All-Weather Strategy - Prompt d'Analyse IA
Use this Ray Dalio rule prompt to apply “Stratégie Tous Temps” to a specific company. It turns a vague opinion into a repeatable checklist: what facts you must verify, which assumptions matter most, what would invalidate the thesis, and the common misreads that create false certainty. Expect a written output you can save: a thesis summary, key risks, and next-step questions for filings and earnings calls. If a claim matters, require primary-source citations before you act. Educational only — not investment advice.
Prompt Complet
Vous êtes un analyste d'investissement formé au principe de Ray Dalio : « All-Weather Strategy ». Votre tâche est d'analyser {Nom de l'Entreprise} à travers cette perspective spécifique.
## Contexte
Ray Dalio enseigne : « Structure your portfolio to perform well across all economic environments - growth, recession, inflation, and deflation. »
## Cadre d'Analyse
### 1. Évaluation de l'Application du Principe
- Comment ce principe s'applique-t-il spécifiquement à {Nom de l'Entreprise} ?
- Quels aspects de l'entreprise sont les plus pertinents pour « All-Weather Strategy » ?
- Évaluez l'alignement : Fort / Modéré / Faible
- Sur quoi Ray Dalio se concentrerait-il en premier ?
### 2. Preuves Quantitatives
- Identifiez 3-5 métriques financières clés pertinentes
- Analysez ces métriques sur les 5-10 dernières années
- Comparez avec les pairs et les benchmarks historiques
- Les chiffres s'améliorent-ils, sont-ils stables ou se détériorent-ils ?
### 3. Analyse Qualitative
- Évaluez les facteurs non quantifiables que Ray Dalio examinerait
- Qualité de la gestion et alignement avec ce principe
- Dynamique de l'industrie et position concurrentielle
- Durabilité du modèle d'affaires selon cette perspective
### 4. Évaluation des Risques
- Quels risques ce principe met-il en évidence pour {Nom de l'Entreprise} ?
- Quels signaux d'alarme Ray Dalio identifierait-il ?
- Test de résistance : comment l'entreprise performerait-elle en conditions adverses ?
- Quel est le pire scénario selon cette perspective ?
### 5. Identification des Opportunités
- Quelles opportunités cette analyse révèle-t-elle ?
- Y a-t-il des forces cachées sous-évaluées par le marché ?
- Quels catalyseurs pourraient libérer de la valeur ?
### 6. Dalio Verdict
- {Nom de l'Entreprise} passe-t-elle le test de « All-Weather Strategy » ?
- Note : 1-10
- Recommandation claire : Acheter / Conserver / Éviter
- Résumé en un paragraphe
## Format de Sortie
Présentez des données spécifiques dans chaque section. Terminez par un verdict décisif.Related reading (close the loop)
Pick one path below to turn the output into a checkable, repeatable decision policy.
- Read the matching principleDefinition, boundaries, pitfalls, and a minimal checklist.
- Master profileMethodology summary + common misreads for this framework.
- Practice in scenariosTranslate conclusions into “what I do under stress”.
- More prompts from this masterTriangulate with multiple rules instead of anchoring on one prompt.
Educational only. Verify facts with primary sources and apply your own constraints.
Ce contenu n'est disponible qu'en chinois et en anglais pour le moment.
Basic Questions
How does the all-weather portfolio make money in any economic environment?
Dalio divides economic environments into four and allocates corresponding assets:
📊 Four-quadrant framework:
1. Rising growth + Rising inflation → Commodities, TIPS
2. Rising growth + Falling inflation → Stocks
3. Falling growth + Rising inflation → TIPS, Gold
4. Falling growth + Falling inflation → Government bonds
🎯 Core idea:
- You don't know which environment is coming, so prepare for all
- Risk parity: Each environment's assets contribute equal risk
- Goal is 'never too bad in any situation,' not 'best in one situation'
📊 Four-quadrant framework:
1. Rising growth + Rising inflation → Commodities, TIPS
2. Rising growth + Falling inflation → Stocks
3. Falling growth + Rising inflation → TIPS, Gold
4. Falling growth + Falling inflation → Government bonds
🎯 Core idea:
- You don't know which environment is coming, so prepare for all
- Risk parity: Each environment's assets contribute equal risk
- Goal is 'never too bad in any situation,' not 'best in one situation'
Usage Tips
Is the AI's 1-10 rating reliable?
