Patience - Prompt d'Analyse IA
Use this Seth Klarman rule prompt to apply “Patience” to a specific company. It turns a vague opinion into a repeatable checklist: what facts you must verify, which assumptions matter most, what would invalidate the thesis, and the common misreads that create false certainty. Expect a written output you can save: a thesis summary, key risks, and next-step questions for filings and earnings calls. If a claim matters, require primary-source citations before you act. Educational only — not investment advice.
Prompt Complet
Vous êtes un analyste d'investissement formé au principe de Seth Klarman : « Patience ». Votre tâche est d'analyser {Nom de l'Entreprise} à travers cette perspective spécifique.
## Contexte
Seth Klarman enseigne : « Patience is an essential virtue for value investors. The market will eventually recognize value, but the timing is uncertain. »
## Cadre d'Analyse
### 1. Évaluation de l'Application du Principe
- Comment ce principe s'applique-t-il spécifiquement à {Nom de l'Entreprise} ?
- Quels aspects de l'entreprise sont les plus pertinents pour « Patience » ?
- Évaluez l'alignement : Fort / Modéré / Faible
- Sur quoi Seth Klarman se concentrerait-il en premier ?
### 2. Preuves Quantitatives
- Identifiez 3-5 métriques financières clés pertinentes
- Analysez ces métriques sur les 5-10 dernières années
- Comparez avec les pairs et les benchmarks historiques
- Les chiffres s'améliorent-ils, sont-ils stables ou se détériorent-ils ?
### 3. Analyse Qualitative
- Évaluez les facteurs non quantifiables que Seth Klarman examinerait
- Qualité de la gestion et alignement avec ce principe
- Dynamique de l'industrie et position concurrentielle
- Durabilité du modèle d'affaires selon cette perspective
### 4. Évaluation des Risques
- Quels risques ce principe met-il en évidence pour {Nom de l'Entreprise} ?
- Quels signaux d'alarme Seth Klarman identifierait-il ?
- Test de résistance : comment l'entreprise performerait-elle en conditions adverses ?
- Quel est le pire scénario selon cette perspective ?
### 5. Identification des Opportunités
- Quelles opportunités cette analyse révèle-t-elle ?
- Y a-t-il des forces cachées sous-évaluées par le marché ?
- Quels catalyseurs pourraient libérer de la valeur ?
### 6. Klarman Verdict
- {Nom de l'Entreprise} passe-t-elle le test de « Patience » ?
- Note : 1-10
- Recommandation claire : Acheter / Conserver / Éviter
- Résumé en un paragraphe
## Format de Sortie
Présentez des données spécifiques dans chaque section. Terminez par un verdict décisif.Related reading (close the loop)
Pick one path below to turn the output into a checkable, repeatable decision policy.
- Read the matching principleDefinition, boundaries, pitfalls, and a minimal checklist.
- Master profileMethodology summary + common misreads for this framework.
- Practice in scenariosTranslate conclusions into “what I do under stress”.
- More prompts from this masterTriangulate with multiple rules instead of anchoring on one prompt.
Educational only. Verify facts with primary sources and apply your own constraints.
Ce contenu n'est disponible qu'en chinois et en anglais pour le moment.
Basic Questions
Why does Klarman prefer holding large cash rather than settling for mediocre investments?
Klarman's patience is legendary in value investing:
💰 Logic of holding cash:
1. Great opportunities don't appear daily — most of the time, market pricing is fair
2. Cash is 'ammunition' — when opportunities arise (2008, 2020), you need money to act
3. Avoid 'investing for the sake of investing' — putting money in mediocre opportunities is the biggest waste
📊 Klarman's Baupost fund has held 30-50% cash for extended periods
⚠️ Cost:
- Significant underperformance in bull markets
- Must explain to investors why not fully invested
- Inflation erodes cash purchasing power
But Klarman says: 'The pain of underperformance is far less than the pain of losses.'
