Citations de Jeremy Grantham

Toutes les Citations de Jeremy Grantham

1. "Asset class returns revert to the mean. High valuations predict low future returns; low valuations predict high returns."

   Source: GMO Quarterly Letters (2010)

   High valuations predict low future returns.

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2. "Bubbles are identifiable before they burst. Watch for valuations 2+ standard deviations above historical norms."

   Source: GMO Quarterly Letters (2008)

   Bubbles are recognizable before they burst.

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3. "Being early is the same as being wrong. But in the long run, fundamentals always win."

   Source: GMO Quarterly Letters (2012)

   Being early costs you in the short run.

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4. "Most returns come from asset allocation, not security selection. Get the big picture right first."

   Source: GMO Quarterly Letters (2015)

   Asset allocation drives most portfolio returns.

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5. "Seven-year forecasts based on valuations are remarkably accurate. Short-term is noise."

   Source: GMO Quarterly Letters (2014)

   Seven-year forecasts based on valuations work.

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6. "The biggest risk for professional investors is career risk, not investment risk. This distorts behavior."

   Source: GMO Quarterly Letters (2009)

   Career risk prevents rational investment decisions.

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7. "High-quality stocks with strong balance sheets outperform over time with less risk."

   Source: GMO Quarterly Letters (2016)

   Quality stocks outperform with lower risk.

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8. "Emerging markets often offer better value than developed markets. Dont ignore them."

   Source: GMO Quarterly Letters (2017)

   Emerging markets offer structural value.

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9. "Resource constraints are real and will impact markets. Think about long-term sustainability."

   Source: GMO Quarterly Letters (2011)

   Resource scarcity will reshape markets.

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10. "Markets are driven by psychology in the short term. Ignore the noise and focus on fundamentals."

    Source: GMO Quarterly Letters (2013)

    Short-term psychology obscures long-term fundamentals.

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11. "Never overpay for a security, no matter how exciting the story. The price you pay determines your return. Discipline in valuation is the foundation of investment success."

    Source: GMO Quarterly Letters (2017)

    Discipline in valuation determines investment success.

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12. "Invest in businesses with durable competitive advantages, strong cash flows, and management integrity. Quality businesses compound wealth over time and reduce downside risk."

    Source: GMO Quarterly Letters (2017)

    Quality businesses compound wealth and reduce risk.

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13. "Before investing, identify the moat — the sustainable competitive advantage that protects the business from competitors. No moat means no long-term edge."

    Source: GMO Quarterly Letters (2017)

    Identify sustainable competitive moats before investing.

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14. "The most successful investors stay within their circle of competence. Know what you understand well and resist the temptation to venture outside it."

    Source: GMO Quarterly Letters (2017)

    Stay within your circle of competence.

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15. "Surface-level knowledge is dangerous in investing. Develop deep expertise in your areas of focus. True understanding means knowing what could go wrong."

    Source: GMO Quarterly Letters (2017)

    Develop deep expertise, not surface knowledge.

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16. "Expand your circle of competence gradually over time. Each new area of expertise adds potential opportunities, but only if mastered thoroughly."

    Source: GMO Quarterly Letters (2017)

    Expand expertise gradually, one area at a time.

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17. "Markets are driven by fear and greed. The disciplined investor exploits these emotions rather than being controlled by them. Emotional control is the key competitive advantage."

    Source: GMO Quarterly Letters (2017)

    Exploit market emotions rather than being controlled by them.

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18. "Before considering how much you can make, consider how much you can lose. Risk management is not about avoiding risk entirely, but about understanding and controlling it."

    Source: GMO Quarterly Letters (2017)

    Consider the downside before the upside.

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19. "In a world obsessed with quarterly results, patience is the ultimate competitive advantage. Great investments often take years to play out fully."

    Source: GMO Quarterly Letters (2017)

    Patience is the ultimate competitive advantage.

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20. "The cardinal rule of investing: buy only when the price is significantly below your conservative estimate of intrinsic value. This builds in protection against error."

    Source: GMO Quarterly Letters (2017)

    Buy only at prices well below intrinsic value.

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21. "The stock market is a no-called-strike game. You don't have to swing at every pitch. Wait for the fat pitch — the opportunity that offers exceptional risk-reward."

    Source: GMO Quarterly Letters (2017)

    Wait for exceptional risk-reward opportunities.

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22. "Never invest in anything you don't fully understand. Thorough research is the foundation of every sound investment decision."

    Source: GMO Quarterly Letters (2017)

    Thorough research precedes every sound investment.

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23. "Have clear, pre-defined sell criteria. Sell when: your thesis is broken, valuation is fully realized, or a significantly better opportunity appears."

    Source: GMO Quarterly Letters (2017)

    Follow pre-defined sell criteria without emotion.

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24. "Regularly review whether your original reasons for owning a stock still hold. If the facts change, change your mind. Holding a broken thesis is the costliest mistake."

    Source: GMO Quarterly Letters (2017)

    Regularly challenge your original investment thesis.

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25. "After every sell, review the outcome. Did you sell too early, too late, or at the right time? Post-mortems on sell decisions improve future judgment."

