Jim Rogers名言

Jim Rogers全部名言

1. "Commodities move in long cycles. Buy when nobody wants them; sell when everyone does."

   出处: Hot Commodities (2004)

   Commodities move in long cycles requiring patient timing at extremes.

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2. "The best opportunities are often outside your home country. Look at the whole world."

   出处: Investment Biker (1994)

   Global opportunity seeking beats home country bias for superior returns.

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3. "Research exhaustively before investing. The person who knows the most usually wins."

   出处: Adventure Capitalist (2003)

   Exhaustive research provides the knowledge edge that generates superior returns.

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4. "Buy when there is blood in the streets, even if it is your own. Panic creates opportunity."

   出处: Hot Commodities (2004)

   Buy during maximum fear when blood is running in the streets.

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5. "Emerging markets offer better growth prospects than developed markets. Look East and South."

   出处: Adventure Capitalist (2003)

   Emerging markets offer superior growth prospects compared to developed economies.

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6. "Understand supply and demand fundamentals. Prices ultimately follow these basics."

   出处: Hot Commodities (2004)

   Supply and demand fundamentals ultimately determine all commodity prices.

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7. "Travel to see investments firsthand. Ground-level research reveals what reports cannot."

   出处: Investment Biker (1994)

   Travel to see investments firsthand reveals insights reports cannot provide.

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8. "When everyone agrees, something else is going to happen. The crowd is usually wrong at extremes."

   出处: Hot Commodities (2004)

   When everyone agrees on market direction, something else will happen.

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9. "Wait for the right moment. Being early is the same as being wrong in investing."

   出处: Adventure Capitalist (2003)

   Timing matters in investing because being early equals being wrong.

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10. "Study financial history. Markets repeat patterns because human nature doesnt change."

    出处: Adventure Capitalist (2003)

    Study financial history because market patterns repeat as human nature persists.

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11. "Never overpay for a security, no matter how exciting the story. The price you pay determines your return. Discipline in valuation is the foundation of investment success."

    出处: Hot Commodities (2004)

    Discipline in valuation determines investment success.

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12. "Always estimate the intrinsic value of a business before investing. Compare price to value, not price to past price. The gap between price and value is where profits are made."

    出处: Hot Commodities (2004)

    Compare price to intrinsic value, not to past prices.

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13. "Use conservative assumptions in your valuation. Optimistic projections lead to overpaying. It is better to underestimate value and be pleasantly surprised than to overestimate and be disappointed."

    出处: Hot Commodities (2004)

    Conservative valuation protects against overpaying.

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14. "Invest in businesses with durable competitive advantages, strong cash flows, and management integrity. Quality businesses compound wealth over time and reduce downside risk."

    出处: Hot Commodities (2004)

    Quality businesses compound wealth and reduce risk.

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15. "Before investing, identify the moat — the sustainable competitive advantage that protects the business from competitors. No moat means no long-term edge."

    出处: Hot Commodities (2004)

    Identify sustainable competitive moats before investing.

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16. "Not all earnings are equal. Look for recurring, cash-backed earnings rather than accounting profits. High-quality earnings are predictable, sustainable, and convertible to free cash flow."

    出处: Hot Commodities (2004)

    Evaluate earnings quality, not just quantity.

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17. "The most successful investors stay within their circle of competence. Know what you understand well and resist the temptation to venture outside it."

    出处: Hot Commodities (2004)

    Stay within your circle of competence.

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18. "Surface-level knowledge is dangerous in investing. Develop deep expertise in your areas of focus. True understanding means knowing what could go wrong."

    出处: Hot Commodities (2004)

    Develop deep expertise, not surface knowledge.

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19. "Expand your circle of competence gradually over time. Each new area of expertise adds potential opportunities, but only if mastered thoroughly."

    出处: Hot Commodities (2004)

    Expand expertise gradually, one area at a time.

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20. "Markets are driven by fear and greed. The disciplined investor exploits these emotions rather than being controlled by them. Emotional control is the key competitive advantage."

    出处: Hot Commodities (2004)

    Exploit market emotions rather than being controlled by them.

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21. "Understanding crowd psychology is essential. When everyone agrees, the opportunity has usually passed. The best time to act is when the crowd is most fearful or most confident."

    出处: Hot Commodities (2004)

    Act when the crowd is at emotional extremes.

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22. "The best investments often feel uncomfortable because they go against popular opinion. If everyone loves a stock, it's probably overpriced. If everyone hates it, investigate."

    出处: Hot Commodities (2004)

    Good investments often feel uncomfortable.

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23. "Before considering how much you can make, consider how much you can lose. Risk management is not about avoiding risk entirely, but about understanding and controlling it."

    出处: Hot Commodities (2004)

    Consider the downside before the upside.

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24. "The size of your position should reflect your conviction and the risk involved. Never bet so large that a single mistake can wipe out your portfolio."

    出处: Hot Commodities (2004)

    Size positions based on conviction and risk.

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25. "Diversification is a protection against ignorance. Use it wisely — enough to reduce risk, but not so much that you dilute your best ideas."

    出处: Hot Commodities (2004)

    Diversify wisely without diluting best ideas.

