The Pendulum - Prompt d'Analyse IA
Use this Howard Marks rule prompt to apply “Le Pendule” to a specific company. It turns a vague opinion into a repeatable checklist: what facts you must verify, which assumptions matter most, what would invalidate the thesis, and the common misreads that create false certainty. Expect a written output you can save: a thesis summary, key risks, and next-step questions for filings and earnings calls. If a claim matters, require primary-source citations before you act. Educational only — not investment advice.
Prompt Complet
Vous êtes un analyste d'investissement formé au principe de Howard Marks : « The Pendulum ». Votre tâche est d'analyser {Nom de l'Entreprise} à travers cette perspective spécifique.
## Contexte
Howard Marks enseigne : « The mood swings of the securities markets resemble the movement of a pendulum. Although the midpoint best describes the average, the pendulum spends very little time there. »
## Cadre d'Analyse
### 1. Évaluation de l'Application du Principe
- Comment ce principe s'applique-t-il spécifiquement à {Nom de l'Entreprise} ?
- Quels aspects de l'entreprise sont les plus pertinents pour « The Pendulum » ?
- Évaluez l'alignement : Fort / Modéré / Faible
- Sur quoi Howard Marks se concentrerait-il en premier ?
### 2. Preuves Quantitatives
- Identifiez 3-5 métriques financières clés pertinentes
- Analysez ces métriques sur les 5-10 dernières années
- Comparez avec les pairs et les benchmarks historiques
- Les chiffres s'améliorent-ils, sont-ils stables ou se détériorent-ils ?
### 3. Analyse Qualitative
- Évaluez les facteurs non quantifiables que Howard Marks examinerait
- Qualité de la gestion et alignement avec ce principe
- Dynamique de l'industrie et position concurrentielle
- Durabilité du modèle d'affaires selon cette perspective
### 4. Évaluation des Risques
- Quels risques ce principe met-il en évidence pour {Nom de l'Entreprise} ?
- Quels signaux d'alarme Howard Marks identifierait-il ?
- Test de résistance : comment l'entreprise performerait-elle en conditions adverses ?
- Quel est le pire scénario selon cette perspective ?
### 5. Identification des Opportunités
- Quelles opportunités cette analyse révèle-t-elle ?
- Y a-t-il des forces cachées sous-évaluées par le marché ?
- Quels catalyseurs pourraient libérer de la valeur ?
### 6. Marks Verdict
- {Nom de l'Entreprise} passe-t-elle le test de « The Pendulum » ?
- Note : 1-10
- Recommandation claire : Acheter / Conserver / Éviter
- Résumé en un paragraphe
## Format de Sortie
Présentez des données spécifiques dans chaque section. Terminez par un verdict décisif.Related reading (close the loop)
Pick one path below to turn the output into a checkable, repeatable decision policy.
- Read the matching principleDefinition, boundaries, pitfalls, and a minimal checklist.
- Master profileMethodology summary + common misreads for this framework.
- Practice in scenariosTranslate conclusions into “what I do under stress”.
- More prompts from this masterTriangulate with multiple rules instead of anchoring on one prompt.
Educational only. Verify facts with primary sources and apply your own constraints.
Ce contenu n'est disponible qu'en chinois et en anglais pour le moment.
Basic Questions
What is the pendulum theory and how to judge where we are in the swing?
Marks observed markets swing like a pendulum between extremes:
⬅️ One end: Extreme pessimism (panic, selling, extremely low valuations)
➡️ Other end: Extreme optimism (euphoria, chasing, extremely high valuations)
⏺️ Middle: Reasonable state (but the pendulum spends the least time here)
🔍 Clues for current position:
1. News headline sentiment (all bad news = near pessimistic extreme)
2. IPO market heat (IPO frenzy = near optimistic extreme)
3. Credit standard tightness (easy lending = near optimistic extreme)
4. People around you (taxi drivers discussing stocks = extreme optimism)
⬅️ One end: Extreme pessimism (panic, selling, extremely low valuations)
➡️ Other end: Extreme optimism (euphoria, chasing, extremely high valuations)
⏺️ Middle: Reasonable state (but the pendulum spends the least time here)
🔍 Clues for current position:
1. News headline sentiment (all bad news = near pessimistic extreme)
2. IPO market heat (IPO frenzy = near optimistic extreme)
3. Credit standard tightness (easy lending = near optimistic extreme)
4. People around you (taxi drivers discussing stocks = extreme optimism)
Usage Tips
Is the AI's 1-10 rating reliable?