⚠️ The All Weather score measures "portfolio environmental adaptability," not the quality of individual assets.
The rating's unique value:
- Helps you understand your portfolio's vulnerability across four quadrants: growth above/below expectations x inflation above/below expectations
- A high score means the portfolio has reasonable hedges across multiple economic environments, not that returns will be maximized
- Compare All Weather scores across different allocation schemes to find the optimal risk balance
Core limitations:
- The All Weather strategy pursues robustness over maximum returns — in any single environment, concentrated allocation may outperform
- AI's macro environment assessment is based on historical patterns; future economic quadrants may present unprecedented combinations
- Historical correlations may break down under extreme market conditions ("all assets declining simultaneously")
The rating's unique value:
- Helps you understand your portfolio's vulnerability across four quadrants: growth above/below expectations x inflation above/below expectations
- A high score means the portfolio has reasonable hedges across multiple economic environments, not that returns will be maximized
- Compare All Weather scores across different allocation schemes to find the optimal risk balance
Core limitations:
- The All Weather strategy pursues robustness over maximum returns — in any single environment, concentrated allocation may outperform
- AI's macro environment assessment is based on historical patterns; future economic quadrants may present unprecedented combinations
- Historical correlations may break down under extreme market conditions ("all assets declining simultaneously")
Getting started
Does this prompt give investment advice or buy/sell calls?
No. It is a research helper that turns your thinking into checkable inputs and constraints: what evidence you must verify, what would prove the thesis wrong, and what common misreads to avoid. Treat the output as a draft, not a signal. Validate every material number against primary sources (filings, earnings releases, investor presentations, transcripts), and do not act unless you can write down (1) position-size limits and (2) explicit invalidation triggers.
What inputs should I provide for a reliable result?
At minimum: a 1-sentence business model summary, your current thesis (why it wins/loses), time horizon, and risk constraints; a valuation/price range; and the latest financial statements (profit quality, cash flow, debt/liquidity). Add context that reduces hallucinations: the exact filing period, known one-offs, key competitors, and what you do NOT know yet. If an input is missing, label it as missing evidence instead of letting the model guess.
Validation and boundaries
How do I validate the output?
Validate falsifiable claims one by one. Rewrite each key statement into something you can check: the metric, the period, and the source. Numbers must match filings; management claims must be traceable to transcripts/guidance; and “moat” claims need observable evidence (pricing power, retention, switching costs, cost structure). Anything you cannot verify becomes a follow-up task, not a decision trigger. If the model cites dates, confirm they are not beyond its knowledge cutoff.
When should I NOT act on the output?
If you cannot write down invalidation triggers, a position-size cap, or primary-source evidence for the key claims behind “Stratégie Tous Temps”, do not act. The safer move is usually to reduce size, slow down, and schedule the next review.
Plus de Prompts de Règles
Explorez d'autres principes d'investissement de ce maître.
Vision d'Ensemble
Ne vous perdez pas dans les détails. Gardez toujours la vue d'ensemble à l'esprit et priorisez en conséquence.
→Les Erreurs comme Apprentissage
Chaque fois que vous faites une erreur, vous devriez être reconnaissant car vous avez l'occasion d'en tirer des leçons et de vous améliorer.
→La Machine Économique
L'économie fonctionne comme une machine simple. Trois forces principales la dirigent: croissance de la productivité, cycle de dette à court terme et cycle de dette à long terme.
→Processus en Cinq Étapes
Utilisez le processus en 5 étapes: 1) Définir des objectifs clairs, 2) Identifier les problèmes, 3) Diagnostiquer les causes profondes, 4) Concevoir des solutions, 5) Exécuter.
→