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26. "In a world obsessed with quarterly results, patience is the ultimate competitive advantage. Great investments often take years to play out fully."

    出处: Hot Commodities (2004)

    Patience is the ultimate competitive advantage.

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27. "Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. Those who understand it earn it; those who don't, pay it. Time is the most valuable asset in investing."

    出处: Hot Commodities (2004)

    Compounding is the most powerful force in investing.

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28. "The cardinal rule of investing: buy only when the price is significantly below your conservative estimate of intrinsic value. This builds in protection against error."

    出处: Hot Commodities (2004)

    Buy only at prices well below intrinsic value.

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29. "The stock market is a no-called-strike game. You don't have to swing at every pitch. Wait for the fat pitch — the opportunity that offers exceptional risk-reward."

    出处: Hot Commodities (2004)

    Wait for exceptional risk-reward opportunities.

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30. "Have clear, pre-defined sell criteria. Sell when: your thesis is broken, valuation is fully realized, or a significantly better opportunity appears."

    出处: Hot Commodities (2004)

    Follow pre-defined sell criteria without emotion.

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31. "Regularly review whether your original reasons for owning a stock still hold. If the facts change, change your mind. Holding a broken thesis is the costliest mistake."

    出处: Hot Commodities (2004)

    Regularly challenge your original investment thesis.

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32. "After every sell, review the outcome. Did you sell too early, too late, or at the right time? Post-mortems on sell decisions improve future judgment."

    出处: Hot Commodities (2004)

    Post-mortem every sell decision to improve.

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33. "Draw insights from multiple disciplines — psychology, history, mathematics, and science — to build a lattice of mental models for better investment decisions."

    出处: Hot Commodities (2004)

    Use insights from multiple disciplines for better decisions.

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34. "Think in probabilities, not certainties. Every investment has a range of possible outcomes. Weight your decisions by the expected value of each scenario."

    出处: Hot Commodities (2004)

    Think in probabilities, not certainties.

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35. "Instead of asking how to succeed, ask how to avoid failure. Inverting problems often reveals insights that forward thinking misses."

    出处: Hot Commodities (2004)

    Invert problems to find insights forward thinking misses.

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36. "A clear investment philosophy provides an anchor in turbulent times. Know what you believe, why you believe it, and stick to it when tested."

    出处: Hot Commodities (2004)

    A clear philosophy anchors you in turbulent times.

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37. "Focus on process, not outcomes. A good process can produce bad outcomes in the short run, but will generate superior results over time."

    出处: Hot Commodities (2004)

    Good process outperforms lucky outcomes over time.

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38. "Develop your own investment philosophy through study and experience. Copying others without understanding why leads to confusion when strategies are tested."

    出处: Hot Commodities (2004)

    Develop your own philosophy through study and experience.

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39. "Evaluate management by their actions, not their words. Look for a track record of capital allocation, shareholder communication, and aligned incentives."

    出处: Hot Commodities (2004)

    Judge management by actions, not words.

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40. "Understand the industry structure before evaluating any company. Industry economics often matter more than company-specific factors in determining returns."

    出处: Hot Commodities (2004)

    Industry structure shapes investment outcomes.

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41. "The principles that make you a great investor — patience, discipline, humility, and continuous learning — are the same principles that lead to a great life."

    出处: Hot Commodities (2004)

    Investment principles apply to life too.

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42. "The best investors never stop learning. Read voraciously, study history, learn from mistakes, and stay curious about the world. Knowledge compounds like interest."

    出处: Hot Commodities (2004)

    Knowledge compounds like interest for investors.

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43. "Reputation takes a lifetime to build and moments to destroy. In investing and in life, integrity is the most valuable asset you can possess."

    出处: Hot Commodities (2004)

    Integrity is the most valuable asset.

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44. "The greatest enemy of the investor is himself. Fear, greed, regret, and pride cause more losses than any economic event. Master your emotions to master the market."

    出处: Hot Commodities (2004)

    Master your emotions to master the market.

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45. "Know the common behavioral biases that trap investors: anchoring, confirmation bias, loss aversion, and herding. Awareness is the first step to prevention."

    出处: Hot Commodities (2004)

    Know your behavioral biases to avoid them.

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46. "The market exists to serve you, not to guide you. Use market prices to your advantage — buy when the market offers bargains and sell when it offers premiums."

    出处: Hot Commodities (2004)

    Use the market as your servant, not your guide.

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47. "Markets move in cycles driven by human emotion. Understanding where you are in the cycle helps you prepare for what comes next and position accordingly."

    出处: Hot Commodities (2004)

    Understand where you are in the market cycle.

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48. "In the short run, the market is a voting machine; in the long run, it's a weighing machine. Prices can diverge wildly from value, but eventually converge."

    出处: Hot Commodities (2004)

    Prices diverge from value short-term but converge long-term.

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49. "A systematic approach to investing removes emotion and ensures consistency. Document your process, follow your rules, and review regularly."

    出处: Hot Commodities (2004)

    A systematic approach ensures consistent investing.

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50. "Use an investment checklist to ensure you don't skip critical steps. Aviation-style checklists prevent costly oversights in investment analysis."

    出处: Hot Commodities (2004)

    Use checklists to prevent investment oversights.

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