The Economic Machine - Prompt d'Analyse IA
Use this Ray Dalio rule prompt to apply “La Machine Économique” to a specific company. It turns a vague opinion into a repeatable checklist: what facts you must verify, which assumptions matter most, what would invalidate the thesis, and the common misreads that create false certainty. Expect a written output you can save: a thesis summary, key risks, and next-step questions for filings and earnings calls. If a claim matters, require primary-source citations before you act. Educational only — not investment advice.
Prompt Complet
Vous êtes un analyste d'investissement formé au principe de Ray Dalio : « The Economic Machine ». Votre tâche est d'analyser {Nom de l'Entreprise} à travers cette perspective spécifique.
## Contexte
Ray Dalio enseigne : « The economy works like a simple machine. Three main forces drive it: productivity growth, short-term debt cycle, and long-term debt cycle. »
## Cadre d'Analyse
### 1. Évaluation de l'Application du Principe
- Comment ce principe s'applique-t-il spécifiquement à {Nom de l'Entreprise} ?
- Quels aspects de l'entreprise sont les plus pertinents pour « The Economic Machine » ?
- Évaluez l'alignement : Fort / Modéré / Faible
- Sur quoi Ray Dalio se concentrerait-il en premier ?
### 2. Preuves Quantitatives
- Identifiez 3-5 métriques financières clés pertinentes
- Analysez ces métriques sur les 5-10 dernières années
- Comparez avec les pairs et les benchmarks historiques
- Les chiffres s'améliorent-ils, sont-ils stables ou se détériorent-ils ?
### 3. Analyse Qualitative
- Évaluez les facteurs non quantifiables que Ray Dalio examinerait
- Qualité de la gestion et alignement avec ce principe
- Dynamique de l'industrie et position concurrentielle
- Durabilité du modèle d'affaires selon cette perspective
### 4. Évaluation des Risques
- Quels risques ce principe met-il en évidence pour {Nom de l'Entreprise} ?
- Quels signaux d'alarme Ray Dalio identifierait-il ?
- Test de résistance : comment l'entreprise performerait-elle en conditions adverses ?
- Quel est le pire scénario selon cette perspective ?
### 5. Identification des Opportunités
- Quelles opportunités cette analyse révèle-t-elle ?
- Y a-t-il des forces cachées sous-évaluées par le marché ?
- Quels catalyseurs pourraient libérer de la valeur ?
### 6. Dalio Verdict
- {Nom de l'Entreprise} passe-t-elle le test de « The Economic Machine » ?
- Note : 1-10
- Recommandation claire : Acheter / Conserver / Éviter
- Résumé en un paragraphe
## Format de Sortie
Présentez des données spécifiques dans chaque section. Terminez par un verdict décisif.Related reading (close the loop)
Pick one path below to turn the output into a checkable, repeatable decision policy.
- Read the matching principleDefinition, boundaries, pitfalls, and a minimal checklist.
- Master profileMethodology summary + common misreads for this framework.
- Practice in scenariosTranslate conclusions into “what I do under stress”.
- More prompts from this masterTriangulate with multiple rules instead of anchoring on one prompt.
Educational only. Verify facts with primary sources and apply your own constraints.
Ce contenu n'est disponible qu'en chinois et en anglais pour le moment.
Basic Questions
How does Dalio's 'economic machine' model simplify complex economics?
Dalio compares the economy to a machine made of simple parts:
⚙️ Three drivers of the economic machine:
1. Productivity growth (long-term steady rise, 1-2%/year)
2. Short-term debt cycle (5-8 year cycles, credit expansion → contraction)
3. Long-term debt cycle (50-75 years, leverage from low to unsustainable)
📌 Practical value:
- Judge where we are in the short-term cycle (expansion? contraction?)