⚠️ The cycle score's value lies in "positioning" not "predicting" — it tells you where the pendulum is, but cannot precisely predict when it will reverse.
The rating's special significance:
- Extreme high/low scores are most informative — the pendulum is more likely to reverse at extreme positions
- Scores in the middle range have lower discriminative power, as the pendulum rarely lingers at the midpoint
- The speed of score change matters more than the absolute value — rapid changes suggest violent sentiment swings
Usage principles:
- The pendulum won't exactly repeat history, but the tendency toward "mean reversion" is eternal
- When the score shows an extreme, don't try to pick the exact bottom — scale in gradually
- AI's cycle assessment is based on historical patterns, but each cycle has unique drivers
The rating's special significance:
- Extreme high/low scores are most informative — the pendulum is more likely to reverse at extreme positions
- Scores in the middle range have lower discriminative power, as the pendulum rarely lingers at the midpoint
- The speed of score change matters more than the absolute value — rapid changes suggest violent sentiment swings
Usage principles:
- The pendulum won't exactly repeat history, but the tendency toward "mean reversion" is eternal
- When the score shows an extreme, don't try to pick the exact bottom — scale in gradually
- AI's cycle assessment is based on historical patterns, but each cycle has unique drivers
Getting started
Does this prompt give investment advice or buy/sell calls?
No. It is a research helper that turns your thinking into checkable inputs and constraints: what evidence you must verify, what would prove the thesis wrong, and what common misreads to avoid. Treat the output as a draft, not a signal. Validate every material number against primary sources (filings, earnings releases, investor presentations, transcripts), and do not act unless you can write down (1) position-size limits and (2) explicit invalidation triggers.
What inputs should I provide for a reliable result?
At minimum: a 1-sentence business model summary, your current thesis (why it wins/loses), time horizon, and risk constraints; a valuation/price range; and the latest financial statements (profit quality, cash flow, debt/liquidity). Add context that reduces hallucinations: the exact filing period, known one-offs, key competitors, and what you do NOT know yet. If an input is missing, label it as missing evidence instead of letting the model guess.
Validation and boundaries
How do I validate the output?
Validate falsifiable claims one by one. Rewrite each key statement into something you can check: the metric, the period, and the source. Numbers must match filings; management claims must be traceable to transcripts/guidance; and “moat” claims need observable evidence (pricing power, retention, switching costs, cost structure). Anything you cannot verify becomes a follow-up task, not a decision trigger. If the model cites dates, confirm they are not beyond its knowledge cutoff.
When should I NOT act on the output?
If you cannot write down invalidation triggers, a position-size cap, or primary-source evidence for the key claims behind “Le Pendule”, do not act. The safer move is usually to reduce size, slow down, and schedule the next review.
Plus de Prompts de Règles
Explorez d'autres principes d'investissement de ce maître.
Savoir Ce Que Vous Ne Savez Pas
Le plus grand avantage en investissement est l'humilité - savoir ce que vous ne savez pas et agir en conséquence.
→Opportunisme Patient
La clé du succès en investissement est d'attendre le bon moment - l'opportunité qui offre une valeur exceptionnelle avec un risque limité.
→Contrarien
Pour obtenir des résultats supérieurs, vous devez avoir des opinions non consensuelles sur la valeur, et elles doivent être exactes.
→Combattre les Influences Négatives
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→