    Source: GMO Quarterly Letters (2017)

    Post-mortem every sell decision to improve.

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26. "Draw insights from multiple disciplines — psychology, history, mathematics, and science — to build a lattice of mental models for better investment decisions."

    Source: GMO Quarterly Letters (2017)

    Use insights from multiple disciplines for better decisions.

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27. "Think in probabilities, not certainties. Every investment has a range of possible outcomes. Weight your decisions by the expected value of each scenario."

    Source: GMO Quarterly Letters (2017)

    Think in probabilities, not certainties.

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28. "Instead of asking how to succeed, ask how to avoid failure. Inverting problems often reveals insights that forward thinking misses."

    Source: GMO Quarterly Letters (2017)

    Invert problems to find insights forward thinking misses.

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29. "A clear investment philosophy provides an anchor in turbulent times. Know what you believe, why you believe it, and stick to it when tested."

    Source: GMO Quarterly Letters (2017)

    A clear philosophy anchors you in turbulent times.

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30. "Focus on process, not outcomes. A good process can produce bad outcomes in the short run, but will generate superior results over time."

    Source: GMO Quarterly Letters (2017)

    Good process outperforms lucky outcomes over time.

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31. "Develop your own investment philosophy through study and experience. Copying others without understanding why leads to confusion when strategies are tested."

    Source: GMO Quarterly Letters (2017)

    Develop your own philosophy through study and experience.

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32. "Evaluate management by their actions, not their words. Look for a track record of capital allocation, shareholder communication, and aligned incentives."

    Source: GMO Quarterly Letters (2017)

    Judge management by actions, not words.

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33. "Understand the industry structure before evaluating any company. Industry economics often matter more than company-specific factors in determining returns."

    Source: GMO Quarterly Letters (2017)

    Industry structure shapes investment outcomes.

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34. "The most important skill for a CEO is capital allocation. Evaluate how management deploys capital — do they create or destroy value with their decisions?"

    Source: GMO Quarterly Letters (2017)

    Evaluate management's capital allocation skills.

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35. "The principles that make you a great investor — patience, discipline, humility, and continuous learning — are the same principles that lead to a great life."

    Source: GMO Quarterly Letters (2017)

    Investment principles apply to life too.

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36. "The best investors never stop learning. Read voraciously, study history, learn from mistakes, and stay curious about the world. Knowledge compounds like interest."

    Source: GMO Quarterly Letters (2017)

    Knowledge compounds like interest for investors.

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37. "Reputation takes a lifetime to build and moments to destroy. In investing and in life, integrity is the most valuable asset you can possess."

    Source: GMO Quarterly Letters (2017)

    Integrity is the most valuable asset.

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38. "The ideal investment is a high-quality business purchased at a fair price. Quality compounds wealth; fair prices protect capital."

    Source: GMO Quarterly Letters (2017)

    Seek quality businesses at fair prices.

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39. "Never invest in a business you cannot explain in simple terms. If you can't describe why a company is valuable, you don't understand it well enough to own it."

    Source: GMO Quarterly Letters (2017)

    Only invest in what you can explain simply.

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40. "The greatest enemy of the investor is himself. Fear, greed, regret, and pride cause more losses than any economic event. Master your emotions to master the market."

    Source: GMO Quarterly Letters (2017)

    Master your emotions to master the market.

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41. "Know the common behavioral biases that trap investors: anchoring, confirmation bias, loss aversion, and herding. Awareness is the first step to prevention."

    Source: GMO Quarterly Letters (2017)

    Know your behavioral biases to avoid them.

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42. "Think independently. The crowd is often wrong at extremes, and following popular opinion is a reliable path to mediocre returns. Form your own informed views."

    Source: GMO Quarterly Letters (2017)

    Think independently from the crowd.

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43. "The market exists to serve you, not to guide you. Use market prices to your advantage — buy when the market offers bargains and sell when it offers premiums."

    Source: GMO Quarterly Letters (2017)

    Use the market as your servant, not your guide.

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44. "Markets move in cycles driven by human emotion. Understanding where you are in the cycle helps you prepare for what comes next and position accordingly."

    Source: GMO Quarterly Letters (2017)

    Understand where you are in the market cycle.

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45. "In the short run, the market is a voting machine; in the long run, it's a weighing machine. Prices can diverge wildly from value, but eventually converge."

    Source: GMO Quarterly Letters (2017)

    Prices diverge from value short-term but converge long-term.

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46. "A systematic approach to investing removes emotion and ensures consistency. Document your process, follow your rules, and review regularly."

    Source: GMO Quarterly Letters (2017)

    A systematic approach ensures consistent investing.

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47. "Use an investment checklist to ensure you don't skip critical steps. Aviation-style checklists prevent costly oversights in investment analysis."

    Source: GMO Quarterly Letters (2017)

    Use checklists to prevent investment oversights.

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48. "Review every investment decision — wins and losses — to improve your system. The best investors treat investing as a craft that can always be refined."

    Source: GMO Quarterly Letters (2017)

    Treat investing as a craft that can always improve.

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