Avoid Speculation - Prompt d'Analyse IA
Use this Benjamin Graham rule prompt to apply “Évitez la Spéculation” to a specific company. It turns a vague opinion into a repeatable checklist: what facts you must verify, which assumptions matter most, what would invalidate the thesis, and the common misreads that create false certainty. Expect a written output you can save: a thesis summary, key risks, and next-step questions for filings and earnings calls. If a claim matters, require primary-source citations before you act. Educational only — not investment advice.
Prompt Complet
Vous êtes un analyste d'investissement formé au principe de Benjamin Graham : « Avoid Speculation ». Votre tâche est d'analyser {Nom de l'Entreprise} à travers cette perspective spécifique.
## Contexte
Benjamin Graham enseigne : « The defensive investor will avoid the temptation to stray into the unknown in search of higher returns. »
## Cadre d'Analyse
### 1. Évaluation de l'Application du Principe
- Comment ce principe s'applique-t-il spécifiquement à {Nom de l'Entreprise} ?
- Quels aspects de l'entreprise sont les plus pertinents pour « Avoid Speculation » ?
- Évaluez l'alignement : Fort / Modéré / Faible
- Sur quoi Benjamin Graham se concentrerait-il en premier ?
### 2. Preuves Quantitatives
- Identifiez 3-5 métriques financières clés pertinentes
- Analysez ces métriques sur les 5-10 dernières années
- Comparez avec les pairs et les benchmarks historiques
- Les chiffres s'améliorent-ils, sont-ils stables ou se détériorent-ils ?
### 3. Analyse Qualitative
- Évaluez les facteurs non quantifiables que Benjamin Graham examinerait
- Qualité de la gestion et alignement avec ce principe
- Dynamique de l'industrie et position concurrentielle
- Durabilité du modèle d'affaires selon cette perspective
### 4. Évaluation des Risques
- Quels risques ce principe met-il en évidence pour {Nom de l'Entreprise} ?
- Quels signaux d'alarme Benjamin Graham identifierait-il ?
- Test de résistance : comment l'entreprise performerait-elle en conditions adverses ?
- Quel est le pire scénario selon cette perspective ?
### 5. Identification des Opportunités
- Quelles opportunités cette analyse révèle-t-elle ?
- Y a-t-il des forces cachées sous-évaluées par le marché ?
- Quels catalyseurs pourraient libérer de la valeur ?
### 6. Graham Verdict
- {Nom de l'Entreprise} passe-t-elle le test de « Avoid Speculation » ?
- Note : 1-10
- Recommandation claire : Acheter / Conserver / Éviter
- Résumé en un paragraphe
## Format de Sortie
Présentez des données spécifiques dans chaque section. Terminez par un verdict décisif.Related reading (close the loop)
Pick one path below to turn the output into a checkable, repeatable decision policy.
- Read the matching principleDefinition, boundaries, pitfalls, and a minimal checklist.
- Master profileMethodology summary + common misreads for this framework.
- Practice in scenariosTranslate conclusions into “what I do under stress”.
- More prompts from this masterTriangulate with multiple rules instead of anchoring on one prompt.
Educational only. Verify facts with primary sources and apply your own constraints.
Ce contenu n'est disponible qu'en chinois et en anglais pour le moment.
Basic Questions
What is the fundamental difference between investing and speculating?
Graham defined this with strict criteria:
📌 Investment: An operation that, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and an adequate return
📌 Speculation: Everything that doesn't meet the above criteria
Key distinctions:
1. Whether thorough fundamental analysis was conducted
2. Whether principal safety is prioritized (not just returns)
3. Whether return expectations are reasonable (not fantasies)
Many people think they're investing when they're actually speculating — chasing hot stocks, trading frequently, or buying on tips.
📌 Investment: An operation that, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and an adequate return
📌 Speculation: Everything that doesn't meet the above criteria
Key distinctions:
1. Whether thorough fundamental analysis was conducted
2. Whether principal safety is prioritized (not just returns)
3. Whether return expectations are reasonable (not fantasies)
Many people think they're investing when they're actually speculating — chasing hot stocks, trading frequently, or buying on tips.
Usage Tips
Is the AI's 1-10 rating reliable?
⚠️ AI's "speculation risk score" helps objectively judge a trade's speculative degree, avoiding self-deception.
How to interpret:
- **8-10 (pure investment)**: Solid fundamental support, reasonable valuation, margin of safety — meets Graham's definition of investment
- **5-7 (gray zone)**: Some logic holds but speculative elements exist, like over-relying on growth expectations while ignoring current valuation
- **1-4 (highly speculative)**: Lacks fundamental support, driven mainly by price momentum or market sentiment
Graham's core teaching: An investment operation promises safety of principal and adequate return after thorough analysis. Anything not meeting these criteria is speculation. AI helps you honestly face this distinction.
How to interpret:
- **8-10 (pure investment)**: Solid fundamental support, reasonable valuation, margin of safety — meets Graham's definition of investment
- **5-7 (gray zone)**: Some logic holds but speculative elements exist, like over-relying on growth expectations while ignoring current valuation
- **1-4 (highly speculative)**: Lacks fundamental support, driven mainly by price momentum or market sentiment
Graham's core teaching: An investment operation promises safety of principal and adequate return after thorough analysis. Anything not meeting these criteria is speculation. AI helps you honestly face this distinction.
Getting started
Does this prompt give investment advice or buy/sell calls?
No. It is a research helper that turns your thinking into checkable inputs and constraints: what evidence you must verify, what would prove the thesis wrong, and what common misreads to avoid. Treat the output as a draft, not a signal. Validate every material number against primary sources (filings, earnings releases, investor presentations, transcripts), and do not act unless you can write down (1) position-size limits and (2) explicit invalidation triggers.
What inputs should I provide for a reliable result?
At minimum: a 1-sentence business model summary, your current thesis (why it wins/loses), time horizon, and risk constraints; a valuation/price range; and the latest financial statements (profit quality, cash flow, debt/liquidity). Add context that reduces hallucinations: the exact filing period, known one-offs, key competitors, and what you do NOT know yet. If an input is missing, label it as missing evidence instead of letting the model guess.
Validation and boundaries
How do I validate the output?
Validate falsifiable claims one by one. Rewrite each key statement into something you can check: the metric, the period, and the source. Numbers must match filings; management claims must be traceable to transcripts/guidance; and “moat” claims need observable evidence (pricing power, retention, switching costs, cost structure). Anything you cannot verify becomes a follow-up task, not a decision trigger. If the model cites dates, confirm they are not beyond its knowledge cutoff.
When should I NOT act on the output?
If you cannot write down invalidation triggers, a position-size cap, or primary-source evidence for the key claims behind “Évitez la Spéculation”, do not act. The safer move is usually to reduce size, slow down, and schedule the next review.
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