💰 Logic of holding cash:
1. Great opportunities don't appear daily — most of the time, market pricing is fair
2. Cash is 'ammunition' — when opportunities arise (2008, 2020), you need money to act
3. Avoid 'investing for the sake of investing' — putting money in mediocre opportunities is the biggest waste
📊 Klarman's Baupost fund has held 30-50% cash for extended periods
⚠️ Cost:
- Significant underperformance in bull markets
- Must explain to investors why not fully invested
- Inflation erodes cash purchasing power
But Klarman says: 'The pain of underperformance is far less than the pain of losses.'
Usage Tips
Is the AI's 1-10 rating reliable?
⚠️ The patience score's most important meaning: "doing nothing" is also an investment decision, and often the best one.
The rating's unique value:
- One of Klarman's most famous views: "Most investors' problem isn't doing too little, but doing too much"
- A high score doesn't necessarily mean "should buy" — it may mean "keep waiting" is the current best strategy
- A low score may reveal psychological urgency — check whether you're lowering buy standards because you "can't sit still"
Core teaching:
- Klarman's Baupost fund sometimes held 30-50% in cash — nearly heretical on Wall Street
- The "opportunity cost" of holding cash is far lower than the actual loss from buying overvalued assets
- AI can simulate "if I wait 6 months to buy" vs. "buy right now" expected return comparisons to support patient decision-making with data
The rating's unique value:
- One of Klarman's most famous views: "Most investors' problem isn't doing too little, but doing too much"
- A high score doesn't necessarily mean "should buy" — it may mean "keep waiting" is the current best strategy
- A low score may reveal psychological urgency — check whether you're lowering buy standards because you "can't sit still"
Core teaching:
- Klarman's Baupost fund sometimes held 30-50% in cash — nearly heretical on Wall Street
- The "opportunity cost" of holding cash is far lower than the actual loss from buying overvalued assets
- AI can simulate "if I wait 6 months to buy" vs. "buy right now" expected return comparisons to support patient decision-making with data
Getting started
Does this prompt give investment advice or buy/sell calls?
No. It is a research helper that turns your thinking into checkable inputs and constraints: what evidence you must verify, what would prove the thesis wrong, and what common misreads to avoid. Treat the output as a draft, not a signal. Validate every material number against primary sources (filings, earnings releases, investor presentations, transcripts), and do not act unless you can write down (1) position-size limits and (2) explicit invalidation triggers.
What inputs should I provide for a reliable result?
At minimum: a 1-sentence business model summary, your current thesis (why it wins/loses), time horizon, and risk constraints; a valuation/price range; and the latest financial statements (profit quality, cash flow, debt/liquidity). Add context that reduces hallucinations: the exact filing period, known one-offs, key competitors, and what you do NOT know yet. If an input is missing, label it as missing evidence instead of letting the model guess.
Validation and boundaries
How do I validate the output?
Validate falsifiable claims one by one. Rewrite each key statement into something you can check: the metric, the period, and the source. Numbers must match filings; management claims must be traceable to transcripts/guidance; and “moat” claims need observable evidence (pricing power, retention, switching costs, cost structure). Anything you cannot verify becomes a follow-up task, not a decision trigger. If the model cites dates, confirm they are not beyond its knowledge cutoff.
When should I NOT act on the output?
If you cannot write down invalidation triggers, a position-size cap, or primary-source evidence for the key claims behind “Patience”, do not act. The safer move is usually to reduce size, slow down, and schedule the next review.
Plus de Prompts de Règles
Explorez d'autres principes d'investissement de ce maître.
Honnêteté Intellectuelle
Vous devez être intellectuellement honnête avec vous-même. Admettez quand vous avez tort. Apprenez de vos erreurs. Ne rationalisez pas les mauvaises décisions.
→Analyse Bottom-Up
Nous sommes des investisseurs bottom-up. Nous ne faisons pas de prédictions macro - nous trouvons des titres individuels mal évalués.
→Situations Complexes
Nous cherchons l'opportunité dans la complexité - scissions, restructurations, faillites. Où d'autres voient le chaos, nous voyons la valeur potentielle.
→Investissement Basé sur les Catalyseurs
Nous préférons les investissements où un catalyseur existe pour libérer la valeur. Le temps c'est de l'argent - nous voulons savoir pourquoi et quand la valeur sera réalisée.
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