- Monitor credit growth speed — beware when credit growth far exceeds income growth
- Understand why central banks adjust rates (they're regulating machine speed)
⚙️ Three drivers of the economic machine:
1. Productivity growth (long-term steady rise, 1-2%/year)
2. Short-term debt cycle (5-8 year cycles, credit expansion → contraction)
3. Long-term debt cycle (50-75 years, leverage from low to unsustainable)
📌 Practical value:
- Judge where we are in the short-term cycle (expansion? contraction?)
- Monitor credit growth speed — beware when credit growth far exceeds income growth
- Understand why central banks adjust rates (they're regulating machine speed)
Usage Tips
Is the AI's 1-10 rating reliable?
⚠️ The economic machine score reflects "the current economic stage's impact on the company," not the company's inherent quality.
The rating's unique value:
- Helps you understand whether the company's performance is "driven by its own capabilities" or "riding economic cycle tailwinds" — the latter is unsustainable
- At different stages of the economic machine, the same company faces entirely different external environments
- Comparing the same company's score across different economic stages reveals its "cycle immunity"
Core limitations:
- Dalio's economic machine model is a simplification; the real economy is far more complex
- AI may not accurately determine the precise position within the long-term debt cycle
- Sudden policy shifts can alter the model's predicted trajectory
The rating's unique value:
- Helps you understand whether the company's performance is "driven by its own capabilities" or "riding economic cycle tailwinds" — the latter is unsustainable
- At different stages of the economic machine, the same company faces entirely different external environments
- Comparing the same company's score across different economic stages reveals its "cycle immunity"
Core limitations:
- Dalio's economic machine model is a simplification; the real economy is far more complex
- AI may not accurately determine the precise position within the long-term debt cycle
- Sudden policy shifts can alter the model's predicted trajectory
Getting started
Does this prompt give investment advice or buy/sell calls?
No. It is a research helper that turns your thinking into checkable inputs and constraints: what evidence you must verify, what would prove the thesis wrong, and what common misreads to avoid. Treat the output as a draft, not a signal. Validate every material number against primary sources (filings, earnings releases, investor presentations, transcripts), and do not act unless you can write down (1) position-size limits and (2) explicit invalidation triggers.
What inputs should I provide for a reliable result?
At minimum: a 1-sentence business model summary, your current thesis (why it wins/loses), time horizon, and risk constraints; a valuation/price range; and the latest financial statements (profit quality, cash flow, debt/liquidity). Add context that reduces hallucinations: the exact filing period, known one-offs, key competitors, and what you do NOT know yet. If an input is missing, label it as missing evidence instead of letting the model guess.
Validation and boundaries
How do I validate the output?
Validate falsifiable claims one by one. Rewrite each key statement into something you can check: the metric, the period, and the source. Numbers must match filings; management claims must be traceable to transcripts/guidance; and “moat” claims need observable evidence (pricing power, retention, switching costs, cost structure). Anything you cannot verify becomes a follow-up task, not a decision trigger. If the model cites dates, confirm they are not beyond its knowledge cutoff.
When should I NOT act on the output?
If you cannot write down invalidation triggers, a position-size cap, or primary-source evidence for the key claims behind “La Machine Économique”, do not act. The safer move is usually to reduce size, slow down, and schedule the next review.
Plus de Prompts de Règles
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Vision d'Ensemble
Ne vous perdez pas dans les détails. Gardez toujours la vue d'ensemble à l'esprit et priorisez en conséquence.
→Les Erreurs comme Apprentissage
Chaque fois que vous faites une erreur, vous devriez être reconnaissant car vous avez l'occasion d'en tirer des leçons et de vous améliorer.
→Stratégie Tous Temps
Structurez votre portefeuille pour performer dans tous les environnements économiques - croissance, récession, inflation et déflation.
→Processus en Cinq Étapes
Utilisez le processus en 5 étapes: 1) Définir des objectifs clairs, 2) Identifier les problèmes, 3) Diagnostiquer les causes profondes, 4) Concevoir des solutions, 5) Exécuter.
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