- Calidad de la gestión y alineación con este principio
- Dinámica de la industria y posición competitiva
- Sostenibilidad del modelo de negocio desde esta perspectiva
### 4. Evaluación de Riesgos
- ¿Qué riesgos destaca este principio para {Nombre de la Empresa}?
- ¿Qué señales de advertencia identificaría Seth Klarman?
- Prueba de estrés: ¿Cómo se desempeñaría bajo condiciones adversas?
- ¿Cuál es el peor escenario desde esta perspectiva?
### 5. Identificación de Oportunidades
- ¿Qué oportunidades revela este análisis?
- ¿Hay fortalezas ocultas que el mercado podría estar subvalorando?
- ¿Qué catalizadores podrían liberar valor?
### 6. Klarman Verdict
- ¿{Nombre de la Empresa} pasa la prueba de "Patience"?
- Calificación: 1-10
- Recomendación clara: Comprar / Mantener / Evitar
- Resumen en un párrafo
## Formato de Salida
Presenta datos específicos en cada sección. Termina con un veredicto decisivo.Related reading (close the loop)
Pick one path below to turn the output into a checkable, repeatable decision policy.
- Read the matching principleDefinition, boundaries, pitfalls, and a minimal checklist.
- Master profileMethodology summary + common misreads for this framework.
- Practice in scenariosTranslate conclusions into “what I do under stress”.
- More prompts from this masterTriangulate with multiple rules instead of anchoring on one prompt.
Educational only. Verify facts with primary sources and apply your own constraints.
Este contenido solo está disponible en chino e inglés por el momento.
Basic Questions
Why does Klarman prefer holding large cash rather than settling for mediocre investments?
Klarman's patience is legendary in value investing:
💰 Logic of holding cash:
1. Great opportunities don't appear daily — most of the time, market pricing is fair
2. Cash is 'ammunition' — when opportunities arise (2008, 2020), you need money to act
3. Avoid 'investing for the sake of investing' — putting money in mediocre opportunities is the biggest waste
📊 Klarman's Baupost fund has held 30-50% cash for extended periods
⚠️ Cost:
- Significant underperformance in bull markets
- Must explain to investors why not fully invested
- Inflation erodes cash purchasing power
But Klarman says: 'The pain of underperformance is far less than the pain of losses.'
💰 Logic of holding cash:
1. Great opportunities don't appear daily — most of the time, market pricing is fair
2. Cash is 'ammunition' — when opportunities arise (2008, 2020), you need money to act
3. Avoid 'investing for the sake of investing' — putting money in mediocre opportunities is the biggest waste
📊 Klarman's Baupost fund has held 30-50% cash for extended periods
⚠️ Cost:
- Significant underperformance in bull markets
- Must explain to investors why not fully invested
- Inflation erodes cash purchasing power
But Klarman says: 'The pain of underperformance is far less than the pain of losses.'
Usage Tips
Is the AI's 1-10 rating reliable?
⚠️ The patience score's most important meaning: "doing nothing" is also an investment decision, and often the best one.
The rating's unique value:
- One of Klarman's most famous views: "Most investors' problem isn't doing too little, but doing too much"
- A high score doesn't necessarily mean "should buy" — it may mean "keep waiting" is the current best strategy
- A low score may reveal psychological urgency — check whether you're lowering buy standards because you "can't sit still"
Core teaching:
- Klarman's Baupost fund sometimes held 30-50% in cash — nearly heretical on Wall Street
- The "opportunity cost" of holding cash is far lower than the actual loss from buying overvalued assets
- AI can simulate "if I wait 6 months to buy" vs. "buy right now" expected return comparisons to support patient decision-making with data
The rating's unique value:
- One of Klarman's most famous views: "Most investors' problem isn't doing too little, but doing too much"
- A high score doesn't necessarily mean "should buy" — it may mean "keep waiting" is the current best strategy
- A low score may reveal psychological urgency — check whether you're lowering buy standards because you "can't sit still"
Core teaching:
- Klarman's Baupost fund sometimes held 30-50% in cash — nearly heretical on Wall Street
- The "opportunity cost" of holding cash is far lower than the actual loss from buying overvalued assets
- AI can simulate "if I wait 6 months to buy" vs. "buy right now" expected return comparisons to support patient decision-making with data
Getting started
Does this prompt give investment advice or buy/sell calls?
No. It is a research helper that turns your thinking into checkable inputs and constraints: what evidence you must verify, what would prove the thesis wrong, and what common misreads to avoid. Treat the output as a draft, not a signal. Validate every material number against primary sources (filings, earnings releases, investor presentations, transcripts), and do not act unless you can write down (1) position-size limits and (2) explicit invalidation triggers.
What inputs should I provide for a reliable result?
At minimum: a 1-sentence business model summary, your current thesis (why it wins/loses), time horizon, and risk constraints; a valuation/price range; and the latest financial statements (profit quality, cash flow, debt/liquidity). Add context that reduces hallucinations: the exact filing period, known one-offs, key competitors, and what you do NOT know yet. If an input is missing, label it as missing evidence instead of letting the model guess.
Validation and boundaries
How do I validate the output?
Validate falsifiable claims one by one. Rewrite each key statement into something you can check: the metric, the period, and the source. Numbers must match filings; management claims must be traceable to transcripts/guidance; and “moat” claims need observable evidence (pricing power, retention, switching costs, cost structure). Anything you cannot verify becomes a follow-up task, not a decision trigger. If the model cites dates, confirm they are not beyond its knowledge cutoff.
When should I NOT act on the output?
If you cannot write down invalidation triggers, a position-size cap, or primary-source evidence for the key claims behind “Paciencia”, do not act. The safer move is usually to reduce size, slow down, and schedule the next review.
Más prompts de reglas
Explora otros principios de inversión de este maestro.
Honestidad Intelectual
Debes ser intelectualmente honesto contigo mismo. Admite cuando te equivocas. Aprende de los errores. No racionalices malas decisiones.
→Análisis Bottom-Up
Somos inversores bottom-up. No hacemos predicciones macro - encontramos valores individuales que están mal valorados.
→Situaciones Complejas
Buscamos oportunidad en la complejidad - escisiones, reestructuraciones, quiebras. Donde otros ven caos, nosotros vemos valor potencial.
→Inversión Impulsada por Catalizadores
Preferimos inversiones donde existe un catalizador para desbloquear valor. El tiempo es dinero - queremos saber por qué y cuándo se realizará el valor.
→